You may have noticed that there’s a lot of money in the Mayoral race this year, even after subtracting what the candidates have given or loaned to themselves. You may be wondering where all that money came from. This post aims to shed a little light on that.
First question: How much of the money raised by Mayoral candidates came from Houston donors, and how much came from outside Houston?
Candidate Non-Hou $ Total $ Pct %
==========================================
Garcia 539,949 1,441,792 37.4%
Costello 312,660 1,276,281 24.5%
Turner 296,588 747,793 39.7%
King 103,501 721,250 14.4%
Bell 51,288 366,770 14.0%
Hall 35,925 69,025 52.0%
McVey 21,750 43,927 49.5%
Disclaimer time: All reports can be seen here. My methodology was ridiculously simple. All donations for which the city listed in the report entry was something other than “Houston” was counted for this. Obviously, not all “Houston” addresses are actually within the city – mail sent to all of unincorporated Harris County and such small cities as West U and Southside Place say “Houston, TX” on the envelope – but I wanted to complete this exercise before the election took place, so I followed this guideline for ease of use. As with all totals presented here and elsewhere, this was a manual process, which means I looked over the reports and counted up the totals myself. It is highly likely that I goofed here and there, so consider these numbers to be reasonable estimates and not gospel truth. Finally, also as before, the “Total $” figures represent the cash money raised by each candidate, thus excluding in kind donations, loans, and (in the case of Costello) contributions from the candidate himself.
Having done this exercise, I (reluctantly) feel like I should go back and review Mayor Parker’s July forms from 2009, 2011, and 2013, as well as Gene Locke and Peter Brown’s from 2009, to see if what we’re seeing here is completely out of whack with past results or not. I know Mayor Parker had a strong national fundraising network, but I’ve no idea offhand what that meant in total dollars and proportional amounts. Whatever the case, I feel confident saying that Adrian Garcia knocked it out of the park here. He raised more from outside Houston than Chris Bell, Ben Hall, and Marty McVey raised in total combined; his non-Houston total is 75% of Bill King’s overall total. And that still left $900K from in Houston. Holy smokes.
One thing I noticed while perusing Garcia’s report: He received a ton of contributions from people with Asian names, both in Houston and not. He also had a lot of contributions from Latino/a donors, but the sheer number of Asian supporters surprised me. Make of that what you will.
I am curious what motivates someone to donate to a Mayoral candidate they can’t vote for. I get why people contribute to Congressional and Senate candidates from other places – laws made in DC affect them regardless, and partisan control matters a lot – but the justification here is somewhat less clear. To be fair, the vast majority of these non-Houston donations came from places like Katy, the Woodlands, Sugar Land, and so forth. For all the griping I did about non-Houstonians driving the red light camera referendum, it’s clear that folks who work here but live elsewhere have a stake in the outcome of elections like this. And of course some of these out of towners are in the personal networks of the candidates – friends, family, in-laws, colleagues (Sylvester Turner received several contributions from other members of the Legislature, for example), and so forth. I’d still like to understand this phenomenon a little better. Surely one of our Professional Political Pundits can put a grad student on it.
Next item: In Houston, an individual can give a maximum of $5000 to a city candidate in a given cycle, and a PAC maxes out at $10K. Having an army of small-dollar donors is a great thing in many ways, but those big checks sure add up in a hurry. How much of these hauls came from the deep pockets?
Candidate # Maxes Max $ Total $ Pct %
=====================================================
Garcia 148 745,000 1,441,792 51.7%
Costello 138 720,000 1,276,281 56.4%
Turner 76 410,000 747,793 54.8%
King 71 365,000 721,250 50.6%
Bell 25 125,000 366,770 34.1%
Hall 11 55,000 69,025 79.7%
McVey 2 10,000 43,927 22.8%
Again with the disclaimers: Same manual process as above. Not all max donors give $5K at once. There were several gifts of $2500 each, and other combinations I observed as well. “# Maxes” is the count of all max donors, both individuals and PACs, which I also counted as one even though they could give twice as much. Multiply “# Maxes” by 5,000 and the difference will tell you how many max PAC donations that candidate got.
With the large amounts of money collected, the large number of donors who gave their all should not be surprising. One reason why I did this was to see who might have a harder time replicating their success between now and the beginning of October, when the 30 day reports come due. You can’t hit up those who are tapped out for a repeat performance, after all. I guess this leaves Chris Bell in better shape than some others, but I’m not sure how much effect that will have.
I should note here that two of Ben Hall’s max donors were named Hotze, an “SM Hotze” and a “JS Hotze”. Hall has gone all in with the haters, despite his weak sauce denials. This could actually present a bit of a problem for King and to a lesser extent Costello, as both of them are in their own way wooing Republican voters. Clearly, some of those Republicans are not going to be open to them. I presume Hotze still has some sway among GOP voters (a subset of them, at least), so if he actively pushes for Hall via mail/robocall/whatever as the One True Candidate Who Will Stand Up To The Gays, then I think that has to put a ceiling on King and Costello. How much that might be I don’t know – if I were forced to guess right now I’d say “maybe two or three points” – but as we’ve been saying all along, this is likely to be a close race where not too many votes could make a big difference in the outcome. Hall is a threat to Turner as well, of course, I just wanted to point this possibility out.
I think that’s about all the patience I have for scouring the Mayoral reports. I may take a closer look at the other candidates’ reports as my copious spare time allows.
Ben Hall is a snake, and I am startled that even Pastor Ed Young or Dr. Hotze have been fooled by him. He donated to openly gay Democrat Steve Kirkland for judge, sought the endorsement of glbt political groups, but now pretends to turn 180 degrees to gain some political points.
I don’t think the average GOP social conservative voter would be amused to learn that he votes Democrat, has never donated to federal Republican candidates, but instead has donated to President Obama, Congress members Sheila Jackson Lee, Lloyd Doggett, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Henry Cuellar, and other black and liberal Democrat candidates across the nation like Rahm Emmanuel, Bennie Thompson, Mitchell Horne. Other than a handful of Republican judges before whom he practices, his state donations are all to Democrats: Sylvester Turner, Rodney Ellis, Al Edwards, Jamaal Smith, Royce West, the Houston Black American Democrats PAC and similar.
A donation for Jamaal Smith is a plus in my book! Also I like Gene Wu & Winston.
For Mainstream:
Supporting a homosexual for any position, if they are qualified is not a problem. Kirkland was and is qualified.
Not agreeing with their lifestyle is a different issue and the two should not be confused.
Certainly Mr. Mainstream you are not suggesting that all homosexuals are always in agreement with each other. I recall a transgender person by the last name of Perez that had issues with Annise Parker. I think Mr. Galvan does not normally speak highly of her either.
Mainstream, while I think Hall is crowded out of garnering much of the GOP/conservative vote by others to begin with, might some figure him as potentially more electable than a preferred candidate? It’s one thing to run in the county where the bulk of right wingers seem to reside but inside the city limits does anyone think someone right of center has a prayer of being elected?
MB, I thought Kirkland was a good candidate too but I don’t get the “all gays march in lockstep” vibe from Mainstream’s post so much as the belief that those on the right are loathe to vote for gay candidates. I don’t know that the belief is true but it does seem a commonly held belief, especially if the HERO ordinance is going to be on the ballot.
Charles: “I am curious what motivates someone to donate to a Mayoral candidate they can’t vote for”
They might be contractors trying to ingratiate themselves for future work or those with businesses trying to influence the city’s political landscape in a myriad of ways for personal benefit or beliefs. I’d say public altruism but that never seems to be a big motivator.