October 23, 2008
Chron overview of CD22

The Chron has a pretty good overview of the CD22 race, one of three high-profile Harris County-area Congressional races; they had an overview of the CD10 race yesterday, and proimise a CD07 overview tomorrow. I just want to highlight one bit from this story, because in some ways it is the story:

Now that Lampson has on-the-ballot Republican opposition for the first time here, along with a challenge from Libertarian John Wieder, the national Republican Party badly wants the seat back, seeing few other chances around the country to expand its ranks in the House this year.

How badly do the Republicans want this seat back? Consider this:

A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under "Rating 2," nine Republican seats are listed as "leaning Democratic." Under "Rating 3," some 22 GOP seats are listed as "true toss-up." The fourth rating, "lean Republican," finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: "If there's a wave, some could be in trouble." The last "likely Republican" rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as "hopeful" GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as "possible" pickups. The loss of 34 House GOP seats is among the most dire predictions in Republican circles. Most analysts have suggested a drop of at least 20 seats and at most 30 seats.

Losing 30+ seats is bad enough. Losing them while still not being able to win back the one you really really want is worse. This one would hurt for the GOP if they lost it.

Anyway. For more on the CD22 race, check out Julie's report from the recent candidate forum. You can also listen to my interview with Rep. Lampson.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 23, 2008 to Election 2008
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