Paxton’s best result in awhile.
Rep. James Talarico
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of Texas likely voters finds the U.S. Senate race in a dead heat: 47% support Republican Ken Paxton, while 46% support Democrat James Talarico. Five percent are undecided, and 2% support someone else.
“The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
In the race for Governor, 49% support Republican Greg Abbott, while 45% support Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Four percent are undecided.
Governor Abbott holds a 46% job approval rating, while 49% disapprove of the Governor. President Donald Trump holds a 47% job approval rating, while 48% disapprove of the President.
“Majorities of Texas Hispanic voters are dissatisfied with their federal and state executives: 58% of Hispanic voters disapprove of President Trump and 57% of Governor Abbott,” Kimball noted. “This demographic also breaks for the Democrat on the ballot, by 19 for Talarico and 17 for Hinojosa.”
Similar to his job approval, Governor Abbott’s favorable rating is at 48%, while 46% have an unfavorable view of the Governor. Talarico has a 44% favorable rating, and 41% unfavorable. Opinion on Paxton is split: 43% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Hinojosa has a 40% favorable rating and 27% unfavorable, while 33% of Texas voters are neutral or have not heard of her.
Forty-three percent think Texas is on the right track, while 48% think the state is headed in the wrong direction.
As noted before, this breaks a streak of six straight polls in which Talarico was leading. Trailing by one is hardly catastrophic in that context. Nice to see Gina Hinojosa still that close to Abbott despite that. The poll’s toplines and crosstabs are here, the main thing I’ll note is that this is a better approval rating for Donald Trump than we’ve seen recently. It’s a data point, we add it to the pile.