This is the first post-runoff poll from an outfit that had also polled before the GOP Senate candidate was known.
Rep. James Talarico
Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are neck and neck in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll released Tuesday by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
Paxton led Talarico 43% to 42%, with a 3.5-point margin of error, the survey found, largely aligning with other recent polls, which have reported a competitive race since the general election nominees were solidified last month. The result puts Paxton on a promising trajectory, coming after he trailed Talarico by 8 percentage points in the same pollster’s April survey.
The latest poll queried 1,200 self-reported registered voters from June 5 to 12, around three weeks after the race was set when Paxton, the hardline conservative attorney general, bested U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff election.
According to the poll, the vast majority of Republican voters — 84% — indicated they had moved on from the bitter GOP primary and would support Paxton, a 21-percentage-point shift from the Texas Politics Project’s April poll. Paxton’s 43% support is a 9-point improvement from his 34% showing in April, while Talarico remained stagnant at 42% in both surveys.
In the most recent poll, 5% of Republicans said they would back Talarico, who also had commanding leads among independents and moderates. More than a third of independents said they did not have an opinion about the race so far.
Appealing to Cornyn supporters — traditional Republicans offended by Paxton’s history of scandal — and voters across the political spectrum has formed a central tenet of Talarico’s general election strategy. Paxton’s task will be to minimize potential GOP defections and ensure Republicans turn out without President Donald Trump on the ballot.
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Meanwhile, Republicans held larger leads in the other statewide races on the ballot, the poll found.
Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, 47% to 40%, in the gubernatorial race, while Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was beating Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, 43% to 36%.
The Democrats in the attorney general and comptroller races also hovered in the mid-30s. Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton had a 5-point lead over Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson in the race to succeed Paxton as attorney general, and Don Huffines, a GOP former state senator, led state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt, D-Austin, by 6 points in the comptroller contest.
See here for the previous UT/TPP poll. That was a bit of an outlier, in that it was both Talarico’s biggest lead in any poll and also the lowest percentage for Paxton (and Cornyn). I think what we’re seeing here is some post-runoff effect, in which at least some of the Paxton/Cornyn splintering has resolved itself, and a bit of a more normal Republican showing overall.
You can see the poll data here. Of interest to me is the approval rating for Donald Trump, which sits at 43-51, his second-worst showing overall and his low score since 42-51 last October. Way down at the bottom are the other approval ratings of interest:
- Gov. Greg Abbott: 44% approve, 44% disapprove (April: 46% / 43%)
- Lt. Gov Dan Patrick: 33% approve, 42% disapprove (April: 35% / 38%)
- Attorney General Ken Paxton: 34% approve, 47% disapprove (April: 34% / 42%)
- Senator Ted Cruz: 39% approve, 49% disapprove. (April: 40% / 46%)
- Senator John Cornyn: 23% approve, 51% disapprove (April: 29% / 45%)
- U.S. Congress: 24% approve, 59% disapprove (April: 23% / 57%)
I continue to believe there’s more room for Trump to decline in the state. Other approval trackers have placed him down around 40% in Texas; I believe those are extrapolated from national data and not based on individual polls, so make of them what you will. Bottom line is that Trump is a drag on the rest of the ticket, and it’s not going to improve for them.