June 18, 2008
The state of the Noriega campaign
Texas Monthly writer John Spong spent some time with the Rick Noriega campaign around the primary, and writes a report that I've heard described as "tough love", a term Houtopia also uses. It's a pretty accurate description. It's also a tough article to quote from, since it covers a vast amount of ground, and some of the issues highlighted I know for a fact have since been addressed. So let me start by saying that I largely agree with Greg's take, that I'm cautiously optimistic about the Q2 fundraising numbers (the support of Senators Webb and Tester have been helpful and appreciated), and that when all was said and done with that article, I still came away feeling hopeful. There'd have been no point in writing it, as Spong admits up front, if none of it mattered. Read it for yourself and see what you think.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on June 18, 2008 to Election 2008
How much in donations do you think Noriega has to raise in the second quarter to be viewed as viable? Cornyn's been at $2 million a quarter for the last five quarters. Would $2.5 million for Noriega in this quarter be possible?
OBAMA makes every Dem candidate viable this election. In any other year, I would agree with the premise of unseating an incumbent there needs to be a near flawless campaign with robust funding coming in, but there are some serious political coattails (love that term) that can and will be ridden this Fall due to OBAMA-MANIA that has a hold on many people - bank on it. Hopefully Mr. Noriega is the benefactor of that.
Buck - I don't want to go setting expectations, since I do not speak for the campaign. I personally think he needs to be in seven figures for the quarter. He won't approach Cornyn's money, but he does ultimately need to have a decent fraction of it.
And yes, as even Baselice readily admits, Obama is a big X-factor. Everybody has their guesses, but nobody really knows how his presence atop the ticket will affect downballot races.
** Buck - I don't want to go setting expectations, since I do not speak for the campaign. **
Especially after your *ahem* expectation-setting with regard to the Radnofsky campaign. :)
Brave snickering(*) from the guy who brought you this gem:
The Democratic party hoped to nationalize the election with a "culture of corruption" meme, but that meme has utterly failed to take hold as corruption scandals have hit members of both parties.
I guess it's not all bad, though. We've still got this bit of expectation setting on your part to evaluate in November:
... if Dems do manage a takeover in the House, it strikes me they're going to have a tough time holding on to some of those seats in two years (think CD-22), especially given what is likely to be a McCain electoral landslide.
* - Brave due to the fact that Kevin links to his own previous bout of misogynistic talking points. Traffic must be on the downswing if he's that desperate to link himself ... I may as well lend a hand ;-)