From Somos Votantes:
Today, Somos Votantes released new polling data showing Latino voters in key states and districts are rejecting President Trump and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, driven by mounting economic pain, widespread disapproval of Republican’s tariff and healthcare policies, and intense alarm over the costs of Trump’s war with Iran. This marks the fifth consecutive installment of Somos Votantes’ quarterly tracking series — and the first to focus exclusively on the key states where control of Congress and governorships will be decided: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin.
The findings reveal a Latino electorate that is not only deeply pessimistic about the direction of the country under Republican leadership — but increasingly disapproving of Republicans. Yet the data also makes clear that Democrats have not secured a victory in November: real vulnerabilities on government waste, crime and fiscal credibility mean Latino voters are demanding their support to be earned.
Key findings of the poll:
- Partisan dynamics are currently showing Latino voters in key states lean heavily Democratic and are breaking decisively toward Democratic candidates. Democrats hold a +15 partisan advantage in surveyed states (50% Democrat vs. 35% Republican) and a +6 advantage in surveyed districts (49% D vs. 43% R). On the generic ballot, Democrats lead by +20 in states (55% / 35%) and +12 in districts (53% / 41%).
- Trump is a significant electoral liability, with deeply negative ratings on every measure — and his worst numbers on the economy. His personal favorability is deeply negative (net -24 in states; net -18 in districts), his job approval is worse (net -26 states; net -21 districts), and his handling of the economy is his single worst rating (net -30 states; net -24 districts).
- Republicans in Congress are deeply underwater, Democrats hold an advantage but face uneven standing of their own. Republican congressional favorability is deeply negative in both states (net -23) and districts (net -20). Democrats in Congress receive mixed reviews — slightly negative in states (net -3: 45% favorable / 48% unfavorable) and narrowly positive in districts (net +2) — outperforming Republicans but not earning voter confidence entirely.
- The cost of living, across all measures, is a dominant and intensifying concern. Roughly two-thirds of Latino likely voters say the cost of living has gone up “a lot” over the past year (64% states / 63% districts), with more than eight-in-ten reporting costs have risen overall in program states and three-quarters saying the same in program districts. The sharpest concerns center on grocery prices (62% extremely concerned in states / 57% in districts) and rising healthcare and prescription drug costs (59% states / 58% districts).
- Latino voters overwhelmingly blame politicians more than corporations for price-gouging — arguing they are not doing enough to hold corporations accountable by a 3-to-1 margin (73% states / 74% districts). When the parties are compared directly, a strong majority (2-to-1 margin) blame Republican economic policies — including tariffs, overseas military spending, and cuts to health and food programs — for rising costs (64% states / 63% districts), compared to just over a third who blame Democratic economic policies (36% states / 37% districts).
- Trump’s Iran war has emerged as a top Republican vulnerability, driving the highest levels of Latino voter concern in the poll. The top five most alarming statements tested all involve Republican actions tied to Trump — led by concerns that Trump’s war with Iran is pushing inflation higher (65% very concerning in states / 62% in districts), that it has driven gas prices up (64% states / 63% districts), and that it is costing American taxpayers in military spending (63% states / 63% districts). Trump tariffs and Medicaid cuts also rank among the top concerns.
- Democrats face real and significant vulnerabilities. While Latino voters broadly trust Democrats more on healthcare and jobs, Democrats trail on crime and safety (36% trust Democrats vs. 38% Republicans in states), and a perceived failure to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending ranks as a top concern — directly undercutting one of the qualities voters most want to see in candidates. Roughly half of Latino voters also express concern that Democrats prioritize issues disconnected from families’ economic reality.
- Candidates who promise to cut waste in government spending while protecting core programs and creating good jobs hold a decisive advantage. Latino voters are overwhelmingly more likely to support candidates who cut waste while safeguarding Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (88% more likely in states / 91% in districts) and who create good-paying jobs (88% states / 92% districts).
- Democrats hold advantages on healthcare, jobs, and tariffs — but the margin is competitive. Latino voters trust Democrats more on healthcare (47% vs. 26% in states; 52% vs. 32% in districts) and jobs and the economy (44% vs. 33% in states; 45% vs. 38% in districts). However, roughly one-third of voters still trust Republicans more on economic issues, and up to one-fifth trust neither party.
The polling memo doesn’t add much to the press release, but there must be more data out there. I say that because I found this via the Current, which had some horserace numbers.
Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by 19 points among Latino voters, while Democrat James Talarico is ahead of incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by 24 points with that demographic, according to polling conducted for Somos Votantes by predominantly Democratic public affairs firm Global Strategy Group.
[…]
In Texas’ 15th District, Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Monica de La Cruz by just two points. The 28th District is even tighter, with Democrat U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar holding a single-point edge over Republican Tano Tijerina, 40% to 39%. In the latter race, 21% of voters remain undecided.
Republicans currently hold an advantage in the state’s redrawn 35th District, where Carlos De La Cruz is ahead, 54% to 39%.
I saw a fundraising email from the Gina Hinojosa campaign on Friday that touted this finding, in which she was up 58-39 on Abbott among Latinos. That’s better than a lot of alternatives, but it would have been seen as not terribly impressive not that long ago. Talarico’s margin is closer to Biden 2020 numbers. The biggest eye-opener is in CD15, where even a small lead by Bobby Pulido is a huge swing from 2024 and 2022. Still not back to “Beto in 2018” territory, but there’s some room to get closer. And we’ll need them to for CD35 to get more competitive.
There will be a lot of money spent in these races.
In the fight for control of the U.S. House this fall, Democrats are targeting two San Antonio-area districts that are considered quite red.
Texas’ 35th Congressional District was bright blue before Republicans redrew it this summer to create a GOP pickup opportunity on San Antonio’s Southeast side.
Now it’s a new seat that would have supported President Donald Trump by more than 10 percentage points under its new boundaries and neither party will know who their nominee for November is until after the May 26 primary runoffs.
Another surprising opportunity, Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, hasn’t been on Democrats’ target map since redistricting added Republican voters after the 2020 Census.
It supported Trump by nearly 15 percentage points in 2024, but U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) just resigned from the seat, and Democrats are feeling optimistic about their chances against the new Republican nominee Brandon Herrera.
The 30-year-old gun content creator’s social media posts range from entertaining to shocking, and Democrats hope they can capitalize on it in a November race against child welfare attorney Katy Padilla Stout.
“Brandon Herrera’s nomination is a gift to Democrats and a full-blown crisis for Republican leadership,” said Katarina Flicker, a spokeswoman for the pro-Democrat House Majority PAC. “His candidacy puts TX-23 firmly on the House battlefield.”
[…]
The pro-Democrat PAC currently has 48 congressional targets nationwide, including districts in Alaska, Montana, Florida and Tennessee that Trump carried by more than 10 percentage points.
They’re also on offense in Texas’ 15th Congressional District, where incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg) is up against Democrat Bobby Pulido, the famous Tejano signer. De La Cruz’s district supported Trump by nearly 18 percentage points under its new boundaries.
This week the House Majority PAC laid down a total of $272 million in television and digital advertising reservations for the fall.
About $6.1 million of that is in San Antonio for TX23 and TX35, where the group’s leaders believe they can capitalize on Hispanic voters leaving the GOP.
I’m happy to see all this, if a bit surprised that some of it is aimed at CD35. I stress the “happy” of it, since I’ve been on the “CDs 09 and 35 are winnable” bandwagon from the beginning, but I wonder if it’s contingent on Johnny Garcia winning the runoff. He’s doing modestly well in fundraising, and he’s far outpacing Maureen Galindo there. I consider myself neutral in that race, but Galindo needs to make a financial case for herself if she doesn’t want to be totally left to her own devices. We’ll see.
Two other things, neither of which are specific to any campaigns but which I wanted to make note of. One is whether anyone who supported Trump’s “draw me five new districts” demand now feels regret over how things have turned out.
Texas made sense as the first state to move, because it had famously done power-grab mid-decade redistricting before, in 2003, at the behest of Sugar Land Republican Tom DeLay. That redistricting was deeply shocking to many Americans at the time for its cynicism, and it led Texas Democrats in both the House and Senate to leave the state for a while to try to block it. When Dems returned to the Capitol and the new map passed, the whole thing succeeded in weakening the Democratic Party in Texas, but when it came to affecting the balance of power in the U.S. House, the move was mostly futile. Between 2004 and the end of the decade, the new Texas districts never made the difference in the control of Congress.
This round of mid-decade redistricting, which Texas House Democrats also left the state in response to, appears to be something worse than futile: It is shaping up to have been a top-to-bottom omnishambles for the GOP. Texas did set off a redistricting wave, as intended: Six other states have now redrawn their maps. But the nationwide struggle Texas incited, it turns out, was one that Democrats were much more eager to contest than Republicans.
“Omnishambles” is a great word. I am aware of the legal tussle now going on in Virginia, which has the potential to complicate all this. But whatever the Republicans of 2025 thought would happen once Texas did Trump’s bidding, I doubt it looked anything like this.
Revelers at Night In Old San Antonio (NIOSA), one of Fiesta’s best-attended events, got a surprise Thursday night when State Rep. James Talarico, Texas’ Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, showed up unexpectedly.
Talarico has been on something of a campaign hiatus since winning the Democratic nomination against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett this spring. His team has been awaiting the results of the May 26 Republican runoff to find out whether he’ll take on U.S. Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton in November’s general election.
After an exhausting primary, Talarico — who represents an Austin district but once taught school in San Antonio — said there are few better ways to spend downtime than enjoying Fiesta.
“I’ve always been partial to the Battle of the Flowers Parade, but I’m so excited to be here tonight and looking forward to trying some of the food and meeting a lot of the folks that are here,” he said.
Indeed, some NIOSA-goers were left gobsmacked to see Talarico wandering around La Villita, his shirt heavy with Fiesta medals from vendors. He shook hands and mingled with attendees, occasionally posing for photos.
“I think it’s incredibly cool,” NIOSA attendee Amanda Rothbauer said. “I think it shows that he’s relating to Texans on a Texan level. It feels like he’s here to have a good time.”
And a good time he had.
Although the former Rhodes Middle School teacher didn’t get a chance to grab chicken-on-a-stick — his favorite Fiesta food — he did scarf down some beef tacos from a vendor and a piña agua fresca.
“I didn’t know he loved beef tacos,” said the vendor, who didn’t give his name. “But hey, that’s a man of the people.”
Nice. I cannot under any circumstances imagine Ken Paxton doing this, let alone getting the warm welcome Talarico got. I could picture John Cornyn doing it sometime in the pre-Trump era – he is, alas, a Trinity grad and got his start as a district court judge in Bexar County, so at the very least he’d be on familiar ground at NIOSA – but not now, mostly because of Trump poisoning. Ted Cruz would try to do this. It would be an utter debacle because he’s such a stiff, and in the end the Alamo would get sacked, because the curse of Ted Cruz remains undefeated.
San Antonio knows to keep Cruz out while the Spurs are in the playoffs. I’m not saying Cruz went to the Rockets v Lakers Game 3 in the 4th quarter, but I would submit there was evidence he might have . . .