OK, I feel like it's time for something a little lighthearted. I had mentioned this before, and now here it is: the 2006 Guess The Chronicle Endorsements game. The object is to try to predict as many of the Chronicle's eventual endorsements for the 2006 election season. The winner will get a prize - I'm thinking an adult beverage of your choosing, but we can negotiate that later.
Anyway, the rules are as follows:
1. Anyone can play. Make all your guesses in the comments on this post.
2. All guesses must be made before the Chron starts endorsing. Lord only knows when that will be, but you're better off doing it sooner rather than later.
3. Your goal is to predict what the Chron will do. You're not saying who they should endorse, or who you'd endorse if it were up to you, but who they actually will endorse.
4. The offices that are in play for this contest are:
5. The scoring is as follows: For correctly guessing that an incumbent would be recommended for re-election, one point. For correctly guessing that a challenger would be recommended over an incumbent, three points. For correctly guessing an open-seat race, two points.
6. In the event of a tie, I'll come up with some hairbrained scheme to sort it out.
Got it? Go into the comments and leave your guesses. Here's mine, to get you started:
1. Senate - Hutchison. Offhand, I can't think of any Dem they'd be likely to pick over her. KBH is just Their Kind Of Candidate.
2. Statewides - All Republicans except for Chris Bell and Bill Moody. The Chron has endorsed Republicans for Governor for every year I've been in Houston (yes, they picked Clayton Williams over Ann Richards, and yes, I'm still mad about that), so I feel like I'm going out on a limb here. I just have this feeling that they're tired of Rick Perry, so I'm going against him. Before the Grandma Ballot Follies, I could've made a case for Strayhorn here, but given the idiocy of her campaign so far, I'm running with the hometown boy.
The case for Moody is essentially the one that the Morning News made for him. I think the Chron will see it the same way.
The one place where I'm not confident about my pick is Ag Commish. I'll be more than happy to be wrong about it.
(Note: Comptroller and Ag Commish are open seats.)
3. Congressionals - Lampson in CD22 (duh!), incumbents otherwise. I just don't think they have the guts to abandon John "I Hate Metro" Culberson. Again, I'll be very happy to be wrong about that.
(Note: CD22 counts as an open seat.)
4. State House - I'll start with the easy ones: All incumbents except for Diane Trautman in HD127, Sherrie Matula in HD129, and Ellen Cohen in HD134. They endorsed Dem challengers in 127 and 134 in 2004, and I don't see any reason why they'd switch back. Matula is the kind of candidate that they like, and I can see her winning them over.
The Chron endorsed Heflin over Vo in 149 last time, but that was when Heflin was the chair of the Appropriations Committee. There's no good reason for them to pick him this time.
The toughies are the two open seats, 126 and 133. I'm going to call it a split and guess Patricia Harless in 126, and Kristi Thibaut in 133. Both Democrat Thibaut and Republican Jim Murphy in 133 are the kind of candidates the Chron tends to like, so I think that one's a coin toss. Given that, I may as well root for the outcome I prefer.
5. Harris County Treasurer - Richard Garcia. Easiest pick of the bunch after Lampson. I think they'll approve of the abolish-the-office message, and will not like Orlando Sanchez's stated desire to turn the office into his personal soapbox for pet causes. I will be genuinely shocked if I'm wrong about this. This counts as an open seat.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on September 15, 2006 to Election 2006
There you have it. The floor is open, so guess away.