Rasmussen September Texas polls

Rasmussen has finally given us some September poll numbers for Texas, and they're not too shabby. First, for the Senate race.

Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn now leads challenger Rick Noriega just 50% to 43% in Texas, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Cornyn had an 11-point lead over Noriega in August. He had been out front by double digits in every poll conducted since May, when he had just a four-point lead over the challenger. Cornyn is currently seeking his second term in the Senate.

This month, Cornyn has a 50% to 33% lead among unaffiliated voters in Texas. He leads 51% to 43% among men and 49% to 43% among women.

That's close enough that the race might get some attention from the national folks, as the Democratic goal of 60 seats in the Senate is much more realistic these days than before. And Noriega may get a boost among unaffiliated voters thanks to an endorsement from Independent Texans. I've put their press release beneath the fold.

On the Presidential side, the spread is a little wider.

Still no change in the Texas presidential race, as John McCain continues to lead Barack Obama by nine percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain ahead 52% to 43%.

The latest numbers mark the fourth straight month the Republican has held a nine-point lead in the Lone Star State. The closest match-up between the nominees was back in May, when Obama trailed by just six points.

Two points: One, as we've discussed many times, the key mark for Obama is 42 to 44%, which is the "consolidate their gains" number for Dems in the Lege. And two, as I suggested before, there wasn't much room for McCain to grow his support in Texas even after his base-exciting pick of Sarah Palin for VP, because he already had the overwhelming backing of Republicans plus a solid lead among the unaffiliated. This poll is evidence of that. BOR and Kos have more.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 01, 2008 to Election 2008