Kristin Mack confirms the rumor that radio talk show host Dan Patrick will be a candidate in the GOP primary to replace State Sen. Jon Lindsay in SD7. She notes the recent poll (PDF), which gives Patrick a lead in the race.
Greg has already done some analysis of this poll and what it means for the other candidates in the race. You can kind of see already what kind of campaigns everyone will be running - since there's no real ideological distinctions among them, they'll each focus on something different. Patrick will almost assuredly keep up the property-tax-cap drumbeat he's maintained for years now. Joe Nixon, who's owed bigtime by the insurance industry (the one true winner of his tort "reform" measure from 2003), will emphasize lawsuits and limits on them. City Council member Mark Ellis will press his newfound distaste for immigrants. And Peggy Hamric will talk about...well, I have no idea what Peggy Hamric will talk about. Off the top of my head, and without doing a Google search, I couldn't tell you what she's ever done. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to think that she'll do something to aim for the women's vote, however.
The key question is who makes the runoff, as I'm sure there will be one. I think Patrick has the best odds on name recognition alone, but I also think he'll have a much tougher time in a one-on-one race. Ellis seems like the longest shot, as he has the twin handicaps of being City of Houston and Jared Woodfill's whipping boy. I'd put Nixon slightly ahead of Hamric, poll numbers notwithstanding, but would not be willing to wager money on it.
Two side notes. One, as Chris Elam reports, Nixon has already taken to the airwaves, before Patrick's candicacy was confirmed. It'll be interesting to see how those two go after each other. Two, Greg notes that Ben Streusand will try his luck in SD18 against incumbent Democrat Ken Armbrister. Apparently, Streusand wants to be this decade's version of Gene Fontenot. At least those of us in Houston would be spared hearing his voice on TV and radio ads if SD18 is his target. For that, we can all be thankful.
UPDATE: For any non-Houstonians reading this, the Dan Patrick in question is not the ESPN guy, but this guy.Posted by Charles Kuffner on September 16, 2005 to Election 2006 | TrackBack