November 20, 2008
Precinct analysis: The Richmond Rail Effect 2008

Back in 2006, I did a series of posts that examined CD07 election results in the precincts surrounding Richmond Avenue and the route that was proposed at the time for that stretch of the Universities line to try and answer a question originally raised by Rich Connelly about whether support for rail on Richmond would be a loser in that area. My conclusion was not only did Jim Henley not lose votes to John Culberson in these precincts, he likely gained votes, and thus his support for rail on Richmond was an asset, not a liability. Even though rail was essentially a non-issue this year, I figured as long as I was knee-deep in precinct data, I might as well take a look back to see how Michael Skelly stacked up. Here's the data for the last three elections:


2004

Pcnct Ballots Culb Pct Mrtnez Pct C/M Pct M/C Pct
===============================================================
39 1809 473 26.15% 1187 65.62% 28.49% 71.51%
60 1625 422 25.97% 1027 63.20% 29.12% 70.88%
123 866 236 27.25% 544 62.82% 30.26% 69.74%
139 1688 773 45.79% 767 45.44% 50.19% 49.81%
177 1024 635 62.01% 310 30.27% 67.20% 32.80%
178 1346 905 67.24% 328 24.37% 73.40% 26.60%
233 1597 837 52.41% 610 38.20% 57.84% 42.16%
569 1791 1065 59.46% 685 38.25% 60.86% 39.14%
802 237 46 19.41% 162 68.35% 22.12% 77.88%

Total 11983 5392 45.00% 5620 46.90% 48.96% 51.04%


2006

Pcnct Ballots Culb Pct Henley Pct C/H Pct H/C Pct
===============================================================
39 1273 246 19.32% 958 75.26% 20.43% 79.57%
60 1050 202 19.24% 790 75.24% 20.36% 79.64%
123 513 117 22.81% 364 70.96% 24.32% 75.68%
139 1061 423 39.87% 564 53.16% 42.86% 57.14%
177 658 403 61.25% 237 36.02% 62.97% 37.03%
178 968 697 72.00% 231 23.86% 75.11% 24.89%
233 1583 791 49.97% 696 43.97% 53.19% 46.81%
569 1076 556 51.67% 454 42.19% 55.05% 44.95%
802 205 42 20.49% 149 72.68% 21.99% 78.01%

Total 8387 3477 41.46% 4443 52.97% 43.90% 56.10%


2008

Pcnct Ballots Culb Pct Skelly Pct C/S Pct S/C Pct
===============================================================
39 1800 316 17.56% 1310 72.78% 19.43% 80.57%
60 1524 372 24.41% 1048 68.77% 26.20% 73.80%
123 913 222 24.32% 625 68.46% 26.21% 73.79%
139 1689 677 40.08% 921 54.53% 42.37% 57.63%
177 1076 587 54.55% 437 40.61% 57.32% 42.68%
178 1395 911 65.30% 452 32.40% 66.84% 33.16%
233 2844 1309 46.03% 1370 48.17% 48.86% 51.14%
569 2175 1075 49.43% 995 45.75% 51.93% 48.07%
802 208 47 22.60% 142 68.27% 24.87% 75.13%

Total 13624 5516 40.49% 7300 53.58% 43.04% 56.96%


As before, "Pct" refers to the percent of the total ballot, which includes undervotes and votes for the Libertarian candidate. "C/x Pct" and "x/C Pct" are the straight-up Culberson versus Martinez/Henley/Skelly percentages. Precincts 39, 60, 123, and 802 are in Montrose, 178 is Afton Oaks, the epicenter of anti-rail activity back in the day, 177 and 569 are Lynn Park, Highland Village, and St. George's Place, all of which border Afton Oaks, and 139 and 233 are Greenway Plaza.

Overall, there's nothing too exciting here. Skelly lost a few points in 60, 123, and 802, but he had a pretty high standard to meet. He gained a little or more everywhere else, and flipped 233 to blue. He topped Henley by a small margin, with his biggest gains coming in Culberson's strongest turf. Given Skelly's gains in the district as a whole, that's about what you'd expect.

So there you have it. I didn't really have a point to make with this post, I just felt it needed to be included, at least before someone asked me about it. I figure that as there are still hurdles to be cleared for the Universities line, and construction is still at least a year away, this may become an issue again in 2010. Just keep these numbers in mind when Culberson or one of his proxies claims that he has the support of the voters in the area.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 20, 2008 to Election 2008
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