From the inbox:
Bobby Pulido
A new poll by Texas Southern University shows Tejano music star and TX-15 congressional candidate Bobby Pulido leading incumbent Monica De La Cruz 50% to 45% in a district Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024. It is the third consecutive public poll showing Pulido ahead, with previous polls showing him up 51% to 45% and 48% to 46% respectively.
Not only is Pulido dominating the polls, but nonpartisan race raters The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections have all shifted their ratings for TX-15 towards Pulido. Cook noted that Pulido is “better known than the congresswoman” in the Rio Grande Valley and that “under normal circumstances, a district that Trump carried by 18 points should not be competitive” but that Bobby Pulido has made it exactly that.
“South Texas is home to the hardest-working people in this country, and they deserve a representative who will work just as hard for them,” said TX-15 candidate Bobby Pulido. “Instead, Monica De La Cruz has spent her time in Congress putting her party ahead of the people she was elected to serve, taking votes to gut our healthcare, raise our grocery and gas bills, and make life harder here for South Texas families. Monica De La Cruz has had her chance, and she’s made her choice clear – party first, South Texas last. I’m running to put South Texas first and make sure our communities finally have a voice in Washington.”
Here’s the poll info. What’s of note here is that this isn’t just about CD15:
In the November 2026 TX-15 election, Democrat Bobby Pulido (50%) leads Republican Monica De La Cruz (45%) by 5 percentage points, with 5% of likely voters undecided.
41% and 43% of TX-15 likely voters have favorable and unfavorable opinions of De La Cruz, respectively, with 16% not knowing enough about her to have an opinion.
45% and 34% of TX-15 likely voters have favorable and unfavorable opinions of Pulido, respectively, with 21% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
In the November 2026 TX-28 election, Democrat Henry Cuellar (45%) leads Republican Tano Tijerina (34%) by 11 percentage points, with 6% of likely voters supporting the Green Party’s Marlón Durán and 15% undecided.
41% and 41% of TX-28 likely voters have favorable and unfavorable opinions of Cuellar, respectively, with 18% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
29% and 31% of TX-28 likely voters have favorable and unfavorable opinions of Tijerina, respectively, with 40% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
In the November 2026 TX-34 election, Democrat Vicente Gonzalez (45%) leads Republican Eric Flores (42%) by 3 percentage points, with 3% of likely voters supporting the Green Party’s Eddie Espinoza, 2% backing Libertarian Chris Royal, and 8% undecided.
35% and 36% of TX-34 likely voters have favorable and unfavorable opinions of Gonzalez, respectively, with 29% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
33% and 35% of TX-34 likely voters have favorable and unfavorable opinions of Flores, respectively, with 32% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
In TX-15, 8% of Republicans and 8% of 2024 Trump voters intend to vote for Pulido (D).
In TX-28, 20% of Republicans and 23% of 2024 Trump voters intend to vote for Cuellar (D).
In TX-34, 5% of Republicans and 2% of 2024 Trump voters intend to vote for Gonzalez (D).
President Donald Trump is underwater in all three districts, with 54%, 55% and 56% of likely voters disapproving and 40%, 36% and 40% approving of Trump’s handling of his job as president in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34, respectively.
Among TX-15 likely voters, James Talarico (D) leads Republican Ken Paxton by 8 percentage points (50% to 42%), with 2% supporting Ted Brown (L) and 6% undecided.
Among TX-28 likely voters, James Talarico (D) leads Republican Ken Paxton by 10 percentage points (51% to 41%), with 2% supporting Ted Brown (L) and 6% undecided.
Among TX-34 likely voters, James Talarico (D) leads Republican Ken Paxton by 11 percentage points (53% to 42%), with 2% supporting Ted Brown (L) and 3% undecided.
Among TX-15 likely voters, Gina Hinojosa (D) leads Republican Greg Abbott by 3 percentagepoints (47% to 44%), with 2% supporting Pat Dixon (L) and 7% undecided.
Among TX-28 likely voters, Gina Hinojosa (D) leads Republican Greg Abbott by 4 percentage points (48% to 44%), with 2% supporting Pat Dixon (L) and 6% undecided.
Among TX-34 likely voters, Gina Hinojosa (D) leads Republican Greg Abbott by 4 percentage points (49% to 45%), with 2% supporting Pat Dixon (L) and 4% undecided.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) defeated Kamala Harris (D) by 18, 10 and 10 percentage points in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34, respectively.
In the 2024 U.S. Senate election, Ted Cruz (R) defeated Colin Allred (D) by 9, 0.1 and 1 percentage points in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34, respectively.
In the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election, Greg Abbott (R) defeated Beto O’Rourke (D) by 6 and 1 percentage points in TX-15 and TX-34, respectively, while O’Rourke won by 10 points in TX-28.
Those are all very encouraging numbers. Putting CD15 in play in addition to holding CDs 28 and 34 would really be a blow to the Republicans’ five-seat-pickup fantasies. That said, this is one poll, one data point, and I agree with Lone Star Left that it would be very nice to see some corroboration from another pollster. But still, I’d rather have one poll with good numbers than not. The Current has more.