A new survey of Texas Hispanic likely voters, conducted for The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision, finds the Democratic candidates in the state’s Senate and gubernatorial contests leading their GOP opponents by a 2-1 margin with the key voting bloc, as President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the state has sunk to just 33% with a demographic group that swung hard in his direction in 2024.
The poll, conducted August 26 —September 3 by Democratic firm Hart Research and Republican firm OnMessage Inc, also included an oversample of Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, the centerpiece of Trump’s 2024 coalition and the home to three marquee House races (in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34). In that subsample, Democrats enjoyed a 14 point advantage over Republicans, 53% to 39%, on the generic ballot.
Hispanic voters in Texas understand the important role they play in Texas elections. Seven in ten said they think Hispanics in the state have a lot or some political influence, including 41% who said they have “real political power” in Texas. Moreover, two-thirds said they’d like candidates to conduct outreach in the Hispanic community in Spanish, and 69% said they believe candidates signal that they “want to earn my vote” when they appear on Spanish-language media.
Democrats’ strong showing among Hispanics in the Lone Star state is a significant shift from 2024, when Trump carried Hispanic voters by 10 points and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz carried them by three.
In this cycle’s Senate contest, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton among Hispanic voters by 63% to 30%, including a whopping 73% of self-described independents.
And in her race against incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who won 40% of Hispanics in 2022, Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa leads among Hispanic voters, 60% to 33%.
Much of the shift in support to Democrats is driven by a fracturing of the coalition that supported Trump in 2024.
18% of Texas Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 disapprove of the job he is doing.
- 19% of Hispanic Trump voters say they support Talarico over Paxton.
- 22% of Hispanic Trump voters do not support a Republican House candidate in a generic trial heat.
- Just 60% of Hispanic Trump voters believe the Republican Party does a better job standing up for the Hispanic community, compared to 91% of Harris voters who believe that Democrats do a better job.
Full poll data, which includes a number of questions about issues, is here. This was just a sample of Latino voters, so there’s no statewide results. We’ve seen plenty of statewide polls in which Talarico and Hinojosa have not done as well with Latino voters as they did in this poll. That doesn’t mean this one is correct, but it is a larger sample than one gets in a general poll, so do bear it in mind. The voters from this sample went for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024 by a 48.4 to 40.9 margin. Link via G. Elliott Morris.
The poll, conducted August 26 —September 3 by Democratic firm Hart Research and Republican firm OnMessage Inc,………..Just 60% of Hispanic Trump voters believe the Republican Party does a better job standing up for the Hispanic community
Just 60%??? Those 2 things blow my mind, considering ICE’s racial profiling and propensity towards unnecessary violence.