I’m basically going to rerun my post from the start of early voting, because it’s the same information with the main difference being that there are more vote centers. Turnout during early voting was pretty good in context, with more on the Republican side for all the obvious reasons. The pattern of late seems to be about two-thirds of votes being cast before Election Day, which as noted should put the Dems at just over 100K for Harris County and the Republicans up close to 150K. Obviously, there are some wide error bars around both of those.
For those of you with some morbid curiosity about how things are going on the GOP side post-Trump endorsement, the DMN reads some tea leaves.
Now that the bulk of the early runoff votes are in, the statewide patterns reveal a mixed political picture.
For example, some of Cornyn’s best metro strongholds held up comparatively well even as smaller conservative areas backing Paxton posted higher turnout rates. Among the notable dynamics identified by The Dallas Morning News:
- In Dallas County, where Cornyn beat Paxton by 18 percentage points in March, 45,974 Republicans voted early in the runoff compared with 64,948 in the March primary, a retention rate of roughly 70%.
- Travis County, where Cornyn routed Paxton by 24 percentage points, kept nearly 80% of its GOP early vote from the primary.
- Tarrant County, another top-performing Cornyn area, held onto about 67% of its early primary vote, despite the steep statewide dropoff in runoff participation.
- Harris County, where Cornyn edged Paxton by a single percentage point, retained 76% of its vote from the first round.
Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser for the Cornyn campaign, said he expects a close race and that Paxton’s campaign is hoping for a smaller runoff electorate.
“Unlike Ken Paxton, we want high turnout,” Mackowiak said. “We are working to turn out as many Republicans as possible.”
Nick Maddux, a spokesman for Paxton’s campaign, declined to comment.
Some Paxton-friendly suburban and exurban counties are seeing sharper declines from March, including:
- Collin County, which Paxton narrowly carried in the primary, retained less than 60% of its March early vote.
- Montgomery County, one of Paxton’s strongest counties in March, was at about the same level. Paxton beat Cornyn there by 27 percentage points in March.
- Galveston County, which Paxton won by 6 percentage points, maintained nearly 68% of its GOP early vote from the primary.
At the same time, those counties are posting higher overall turnout rates in the runoff than some of Cornyn’s biggest metro areas, a trend that could benefit Paxton if it continues through Election Day.
Republican turnout among registered voters in Collin, Montgomery and Galveston counties was around 6% by the end of early voting, with Montgomery topping 6.4%. Dallas and Travis counties, two of Cornyn’s best March counties, were closer to 3%.
Cornyn showed somewhat stronger numbers in Tarrant and Denton counties, where GOP turnout among registered voters was running closer to 5% and 6%, respectively.
Make of all that what you will. My belief is that this was a tossup race pre-endorsement, and it’s Paxton’s to lose now.
Here are all the Chronicle endorsements for the runoffs. Chron endorsed candidates include Christian Menefee (CD18), Vikki Goodwin (Lite Guv), Nathan Johnson (Attorney General), Staci Childs (HD131), Darlene Breaux (HD149), William Demond (14th Court of Appeals, Place 7), Brian Warren (209th Criminal District Court), Annise Parker (Harris County Judge), Darrell Jordan (Harris County District Clerk), and Melanie Miles (Justice of the Peace, Precinct 7, Place 2).
If you want to know about which groups endorsed which candidates as well as other information about them, the Erik Manning spreadsheet is your best single resource for the Democratic races.
My interviews and judicial Q&As for some of these races:
Rep. Christian Menefee – CD18
Rep. Al Green – CD18
Rep. Vikki Goodwin – Lt Governor
Marcos Vélez – Lt Governor
Staci Childs – HD131
Lawrence Allen – HD131
Annise Parker – Harris County Judge
Letitia Plummer – Harris County Judge
Darrell Jordan – Harris County District Clerk
Alex Maldonado – Harris County District Clerk
Michael Adams-Hurta, Justice, Fourteenth Court of Appeals, Place 7
Judge Brian Warren, 209th Criminal District Court
And finally, a reminder to anyone reading this who lives in the new CD35, vote for Johnny Garcia and not Maureen Galindo. It’s important.
Happy voting! I’ll have the results tomorrow. You have from 7 AM to 7 PM today to vote, so get out there if you haven’t already and make it happen.
UPDATE: Here’s the press release from the Harris County Clerk’s office.