Wow.
Rep. James Talarico
President Donald Trump won the Lone Star state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests this year’s Senate race is far less settled. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has yet to fully unify the GOP despite the president’s endorsement in the GOP primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
In addition, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6).
Those dynamics give Talarico a 3-point edge over Paxton (51% vs. 48%) in the Senate contest (within the survey’s margin of sampling error).
Talarico’s advantage in the race grows to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters (53% vs. 47% in each group).
Most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).
In part, that’s because one quarter of non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico (24%).
[…]
By a 12-point margin, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve as a senator than believe Talarico is too extreme (59% vs. 47%).
Twice as many Republicans are concerned about Paxton’s character as Democrats are that Talarico is too extreme (36% vs. 17%).
Still, about 8 in 10 Paxton and Talarico supporters say their backing is more about where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people.
Trump received a 55% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable rating in the 2024 Texas Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. Today, those numbers have flipped: 45% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable, for a minus-9 net negative rating.
Paxton garners a minus-6 net personal rating, 45% favorable vs. 51% unfavorable, while Talarico is in positive territory by 6 points, 49% vs. 43%.
Talarico is more popular than the Democratic Party while the GOP edges out Paxton.
While both parties are viewed negatively, the GOP is underwater by only 2 points (48% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable), compared with the Democratic Party at minus-9 (45% vs. 54%).
[…]
In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored by 1 point over Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Part of Abbott’s edge comes from a touch more crossover support: 12% of Talarico supporters back Abbott, while 9% of Paxton supporters back Hinojosa.
Hinojosa has the advantage among extremely motivated (+6) and extremely interested voters (+5).
Abbott has a net positive personal rating by a single point (50% favorable vs. 49% unfavorable). Hinojosa is in positive territory by 11 points (45% vs. 34%), although nearly 1 in 5 are unable to rate her.
That’s two strong poll results in a row, following the TPOR poll. It’s also Talarico’s high score in any poll so far. You can see the toplines here and the crosstabs here. Fox News has a giant pile of sins to atone for, but its polling is generally well-regarded, so while I always look funny a poll results that have little to no “don’t know” or “other” answers, this is a reputable result. Talarico takes 10% of GOP voters, wins indies by a 68-29 landslide, is competitive with white voters (42-57), gets fairly normal numbers from Black (87-13) and Latino (59-41) voters. Gina Hinojosa does almost as well across the board (9% of GOP voters, 61-34 for indies, 85-14 for Black voters, 58-42 for Latino voters), and this is the best result she has seen so far. All the usual caveats apply, we’re just adding this to the pile. The Chron has more.