Tag Archives: polls

Siena/NYT: Talarico 47, Paxton 47

Posted on July 1, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Another pollster heard from. The Democratic Party has a serious chance to win a Senate seat in Texas for the first time in a generation, as James Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, begins the summer locked in a tied race … Continue reading →

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UT/Texas Politics Project: Paxton 43, Talarico 42

Posted on June 24, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

This is the first post-runoff poll from an outfit that had also polled before the GOP Senate candidate was known. Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are neck and neck in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new … Continue reading →

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Screwworm and CD23

Posted on June 13, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Funny how these things can intersect. When the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced last week that the nation’s first case of New World screwworm had been detected in Zavala County, it was a code red development for the thousands of … Continue reading →

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Texas Pulse: Talarico 46, Paxton 46

Posted on June 10, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

New pollster alert. In an early look at November’s statewide races, State Representative James Talarico (D) is up three points over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the race for US Senate, while running for re-election Governor Greg Abbott (R) … Continue reading →

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TPOR: Talarico 47, Paxton 44

Posted on June 1, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

This is a slightly weird one. Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) today released a new poll of likely Texas general election voters, surveying their attitudes on the 2026 races for U.S. Senate, Governor, and Attorney General. The survey of 1,670 … Continue reading →

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Another case for Talarico’s chances

Posted on May 31, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn in the NYT: After a decade of big talk from Democrats about Texas, it’s understandable that people could harbor some doubt about flipping the nation’s largest red state. Judging by presidential election results, Democrats barely made any … Continue reading →

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UnidosUS poll of Latino voters as we head to the midterms

Posted on May 30, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Lots here to think about. One in five Latino Texans who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 would not support him again if given a redo, according to a new poll released Wednesday. In a survey of 500 registered … Continue reading →

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Talarico’s path to victory

Posted on May 29, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the pitch. In the end, James Talarico and Democrats got the matchup they had been salivating over for months. Within two hours of Ken Paxton’s GOP primary win on Tuesday, Talarico had hauled in $600,000 — the strongest two … Continue reading →

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Some early thoughts about the 2026 primary runoffs

Posted on May 28, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

A few of my thoughts and a few from other people… – There were 114,059 votes cast in the Democratic runoff in Harris County, with 552,678 in the Lite Guv race. (There’s no way I can see to get the … Continue reading →

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Some Republicans say they disapprove of Trump’s endorsement of Paxton

Posted on May 21, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Time to put on our Susan Collins Is Very Concerned faces. President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate primary set off panic among Republicans who worry that keeping the seat will now be a more expensive and potentially … Continue reading →

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One crook endorses another

Posted on May 20, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Took his time doing it, too. President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed Ken Paxton in the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate in Texas, ending over a year of furious lobbying and giving the attorney general a significant boost in his … Continue reading →

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TSU poll: Talarico tied with Paxton, one point behind Cornyn

Posted on May 19, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another poll. A new Texas Southern University survey suggests the race for U.S. Senate in Texas could be far tighter than many voters may expect heading into the November election. Early voting for the Texas primary runoff elections … Continue reading →

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UH/Hobby poll: Parker 54, Plummer 36

Posted on May 15, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

More primary runoff polling. Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker holds an 18-point lead over Letitia Plummer, a former Houston City Council member, in the Democratic runoff for Harris County judge, according to a poll published Thursday by the University of … Continue reading →

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Okay, we need to say “no” to Maureen Galindo

Posted on May 14, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Good Lord. San Antonio Democratic congressional candidate Maureen Galindo is facing heat after an article and an op-ed, both appearing over the weekend in the New York Times accused her of spreading antisemitic conspiracy theories on social media. In response to the reports, Galindo … Continue reading →

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Two Congressional runoff polls

Posted on May 13, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Make of them what you will. Rep. Christian Menefee leads Rep. Al Green by 7 percentage points heading into the final days of the runoff, according to a new poll of the closely watched race between two Houston Democratic members … Continue reading →

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Republican panic update

Posted on May 9, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Oh, my. Texas Republicans are once again sounding alarm bells about the state’s U.S. Senate seat, saying that if Republicans nominate state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 primary runoff, it will create a drag on the entire Texas GOP ticket. … Continue reading →

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Profile of Johnny Garcia

Posted on May 8, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

The runoff for the Democratic nomination in CD35 is one of the more interesting stories for May, featuring two different types of candidates who present contrasting theories of how to win this hardly insurmountable district. Here’s a story from the … Continue reading →

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New UH/Hobby poll has Paxton beating Cornyn in the Senate runoff

Posted on May 6, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

As long as they keep beating each other up, it’s all good. Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn by three percentage points in a new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate Republican runoff, suggesting the May 26 contest will … Continue reading →

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Texas Politics Project poll: Talarico leads again

Posted on May 1, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

It’s becoming a trend. Democrat James Talarico leads both Republicans vying to face him in the November U.S. Senate contest, according to a new poll released Wednesday. Talarico led U.S. Sen. John Cornyn 40% to 33% in a potential matchup, and held … Continue reading →

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TPOR poll: Talarico leading both Cornyn and Paxton

Posted on April 29, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

This will never get old. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading both of his prospective Republican opponents in a new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race — though the result is within the margin of error in either scenario, … Continue reading →

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Some poll news and other tidbits

Posted on April 26, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

From Somos Votantes: Today, Somos Votantes released new polling data showing Latino voters in key states and districts are rejecting President Trump and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, driven by mounting economic pain, widespread disapproval of Republican’s tariff and healthcare policies, and … Continue reading →

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Everyone’s talking about the CD23 special election

Posted on April 24, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Except for Greg Abbott, of course. It’s been about a week since now-former Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress after the Texas Republican admitted to having an unethical sexual relationship with at least one former aide, who later died by suicide. Yet … Continue reading →

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So when would a CD23 election be?

Posted on April 16, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Your move, Greg. The sprawling 23rd Congressional District of Texas is now without a voting representative in Washington D.C. after U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned Tuesday. The resignation ends a sex scandal that had put the San Antonio Republican on … Continue reading →

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Dan Patrick has the blues

Posted on April 10, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Not the sort of thing our boy Danno usually says. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Wednesday said Texas Republicans are “going to have a tough time” holding onto their majority in the state House this fall, the latest and perhaps … Continue reading →

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Second post-primary poll shows Talarico up

Posted on March 24, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the basic info, the poll was conducted by Impact Research between March 12-17, which makes it fully after the first poll we saw, both of which have Rep. James Talarico narrowly up on both Sen. John Cornyn and AG … Continue reading →

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More on CD23 and Katy Padilla Stout

Posted on March 15, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

This time with polling data. When Katy Padilla Stout first announced a bid for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, neither the former teacher — nor the Republican-held seat — were on many Democrats’ radar. But now that the Republican incumbent has … Continue reading →

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First post-primary poll

Posted on March 10, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

A good start. A PPP poll commissioned by Senate Majority PAC found “no meaningful difference in electability” between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a general election matchup against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. It’s notable to us that Senate Democrats are pushing … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts on the 2026 primaries

Posted on March 5, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

We don’t have full turnout numbers yet, but as of Wednesday some 363,826 votes were cast in the Democratic primary for Senate in Harris County, while there were 197,389 votes cast on the Republican side. About 140K votes were cast … Continue reading →

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A few followup items from Tuesday

Posted on March 5, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

This is officially my favorite story from the primaries. Texas congressional candidate Vince Shlomi, known as the “ShamWow guy,” is suing the Republican Party of Texas, accusing it of “rigging” the primary after he says the party removed his nickname from the … Continue reading →

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On Republican meddling in the Democratic Senate primary

Posted on March 3, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is closing with a fierce debate that has animated it from the start: Who would Republicans rather face in November? The leading candidates, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett … Continue reading →

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A history of early voting turnout in the primaries

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting is over. We’ve already discussed the final EV totals, but there was something of note that I didn’t mention yesterday that I want to comment on today: Year Mail Early Total ===================================== 2018 Dem 22,695 70,152 92,847 2018 … Continue reading →

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Final 2026 early voting report: That was something

Posted on February 28, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday, the last day for early voting, was huge: Over 77K votes cast, with 51K of them being on the Democratic side. I didn’t get the report until almost midnight last night, and so didn’t finish this post until this … Continue reading →

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Two polls favorable to Talarico

Posted on February 28, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

After I published Thursday’s post about the February UT/Texas Politics Project poll that showed Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading Rep. James Talarico by a 56-44 margin in the Democratic primary for US Senate, I got a comment on Facebook saying a … Continue reading →

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2026 primary early voting Day Ten: One more day to go

Posted on February 27, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

One more time from Derek Ryan. Turnout Comparison Based on the data I have, here is where things stand through Wednesday: -856,191 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.6% of all registered voters). The Secretary of State is reporting … Continue reading →

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