From the AARP:
Today, AARP released new polling highlighting the outsized role Texas’s highly motivated older voters are poised to play in the state’s closely watched gubernatorial and Senate races in November — and the issues that will be top of mind for these pivotal voters at the ballot box, including Social Security, Medicare, and affordability.
“Texas’s upcoming elections will be among the most closely watched races in the country, and all eyes should be on the state’s older voters,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer. “Voters age 50 and older are highly motivated to cast ballots, driven largely by financial concerns — from the cost of groceries, medicine and utilities to protecting Social Security. Their voices will be decisive on Election Day. Candidates who want to earn their support need to address these issues.”
Voters age 50 and older dominated both parties’ 2026 Texas primaries, accounting for nearly 55% of ballots cast in the Democratic primary and 78% of ballots cast in the Republican primary. AARP’s new polling suggests this high level of engagement is likely to continue: 84% of voters 50+ rated themselves a “10” on a 10-point motivation-to-vote scale, compared with 70% of voters under 50. Older swing voters make up almost 9% of the Texas electorate and roughly half of swing voters statewide, underscoring how influential this block will be for both tight races.
In the highly watched race for Senate, Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow 4-point (48%-44%) lead over Republican Ken Paxton, with 8% of voters undecided. Among voters age 50+, however, Paxton is up by 13 points (53%-40%). Talarico leads with 50+ swing voters by a significant margin (38%-17%).
In the governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott holds a narrow 3-point (49%-46%) edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Abbott’s lead is wider among 50+ voters, polling at 59% to Hinojosa’s 38%. Abbott also leads with 50+ swing voters by 31 points, and 50+ women by 15 points.
“This year’s Senate and gubernatorial races are both shaping up to be down to the wire, and older Texans are a crucial demographic for all candidates involved,” said Lisa A. Rodriguez, AARP Texas State Director. “Day-to-day realities like caring for an aging family member or grappling with rising grocery prices are driving their votes. They’re looking for leaders who will step in and advocate for policies that help them age with financial security, independence, and dignity.”
AARP’s polling found that affordability is the top issue for Texas voters 50+, followed by immigration and Social Security and Medicare.
[…]
AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct the survey of likely Texas voters. This is the fifth poll in AARP’s 2026 battleground polling series, following surveys of Michigan, Arizona, Ohio and Georgia. The firms interviewed 895 likely voters statewide. The survey was done between August 30-September 1, 2026. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on cell phone (40%) and landline (15%), as well as SMS-to-web (45%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Texas voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 895 statewide sample is ±3.3%.
View the full survey results at www.aarp.org/tx2026voterpoll and more information on our poll at www.aarp.org/TXpoll. Additional information about AARP’s 2026 battleground polling series is available at www.aarp.org/voterpolls2026.
Poll data can be found here. Talarico does a little better across all the demographics than Hinojosa does, and I note that Ken Paxton continues to have Republican problems, as he only leads Talarico 83-9 among GOPers, with the rest undecided. Abbott leads Hinojosa 90-7 among the reds, which is both a decent showing there by Hinojosa (she leads among Dems 94-3, with Talarico at 94-2) and a reminder that Paxton is still working on those pesky Cornyn voters. Trump has a 43-54 approval rating, while Abbott clocks in at 44-48, and Dems are more motivated to vote.
And from Univision/YouGov:
A new N+ Univision News/YouGov survey points to an unsettled, competitive political landscape in Texas heading into the 2026 midterm elections. While statewide contests for governor, U.S. Senate, and the generic congressional ballot remain dead heats, the poll’s Latino oversample reveals friction inside the coalition that helped power Donald Trump’s historic gains two years ago.
Though Hispanic voters continue to give Democratic contenders an overall edge, the deeper story is a notable wave of second thoughts: roughly one in three Latino Trump voters now expresses doubt or outright regret over their 2024 choice, driven by administration actions, cost-of-living fatigue, and growing anxieties over racial profiling.
These shifting currents are poised to decide an already razor-thin gubernatorial contest. Statewide, Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott are deadlocked at 47% each. Abbott’s challenge lies partly in a 12-point deficit among Latino voters, who back Hinojosa 54% to 42%. Yet that Hispanic advantage is held together almost entirely by Latina women, who favor Hinojosa by an 18-point margin (57% to 39%). In contrast, Latino men remain locked in a near-even split (49% Hinojosa to 47% Abbott), underscoring that even marginal shifts among Hispanic men could tip the balance statewide.
That dynamic carries over into the federal ticket. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton statewide, 48% to 43%, fueled by a wider 56% to 37% margin among Hispanic voters. Similarly, on the generic U.S. House ballot, Democrats hold a slight two-point edge statewide (48% to 46%), but expand that lead to 13 points (54% to 41%) within the Latino electorate.
Crucially, these numbers do not reflect an automatic snap-back to the historic, lopsided Democratic majorities of past decades. Republicans have preserved some foothold. Instead, the data captures a fracturing among Hispanics who crossed over to back Trump in 2024. While 64% of Latino Trump voters report feeling good about their vote and would repeat it, the remaining third shows cracks: 14% harbor some doubts, 7% report serious doubts that could alter their vote, and 12% voice outright regret. Roughly one-third of Latino Trump voters express some level of doubt, uncertainty, or regret. By comparison, statewide Trump voters show greater durability, with 73% reaffirming their vote and only 6% expressing regret.
Trump himself remains a polarizing and net-negative figure in Texas. Statewide, 42% of voters view him favorably, while 52% view him unfavorably. Among Latino voters, his standing is weaker: 38% view him favorably, while 55% view him unfavorably. That broader image problem helps explain why the doubts among some 2024 Trump voters matter heading into the midterms.
Scroll down to see the data. That’s the best result yet for Hinojosa, who has not led Abbott in any poll but has been within one point on a few of them. The generic Congressional ballot was 49-45 for Republicans in the AARP poll. I don’t expect to get back to 2010s levels of Latino Democratic voting, though that sure as hell would be nice, but given Democratic gains among white voters we probably don’t need to be at those levels. Again, I’d much rather have that than not. I found this poll via The Downballot, and the AARP poll via the Trib poll tracker, which currently has Talarico up by 3.6 points.