Rep. James Talarico
President Donald Trump may not be on the ballot this year, but his presence is felt in this year’s midterm elections. In the race for U.S. Senate in Texas, James Talarico edges Republican Ken Paxton among registered voters statewide, and Democrats are +3 against the Republicans on the generic congressional ballot question. In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott are competitive.
- Talarico (50%) edges Paxton (44%) among registered voters statewide in the contest for U.S. Senate in Texas. Talarico receives majority support among independents (55%) Regardless of whom they support, 52% of voters overall think Paxton will win the Senate race.
- On the generic congressional ballot question, 49% of registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate compared with 46% who say they are more likely to support the Republican. In October of 2024 Republicans (53%) were +7 points against the Democrats (46%) on the ballot. 60% of Texas voters think the Republican running for Congress will win.
- Texas voters are more likely to say that their congressional vote is mostly a vote against President Trump (39%) than one in support of him (25%). 34% say the president is not a factor in their vote. Of those who say President Trump is not a factor, a majority approve of the president’s job performance.
- In the race for governor, 3 points separate Hinojosa (49%) and Abbott (46%) among Texas registered voters. Hinojosa receives the support of 52% of independents. However, 68% of registered voters overall think Abbott will be re-elected.
- President Trump’s job approval rating is upside down with 43% saying they approve of the job he is doing and 55% reporting they disapprove. Younger members within the Texas electorate are more likely to disapprove of the president than their older counterparts.
- 38% of Texas voters say their personal finances have gotten worse over the last year, and an additional 38% say they have stayed about the same. 23% report their financial picture has improved. Democrats (60%) are more likely than Republicans (17%) to say their family finances have gotten worse during the last 12 months.
This is the second poll to show James Talarico at fifty percent or higher, following that Fox News poll from late July. It’s also the second one to show Gina Hinojosa with a lead – although apparently that’s just being “competitive” – with the ReconMR poll from last week being the first. The full data is here, they unfortunately didn’t poll any other races. For whatever the reason, they break out race/ethnicity as “white” and “non-white”, which is not how I can recall it being done anywhere else. Regardless, and perhaps key to the favorable totals for both Democrats, Talarico trails among white voters by a 53-43 margin (he wins non-whites 60-32), while for Hinojosa it’s a 55-41 deficit among whites and a 59-35 lead among non-whites.
I’m mostly amused by the “but who do you think will actually win” questions, which have started appearing on some polls and which tend to favor the Republicans. I don’t suppose we need a psychologist to understand that. Anyway, this is now probably the second most-favorable poll the Dems have had. There’s another one coming from TPOR tomorrow, so as a wise man once said, hold onto your butts.
Do you happen to have old early-voting reports from Derek Ryan that pertain to the 2018 election? I would be very interested to look at them for comparison purposes once early voting begins this year. Thanks.
The belief thing probably has many layers. For me, when you add in the voter suppression and intimidation (the legal stuff), along with the actual voter fraud, campaign cheating, and mysterious counting outcomes (the illegal stuff), then consider that even victories at the polls will/would be followed by lawsuits and intransigence … polls are only so convincing. I will believe it when I see it, and not before.
I should also add that my previous comment doesn’t even factor the possibility that people are just lying to pollsters, or that pollsters just aren’t very good at predicting outcomes. As we know they do. And aren’t.