October 28, 2008
Early voting: A little slower, but still strong

I didn't think the double-the-rate-of-2004 pace for early voting could be maintained all the way through to the end, and the Monday results bear that out, as "only" 62,509 voters showed up at the polls yesterday. That's a slight drop from Saturday's high, and a 48.8% gain over 2004 instead of a 100%+ gain. That's still very much my idea of "not too shabby", however, and if things stay flat it's still another 300,000+ voters, for well over 600,000 early in-person ballots. If there's a growth curve like 2004's, with the bulk of the votes coming on the last two days, we're right back at 800,000 early votes. I'll feel more comfortable making a prediction after I see Tuesday's totals, but that seems like a decent bet right now.

I'm still hearing a lot of confidence from some Democratic number crunchers, some of whom are whispering to Burka, and concern from some others. I can't break that deadlock, but I will make the following comparison of votes cast at EV locations in Democratic State Rep districts to those cast in GOP district locations between 2004 and 2008:


Dem 84,873 43.65%
Rep 104,796 53.89%
Dtn 4,784 2.46%


Dem 178,762 47.45%
Rep 186,976 49.62%
Dtn 11,023 2.93%

Bottom line, a greater share of the vote is coming from Democratic locations. That doesn't necessarily mean it's Democratic voters, and it certainly doesn't mean that will continue, but it is what we've got right now.

As for the Top Fifteen counties statewide, Texas Weekly has a nifty chart showing a comparison between 2004 and 2008. In what should be good news for Democrats, the big urban counties all have strong growth in their turnout. It'd be nice to see more robust increases in places like El Paso, but that's what we've got.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 28, 2008 to Election 2008
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