Precinct analysis: Even in his own back yard

The following comparison comes out of a conversation I had yesterday with Greg and the realization that it hasn't gotten anywhere near the attention I think it deserves. I'm talking about the result out in House Speaker Tom Craddick's district, HD82, which covers Crane, Dawson, Martin, Midland, and Upton counties. This is, needless to say, one of the most Republican parts of the state. Look at the 2006 election results (PDF) for the district; at a quick glance, it's hard to tell the difference between races with a Republican and a Democrat, and the races with a Republican and a Libertarian. This year, Craddick, who had a Democratic challenger for the first time in forever in Bill Dingus, won with a smidge more than 62% of the vote to Dingus' 35% (there was a Lib as well). That may not seem very interesting, but consider this:

County   Craddick  Dingus  McCain  Obama

========================================

Crane         821     483   1,119    319

Dawson      2,483   1,283   2,906  1,152

Martin        711     893   1,389    314

Midland    28,526  15,798  36,155  9,691

Upton         661     413     898    288


Totals     33,302  18,870  42,467 11,764

Call me crazy, but that looks like an awful lot of Republican voters - about 7 or 8 thousand of them - who crossed over to vote for Dingus. Remember, this is Tom "Speaker For Life" Craddick, arguably the most powerful politician in Texas, who has represented this district for 40 years we are talking about. And lest you think this is some skewed result that just shows West Texas antipathy to Barack Obama, here's a few more comparisons:

County   Craddick  Dingus  Cornyn Noriega

=========================================

Crane         821     483     990     319

Dawson      2,483   1,283   2,742   1,064

Martin        711     893   1,252     343

Midland    28,526  15,798  35,514   8,798

Upton         661     413     830     255


Totals     33,302  18,870  41,328  10,779

County   Craddick  Dingus Williams Thompson

===========================================

Crane         821     483      857      394

Dawson      2,483   1,283    2,366    1,214

Martin        711     893    1,142      371

Midland    28,526  15,798   34,736    8,857

Upton         661     413      716      294

Totals     33,302  18,870   39,817   11,130

County   Craddick  Dingus Wainwright Houston

============================================

Crane         821     483        797     412

Dawson      2,483   1,283      2,275   1,275

Martin        711     893      1,056     394

Midland    28,526  15,798     33,032   9,752

Upton         661     413        671     305

Totals     33,302  18,870     37,831  12,138

County   Craddick  Dingus  Johnson  Yanez

=========================================

Crane         821     483      834    398

Dawson      2,483   1,283    2,439  1,169

Martin        711     893    1,104    376

Midland    28,526  15,798   33,426  9,367

Upton         661     413      686    293

Totals     33,302  18,870   38,489 11,603

No matter how you slice it, other Republicans get thousands more votes than Craddick. And the effect is by far the strongest in Craddick's home county of Midland, where apparently to know him is not necessarily to love him.

And just to prove that this is a recent phenomenon, here's Craddick versus Bush in 2004:

County   Craddick    Bush

=========================

Crane       1,121   1,314

Dawson      2,779   3,419

Martin      1,107   1,514

Midland    36,373  36,585

Upton         857   1,009


Totals     42,237  43,841

Craddick was unopposed that year; Bush may as well have been in those counties. Ah, Midland. What did Tommy ever do to you?

Anyway. I point all this out, apparently just as the arm-twisting efforts on Craddick's behalf are being ramped up, so that the next time you hear a Craddick acolyte, like Rep. Will Hartnett or Burnet County Republican Linda Rogers, president of Texas Republican county chairmen, claim that opposition to Craddick is all about "liberals", you ask them to explain those good, solid Republicans in Midland and the rest of HD82 who voted to oust him from the House. Maybe, just maybe, it's possible to be a Republican and to think Tom Craddick is bad for Texas, too.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on December 02, 2008 to Election 2008