Rep. James Talarico
A new Texas Southern University survey suggests the race for U.S. Senate in Texas could be far tighter than many voters may expect heading into the November election.
Early voting for the Texas primary runoff elections is already underway, and the latest numbers show several key races could be highly competitive.
According to the TSU survey, Democrat James Talarico currently holds the highest favorability rating among the three major Senate candidates who could appear on the November ballot. Talarico is viewed favorably by 46% of likely Texas voters and unfavorably by 35%.
According to the TSU survey, Democrat James Talarico currently holds the highest favorability rating among the three major Senate candidates who could appear on the November ballot. Talarico is viewed favorably by 46% of likely Texas voters and unfavorably by 35%.
The survey found incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn would narrowly lead Talarico in a hypothetical November matchup, with 45% of likely voters supporting Cornyn compared to 44% for Talarico. Another 8% said they remain undecided.
But the race appears even tighter if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. In that scenario, the survey found Paxton and Talarico tied at 45% each among likely voters.
“Under the second scenario, Paxton and Talarico are in a literal tie, each with a vote intention of 45%,” the report states.
The TSU Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center conducted the survey between April 22 and May 6, 2026, among likely Texas voters. Researchers said the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.80 percentage points.
Kind of wild to say this out loud, but this is actually a little bit disappointing, considering all of the recent poll results that have had Talarico in the lead. Still solid, and still showing little to no difference between Cornyn and Paxton as candidates. On that score, The Texan has some more details.
When Cornyn voters were asked if they would vote for Paxton should he be the GOP nominee after the runoff, 90 percent said that they would, while 2 percent said they would cast a vote for Talarico instead. Another 2 percent said they would vote for Brown, while 6 percent remained undecided.
When Paxton voters were similarly questioned on whether they would vote for Cornyn should he secure the Republican nomination, 91 percent said they would cast their ballot in favor of the incumbent senator. None would vote for Talarico, while 3 percent said they would vote for Brown, and 6 percent were also undecided.
Good to get a data point on that. I remain very interested to see how, or if, the polls change after the runoff. I’d like to show you more data but I can’t find it anywhere. The Barbara Jordan Institute homepage doesn’t point me towards any recent polls. So this is what we have.
Allegedly TACO Trumpy is really, absolutely, positively going to endorse someone today.
Hmm, it’s Tuesday too. Coincidence?
Well orange piggy actually did it! Paxton gets the prize. That’s probably it for Cornyn. Can he and Cassidy find their lost manhood before they exit?
They are singing it like Tony Bennett, ‘I left my balls … at Mar-a-Lago’ …
There will be a vote on that ridiculous ballroom boondoggle coming up before the general election. Who has even a sub-atomic particle’s worth of self-respect?
There will be a vote on that ridiculous ballroom boondoggle before the general election. Who’s got even a sub-atomic particle’s worth of self-respect here?