Being below average in the number of predicted hurricanes is a good thing.
One of the nation’s most widely trusted and highly regarded hurricane season forecasts is predicting slightly below-average activity in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, largely because of a developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, where waters are growing much warmer than normal.
The outlook from the hurricane research team at Colorado State University is calling for only 13 named storms, including six hurricanes — two of which would be “major” or packing maximum sustained wind speeds of more than 110 mph. This projection, over the six-month hurricane season that runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, would fall short of the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The CSU forecast, which has been published every April since 1995, was released Thursday and is the first authoritative hurricane season outlook issued this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration typically releases its official outlook in late May.
The article cites several reasons for the lower-than-normal number of storms, for which the El Niño condition is at the top. You can read the rest and you can look at their forecast page for more. I will just note once again that whatever the projections are, it only takes one well-placed (or poorly-placed, depending on your perspective) storm to wreck the year. We’re still dealing with the effects of the derecho and Hurricane Beryl. Let’s hope it’s nice and quiet around here this year.