It does feel a little weird. Good weird, but still weird.
After the routing they delivered in the 2024 election, Texas Republicans were on a roll, pushing through conservative priorities, drawing redder congressional maps and excising Democrats from legislative leadership positions.
What a difference 18 months can make.
With November fast approaching, Texas Republicans are in their weakest position in a generation, facing voter revolt over data centers, transmission lines and a faltering economy tied to the party’s standardbearer, President Donald Trump. Scandal-plagued Senate nominee Ken Paxton is polling several points behind Democrat James Talarico, and once-untouchable GOP incumbents have started slinging mud at opponents who are creeping up in the polls
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Republicans have controlled the Texas House since 2002. But this year, the perennially disappointed Democrats see their best shot at breaking through the GOP’s political monopoly, as they aim to capture independents and disaffected moderate Republicans.
Certainly, they’ve said that before: every cycle, Democrats promise this will be the time they eke back into power. But this year, it’s Republicans who are warning about the threat Democrats pose as polls, fundraising and public sentiment show an unprecedented level of enthusiasm for the blue team — and anger at the red one.
“We’re in a little bit of uncharted territory here,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican consultant who led Sen. John Cornyn’s unsuccessful primary bid against Paxton. “In GOP circles in Texas, there’s a deep feeling that this could be the most competitive statewide election in a long time.”
National forecasters have begun to validate the hype: VoteHub recently shifted its prediction to reflect that Talarico is narrowly favored to win the Senate race, and the Center for Politics “crystal ball” rating has moved the race to a toss-up. The group also designated the governor’s race as “likely Republican,” a less sure rating than its previous “safe Republican.
“There’s an opening that I’ve never seen before in the decades I’ve been involved in politics in Texas,” said Wendy Davis, a former state senator who unsuccessfully ran for governor as a Democrat against Abbott in 2014. “We have to make sure we’re showing that there is an alternative that will be good for [voters], and that we’ll be fighting for the things that matter to them.”
We’ve talked plenty about the polls, and yet here we are in mid-September and Ken Paxton has basically never led in the Senate race, while Gina Hinojosa has never polled worse than the closest loss Dems have had in a Governor’s race since 1994, which by the way was Ann Richards’ eight point loss in 1994. (Chris Bell’s nine-point loss in 2006 is the runnerup; no one has finished closer than Beto’s 11-point loss in 2022 since.) Dems had a historic level of turnout in this year’s primaries, and somehow we’ve stopped talking about Sen. Taylor Rehmet’s double-digit win in that SD09 special election. We’re now being swamped with nasty negative TV ads – some of which are possibly illegal deepfakes. People are still talking about Bo French and his incredibly toxic racism, which most Republicans have studiously ignored. Rallies in red parts of the state draw big crowds. My Instagram and Threads continue to be full of people I’d never heard of before boosting the entire slate.
Does this mean we’ll win? The record over the past three decades is what it is. I plan to light some candles and cross myself with holy water every hour on the hour until polls close, to ward off evil spirits. All I’m saying is that as far as the vibes go, I’ve never seen anything like it. Even the Republicans are acting like we’re winning. This is the one time I’m inclined to take their word for it.
Republicans are also going to lose 2 to 4 incumbents in Harris County and maybe eight Statewide in the State House. And the most responsible for the backlash, DannyP,is safe.