Tag Archives: Kamala Harris

Another case for Talarico’s chances

Posted on May 31, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn in the NYT: After a decade of big talk from Democrats about Texas, it’s understandable that people could harbor some doubt about flipping the nation’s largest red state. Judging by presidential election results, Democrats barely made any … Continue reading →

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A history of early voting turnout in the primaries

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting is over. We’ve already discussed the final EV totals, but there was something of note that I didn’t mention yesterday that I want to comment on today: Year Mail Early Total ===================================== 2018 Dem 22,695 70,152 92,847 2018 … Continue reading →

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Final 2026 early voting report: That was something

Posted on February 28, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday, the last day for early voting, was huge: Over 77K votes cast, with 51K of them being on the Democratic side. I didn’t get the report until almost midnight last night, and so didn’t finish this post until this … Continue reading →

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UH/Hobby primary poll: Crockett and Paxton lead

Posted on February 11, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Make of it what you will. Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just over a week before the start of … Continue reading →

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A closer look at the Cy-Fair ISD elections

Posted on November 25, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Good stuff. When Lesley Guilmart’s cellphone rang Wednesday afternoon, she almost didn’t answer the unknown number. “I’ve been getting interesting calls from folks since last week’s win,” said Guilmart, who on Nov. 4 was elected to the Cy-Fair ISD Board … Continue reading →

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The latest UH/Hobby poll has some red flags for Republicans

Posted on October 12, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

First, the headline stories, which don’t interest me much. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are effectively tied in the Republican primary race for U.S. Senate, with 34% of voters backing Paxton and 33% supporting Cornyn. 22% support Wesley Hunt. Jasmine … Continue reading →

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Comparing the districts

Posted on August 11, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

As I write this on Sunday, there’s a lot we don’t know about how this saga ends. I feel confident saying that at some point there will be a quorum and a new map will be passed. Beyond that is … Continue reading →

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Opening look at the re-redistricting effort

Posted on July 12, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

They’re coming for our districts. More than one million Houstonians could have new congressional representation as early as next year under Gov. Greg Abbott’s push to redraw the state’s political maps. Abbott has ordered the Texas Legislature into a special … Continue reading →

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UnidosUS poll of Latino voters about current events

Posted on May 2, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: UnidosUS, Voces Unidas, the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) and Climate Power en Acción released today findings from the 2025 “First 100 Days Bipartisan Poll of the Hispanic Electorate,” the largest national bipartisan poll of … Continue reading →

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Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund analysis of the 2024 election

Posted on February 3, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: The Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund—a political action committee that is building and improving infrastructure to create conditions under which Democrats can win in Texas—released its preliminary breakdown of the 2024 election results. The data analysis, conducted in … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: President 2024

Posted on December 30, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I know you’ve been waiting for this, and now here it is, the 2024 precinct data for Harris County. We’ll start at the top, with the Presidential race. Dist Trump Harris Lib Grn ========================================= CD02 101,141 73,399 1,112 1,027 CD07 … Continue reading →

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A different perspective on turnout

Posted on December 10, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From the December 3 New York Times daily newsletter: If you’ve been reading post-election coverage, you’ve probably seen one of the big takeaways from the returns so far: In counties across the country, Kamala Harris won many fewer votes than … Continue reading →

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My quadrennial warning to be careful with charts and percentages

Posted on November 25, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From City of Yes: The sun came up Wednesday morning, but for many, no doubt, our proverbial American “shining city on a hill” had lost some of its luster. While the presidential election results have disappointed many city dwellers, the … Continue reading →

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Can HISD pass the next bond?

Posted on November 19, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

It depends. After Houston ISD’s historic bond failure in November, several parents, teachers and community members are wondering if or when the state’s largest school district will go back to voters to place another measure on the ballot. […] Some … Continue reading →

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Republicans performed more or less at 2020 levels in Harris County

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Obviously, the Republicans did well in Harris County this year, better than I expected for sure. They won some judicial races – they’re probably kicking themselves for not contesting more of them – and in general came a lot closer … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: In my neighborhood

Posted on November 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I won’t have access to a Harris County canvass for a couple of weeks, and I may or may not do some countywide comparisons, but I did wonder about how the vote went in my neighborhood. I do a lot … Continue reading →

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Just a couple of thoughts because I’m not ready for more yet

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

There’s an older gentleman who rides his bike around the neighborhood. I see him pretty regularly when I’m out walking the dog. We always wave hello as we pass by. On Sunday he pulled his bike over to the curb … Continue reading →

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Well, that sucked

Posted on November 6, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

It’s about 10:30 PM as I write this, and I don’t care to stay up any longer. The national situation looks dicey, but it’s not yet clear what will happen. I’ll put that off for now. It was bad here … Continue reading →

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Today is Election Day

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox. Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth announced that more than 1,170,000 voters cast their ballots in person during the 12-day early voting period for the November 5, 2024 Special and General Election. Including the 57,000 received mail ballots, … Continue reading →

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A brief list of things I’ll be watching for today

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

In no particular order… 1. I don’t expect Democrats to win statewide in Texas. It would be great, it would do a world of good, but I’d be setting myself up for disappointment if I start there. What I want … Continue reading →

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The billboards of Fayette County

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Members of the local Democratic party in rural, bright red Fayette County were thrilled this month when they learned their hours of phone banking and fundraising would finally pay off. The party’s … Continue reading →

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Final November 2024 early voting: Definitely short

Posted on November 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting is done, and I have to say, we didn’t get to where I expected we would: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting are Mail = 57,059 In Person = 1,175,901 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Eleven: One more day

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Hard to believe, it seems like this election has been going on since the late 90s, but we have one day of early voting to go. Your early voting results through Thursday, Day Eleven: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 … Continue reading →

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Is this the year Tarrant County finally goes blue?

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Maybe. “Tarrant County is the 15th-largest county in the country, so it should get a lot of attention. And it’s the third-largest county in Texas, so it makes sense that there would be a lot of focus there,” said Mark … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Ten: Slower so far than I expected

Posted on October 31, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’ve got two days of EV remaining. Your early voting results through Wednesday, Day Ten: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting are Mail = 51,477 In Person = 961,273 Total = 1,012,750 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Eight: Second Monday

Posted on October 29, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’re in the second and final week of early voting. There are now four days of EV remaining. Your early voting results through Monday, Day Eight: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Seven: The weekend

Posted on October 28, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Just going to get right into it here. Your early voting results through Sunday, Day Seven: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after seven days of early voting are Mail = 44,805 In Person = 686,937 Total = … Continue reading →

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Comparing early voting apples to apples

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron’s writeup of the first five days of early voting is an incomplete picture. Is turnout up or down in Texas in the 2024 election? It depends on how you look at it. Since early voting began Monday, more … Continue reading →

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UTSA poll for October: A little weird

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Not really sure how to explain this other than to say polls be weird sometimes. A new survey from UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research indicated that in bright blue San Antonio, support has been growing for Democrat Colin Allred in his uphill … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Five: The average so far

Posted on October 26, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’re at the end of the first week of early voting – I was able to wait for the Day Five report before writing this, so I’m caught up for now. It was a very busy week. Let’s take a … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Three: Let’s not overanalyze this

Posted on October 25, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Lone Star Left caught my eye on Wednesday as they looked at the statewide early voting data so far. All day, I waited for a full update from the Secretary of State (SoS) regarding the Day 1 early voter turnout. … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Two: On average

Posted on October 24, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Reading this story gave me an idea for how to talk about early voting so far compared to 2020. The first day of early voting for El Paso County’s general election drew 31% fewer voters than the record-setting 2020 race. … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day One: Where are the mail ballots?

Posted on October 23, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

As I said yesterday, the Day One early voting report came in a little too late on Monday night for me to queue this up for Tuesday. It’s also the case that comparing this year to 2020 is not going … Continue reading →

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Make that 18.6 million registered voters

Posted on October 22, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

That’s a lot. Texas added nearly 200,000 voters to its rolls in the two weeks before the deadline to register, according to state data, giving the state a record-breaking 18.6 million voters going into this year’s election. Since 2016, when … Continue reading →

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