Except for Greg Abbott, of course.
Rep. Tony Gonzales
It’s been about a week since now-former Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress after the Texas Republican admitted to having an unethical sexual relationship with at least one former aide, who later died by suicide.
Yet the state’s Republican governor, Greg Abbott, has yet to set a special election to fill Gonzales’ seat—and that silence is telling.
President Donald Trump carried Gonzales’ seat by just over 15 percentage points in 2024, according to data from The Downballot. In a normal year, that would make this seat a GOP lock.
However, this election cycle has been anything but normal.
Last year, Trump pulled New York Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to serve as ambassador to the United Nations because he worried her seat would be competitive in a special election. And Trump carried Stefanik’s seat by nearly 21 points—making her Upstate New York district even stronger Republican territory.
That’s because Democrats are overperforming Trump’s margin in special elections by an average of about 13 points, according to The Downballot. Some Democratic overperformances have been especially strong, including the 25-point overperformance they notched in former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat in Georgia.
In other words, Gonzales’ former seat is likely way too close for comfort for Republicans.
[…]
Already, local leaders in Gonzales’ district are growing worried they will be without congressional representation until after the midterm elections, with John Ferguson, mayor of Presidio, Texas, telling a local television station that Abbott’s silence on his plans for the special election is politically motivated.
“I understand why they would maybe not say much on it, but my goodness, we’re Texans, and sometimes you just have to stand up and do what is right,” Ferguson told NewsWest 9. “So, that’s what I’m waiting for.”
Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time Abbott played politics with special elections. He kept Texas’ 18th District—a safely Democratic seat—vacant for over 330 days after Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner died. Leaving Turner’s seat vacant for nearly a year gave Republicans’ slim House majority more breathing room.
Ultimately, if Abbott doesn’t hold a special election until November for Gonzales’ seat, it will be yet another sign Republicans know they are screwed in the midterms.
See here for some previous discussion on this topic. I got a comment on that post suggesting that while the May 2 uniform election date is as I said too soon to be legal as a possibility, perhaps Abbott could set it for the May 26 primary runoff date. I feel like that’s not a legal option, but I scanned through the election code again and couldn’t find something to clarify one way or the other. For what it’s worth, the special election in 2018 for CD27, which Abbott did set early because it was a reliably red seat, occurred on June 30 of that year; the primary runoffs were on May 22.
Whatever Abbott decides, and he has to set a date sooner or later, he’s not going to share his reasoning with us. He’ll announce the date and then go back to scrolling Twitter. But he always does what he thinks is best for himself and for the Republican Party, so we’ll know by his decision what he was thinking.
Unless a couple of GOP congress members die unexpectedly or resign suddenly, my expectation is that Gov. Abbott will set the special election on the same day as the November general election to avoid the risk of a defeat in a low turnout special election, and the momentum and psychological boost that would give to the Democrat candidate. The recent unexpected death of a Democrat congress member from Georgia gives the GOP House leadership a bit of breathing room, although the unexplained illness of a GOP member from New Jersey complicates things, and points out how fragile the GOP majority is.