Good.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, officials said Thursday, citing the expected El Niño weather pattern which tends to suppress hurricane formation.
The agency forecasts eight to 14 named storms, with up to three potentially becoming Category 3 or higher hurricanes — which have wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour.
Hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Last year was particularly quiet in the Gulf of Mexico — no named tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall in Texas. In 2024, Texas was struck by Tropical Storm Alberto and Hurricane Beryl — a Category 1 that left millions of Texans without electricity for days.
NOAA defines an average season as one with 14 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The agency’s forecast predicts the formation of storms, not whether they will make landfall.
“Even though we’re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs. “We have had category fives make landfall in the past during below average seasons.”
The agency’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said one of the lessons from last year’s above-normal season was continuing their messaging on early preparedness.
“Don’t let words like below-average change the way you’re prepared,” Graham said.
The last time forecasters predicted a below-normal season was 2015, according to Matthew Rosencrans, NWS lead hurricane season forecaster. That year, no hurricanes made landfall and just two named tropical storms did, including Tropical Storm Bill that hit Texas in June.
NOAA has a 70% confidence level in these predictions and warns that the most active stretch will occur from mid‑August through late September.
See here for the Colorado State forecast, which was similar. Last year was definitely preferable to 2024, and the more that this year will be like last year, the better. But as Director Graham says, it just takes one. And storms have been intensifying more quickly these days. So be prepared.