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Polling Texas 2020
UT/Trib, Apr 25: Trump 49, Biden 44
DT/PPP, Apr 29: Biden 47, Trump 46
UT-Tyler/DMN, May 3: Trump 43, Biden 43
Emerson, May 13: Trump 47, Biden 41
Quinnipiac, June 3: Trump 44, Biden 43
PPP, June 5: Trump 48, Biden 48
PPP/PT, June 23: Trump 48, Biden 46
Fox, June 25: Biden 45, Trump 44
UT/Trib, July 2: Trump 48, Biden 44
PPP/Emily’s List, July 2: Biden 48, Trump 46
UT-Tyler/DMN, July 12: Biden 48, Trump 43
CBSNews, July 12: Trump 46, Biden 45
Quinnipiac, July 22: Biden 45, Trump 44
Morning Consult, July 28: Biden 47, Trump 45
Morning Consult, August 3: Biden 47, Trump 46
Polling Texas 2018
WPA, Jan 5: Cruz 52, O'Rourke 34
PPP, Jan 27: Cruz 45, O'Rourke 37
Quinnipiac, April 19: Cruz 47, O'Rourke 44
Quinnipiac, May 31: Cruz 50, O'Rourke 39
PPP, June 8: Cruz 48, O'Rourke 42
GQR, June 16: Cruz 49, O'Rourke 43
CBS/YouGov, June 24: Cruz 44, O'Rourke 36
UT/Trib, June 25: Cruz 41, O'Rourke 36
Gravis, July 10: Cruz 51, O'Rourke 42
Lyceum, July 31: Cruz 41, O'Rourke 39
Quinnipiac, July 31: Cruz 49, O'Rourke 43
PPP, August 2: Cruz 46, O'Rourke 42
NBC News, August 23: Cruz 49, O'Rourke 45
ECPS, August 27: Cruz 38, O'Rourke 37
Crosswinds, September 12: Cruz 47, O'Rourke 44
Quinnipiac, September 18 (LV): Cruz 54, O'Rourke 45
Ipsos, September 19 (LV): O'Rourke 47, Cruz 45Polling Texas 2016
Beatty, Jun 22: Trump 37, Clinton 30
UT/TTP, Jun 27: Trump 41, Clinton 33
KTVT/Dixie, Aug 11: Trump 46, Clinton 35
PPP, Aug 16: Trump 44, Clinton 38
WaPo-SurveyMonkey, Sep 6: Clinton 46, Trump 45
ECPS, Sep 14: Trump 42, Clinton 36
Texas Lyceum, Sep 15: Trump 39, Clinton 32
YouGov, Oct 3: Trump 50,1, Clinton 41.5
KTVT/Dixie, Oct 5: Trump 45, Clinton 38
WFAA/SurveyUSA, Oct 14: Trump 47, Clinton 43
UH Hobby Center, Oct 17: Trump 41, Clinton 38
WaPo/SurveyMonkey, Oct 17: Trump 48, Clinton 46
CBS/YouGov, Oct 23: Trump 46, Clinton 43
Crosswind/Statesman, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 38
UT/TT, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 42
KTVT/Dixie Strategies, Nov 2: Trump 52, Clinton 39
NBC/WSJ/Marist, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 40
ECPS, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 34
YouGov, Nov 5: Trump 50.3, Clinton 42.4Polling Texas 2014
UT/TT, Nov 2013: Abbott 40, Davis 35, Glass 5
PPP, Nov 2013: Abbott 50, Davis 35
UT/TT, Feb 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 36
ECPS, Mar 2014: Abbott 49, Davis 42
Rasmussen, Mar 2014: Abbott 53, Davis 41
PPP, Apr 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 37
UT/TT, June 2014:Abbott 44, Davis 32
YouGov, July 2014: Abbott 50, Davis 34
Rasmussen, Aug 2014: Abbott 48, Davis 40
YouGov, Sep 2014: Abbott 56, Davis 38
Lyceum, Oct 2014: Abbott 49, Davis 40
Rasmussen, Oct 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 40
KHOU, Oct 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 32
UT/TT, Oct 2014: Abbott 54, Davis 38
YouGov, Oct 2014: Abbott 57, Davis 37Polling Texas 2012
PPP April 26: Romney 50, Obama 43
UT/TT May 22: Romney 46, Obama 38 (RV) - Romney 55, Obama 35 (LV)
WPAOR Sep 13: Romney 55, Obama 40
YouGov Sep 24: Romney 52, Obama 41
Lyceum Oct 2: Romney 58, Obama 39
YouGov Oct 17: Romney 55, Obama 41
UT/TT Oct 29: Romney 55, Obama 39
Baselice Oct 30: Romney 54, Obama 38
YouGov Nov 3: Romney 57, Obama 38-
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- What happens if Corpus Christi runs out of water?
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- First post-primary poll
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Polling Texas 2016
Beatty, Jun 22: Trump 37, Clinton 30
UT/TTP, Jun 27: Trump 41, Clinton 33
KTVT/Dixie, Aug 11: Trump 46, Clinton 35
PPP, Aug 16: Trump 44, Clinton 38
WaPo-SurveyMonkey, Sep 6: Clinton 46, Trump 45
ECPS, Sep 14: Trump 42, Clinton 36
Texas Lyceum, Sep 15: Trump 39, Clinton 32
YouGov, Oct 3: Trump 50,1, Clinton 41.5
KTVT/Dixie, Oct 5: Trump 45, Clinton 38
WFAA/SurveyUSA, Oct 14: Trump 47, Clinton 43
UH Hobby Center, Oct 17: Trump 41, Clinton 38
WaPo/SurveyMonkey, Oct 17: Trump 48, Clinton 46
CBS/YouGov, Oct 23: Trump 46, Clinton 43
Crosswind/Statesman, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 38
UT/TT, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 42
KTVT/Dixie Strategies, Nov 2: Trump 52, Clinton 39
NBC/WSJ/Marist, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 40
ECPS, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 34
YouGov, Nov 5: Trump 50,3, Clinton 42.4
Polling Texas 2014
UT/TT, Nov 2013: Abbott 40, Davis 35, Glass 5
PPP, Nov 2013: Abbott 50, Davis 35
UT/TT, Feb 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 36
ECPS, Mar 2014: Abbott 49, Davis 42
Rasmussen, Mar 2014: Abbott 53, Davis 41
PPP, Apr 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 37
UT/TT, June 2014:Abbott 44, Davis 32
YouGov, July 2014: Abbott 50, Davis 34
Rasmussen, Aug 2014: Abbott 48, Davis 40
YouGov, Sep 2014: Abbott 56, Davis 38
Lyceum, Oct 2014: Abbott 49, Davis 40
Rasmussen, Oct 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 40
KHOU, Oct 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 32
UT/TT, Oct 2014: Abbott 54, Davis 38
YouGov, Oct 2014: Abbott 57, Davis 37
Polling Texas 2012
PPP April 26: Romney 50, Obama 43
UT/TT May 22: Romney 46, Obama 38 (RV) - Romney 55, Obama 35 (LV)
WPAOR Sep 13: Romney 55, Obama 40
YouGov Sep 24: Romney 52, Obama 41
Lyceum Oct 2: Romney 58, Obama 39
YouGov Oct 17: Romney 55, Obama 41
UT/TT Oct 29: Romney 55, Obama 39
Baselice Oct 30: Romney 54, Obama 38
YouGov Nov 3: Romney 57, Obama 38
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Recent Comments
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Recent Posts
- Interview with Sophia Campos
- Abbott threatens to take over Corpus Christi
- Ivermectin 4Ever
- Texas blog roundup for the week of March 9
- The “number of primary votes by Congressional district” metric
- What happens if Corpus Christi runs out of water?
- Chron overview of District C special election
- First post-primary poll
- No last minute reprieve for KP George
- The school district that didn’t get taken over
- A followup on turnout and early voting preference
- Mayor Whitmire finally says something about HPD and ICE
- On deepfakes and accountability
- Weekend link dump for March 8
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Utilities
Tag Archives: Election 2024
The “number of primary votes by Congressional district” metric
Noting this for the record. With the possible exception of U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico, the most relieved Democrats after Tuesday’s primary might be U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of South Texas. Their relief has less to do … Continue reading
From the “FAFO: South Texas” files
Not one but two articles from Politico, on back-to-back days, about some Republicans getting all nervous about Trump and his anti-immigrant rampage. First up: Home builders are warning President Donald Trump that his aggressive immigration enforcement efforts are hurting their … Continue reading
A statewide comparison
I mentioned this yesterday, so here it is. I decided to look at the most recent early voting turnout numbers I could find for the counties, and then compare them to the final turnout numbers from the 2022 election. I’ll … Continue reading
A history of early voting turnout in the primaries
Early voting is over. We’ve already discussed the final EV totals, but there was something of note that I didn’t mention yesterday that I want to comment on today: Year Mail Early Total ===================================== 2018 Dem 22,695 70,152 92,847 2018 … Continue reading
Final 2026 early voting report: That was something
Yesterday, the last day for early voting, was huge: Over 77K votes cast, with 51K of them being on the Democratic side. I didn’t get the report until almost midnight last night, and so didn’t finish this post until this … Continue reading
2026 primary early voting Day Ten: One more day to go
One more time from Derek Ryan. Turnout Comparison Based on the data I have, here is where things stand through Wednesday: -856,191 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.6% of all registered voters). The Secretary of State is reporting … Continue reading
UT/Texas Politics Project: Crockett 56, Talarico 44
Adding it to the poll pile. Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has a double-digit lead over Austin state Rep. James Talarico in the final days of Texas’ Senate Democratic primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday. In the survey, … Continue reading
2026 primary early voting Day Nine: Keep on keeping on
Here’s another Derek Ryan update. Turnout Comparison Based on the data I have, here is where things stand: -747,153 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.0% of all registered voters). -865,385 people have voted in the Democratic Primary (4.6% … Continue reading
2026 primary early voting Day Eight: Beyond the point of comparison
We are eight days into early voting, past both of the Mondays that made daily comparisons to past elections a challenge, and you know what? It doesn’t matter anymore, because the early vote total in Harris County so far is … Continue reading
More deep dives on primary data
From Levi Asher: Everyone is talking about the massive early voting numbers in the Texas Democratic primary. Through Day 5, Harris County has already seen 76,555 Democratic ballots cast, more than double where we were at this point in 2024. … Continue reading
The best-laid plans to hand-count ballots often go awry
Oh, Gillespie County. You rascals, you. Gillespie County Republicans have scrapped plans to hand count all of their 2026 primary ballots after failing to recruit enough workers — at least for early voting. The lack of manpower prompted party officials … Continue reading
A closer look at the EV data so far
Derek Ryan is back with his analysis of the three-day EV numbers. Through the first three days of early voting (Tues – Thurs), I have been able to identify 303,095 people who have voted in the Republican Primary (1.6% turnout) … Continue reading
UH/Hobby primary poll: Crockett and Paxton lead
Make of it what you will. Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just over a week before the start of … Continue reading
Amanda Edwards suspends her campaign
Not a surprise. Former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards is suspending her full-term campaign for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, a week after suffering a decisive loss in the special runoff election for the remainder of the term. Because of … Continue reading
Everyone’s talking about SD09 now
Time for a roundup, because there’s just so much. I’m going to start with a couple of social media posts that highlight some numbers, and then go on to the many articles I’ve come across. Buckle up. Dana, there was … Continue reading
A brief note about the latest Cook Political Report House race ratings
I was struck by what seems to be an omission as I read this Daily Kos post about the state of the 2026 election. As Trump tries to shore up the GOP’s fragile House majority through norms-busting mid-decade redistricting, the … Continue reading
Slightly better but still bad
That’s how one would describe the latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll numbers for Donald Trump and Texas Republicans. The dominant political narrative for much of the past year has been that Democrats are sitting pretty heading into the 2026 midterms, … Continue reading
The Republican non-turnout problem
Simon Rosenberg flags something of interest, about how MAGA voters are unhappy with the way things are going. Of course this represents an extraordinary betrayal of what the flim-flam confidence man promised the American people when he ran last year. … Continue reading
Dallas County Republicans abandon hand count plan
Some unexpected sanity. After months of laying the groundwork to hand-count thousands of ballots in the March 3 primary, the Dallas County Republican Party announced on Tuesday it has decided not to do so, opting instead to contract with the county elections … Continue reading
The Congressional situation in Texas
I’m always happy to see stories like this. The main group working to elect Democrats to the U.S. House announced Wednesday it sees a path to victory in a district that Texas Republicans just redrew to be more GOP-friendly. The … Continue reading
How aggressive will Dems be in legislative races?
This is a good start, but I hope they ratchet it up from there. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s national arm that targets legislative races, announced Wednesday that it plans to put resources into Texas next year for … Continue reading
The Dallas County GOP’s hand-counting debacle
This is going to be a disaster. Dallas County Republicans say they’re planning to go ahead with hand-counting tens of thousands of Election Day ballots cast in the upcoming March 3 primary after raising more than $400,000 towards the effort. … Continue reading
Both Tarrant County redistricting lawsuits have been dismissed
Not a surprise. Both lawsuits accusing Tarrant County of racial gerrymandering are now over. A group of Tarrant County residents who sued over the new commissioners court precinct map withdrew their lawsuit Monday without a clear explanation. A second lawsuit, brought by … Continue reading
Another story about Taylor Rehmet
This one has more numbers in it. Despite the district’s solid-red reputation, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the most votes in a Tuesday special election for vacant Senate District 9. The district, represented by Kelly Hancock since 2013, encompasses northern Tarrant … Continue reading
A bit more election miscellany
Pondering the County Attorney situation. Despite technically resigning, [Harris County Attorney Christian] Menefee has remained the acting county attorney throughout the campaign period. It’s not clear if he will remain in the position as he prepares to campaign for a … Continue reading
Finally, a real story about Taylor Rehmet
Amazing what a little overperforming versus expectations can do. For months, the special election to succeed Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock in a red-leaning North Texas Senate seat revolved around the two Republicans in the race. But once the early voting … Continue reading
The latest UT Politics Project poll also has some warning signs for Republicans
Two data points isn’t enough for a trend, but it is worth noticing. A small majority of Texans oppose the deployment of the Texas National Guard for law enforcement in cities out of state, according to a recent statewide survey. … Continue reading
Fifth Circuit upholds Tarrant County redistricting map
Not a surprise. A group of Tarrant County residents who sued over the county’s redistricting process did not prove the new map is racially discriminatory, a federal appeals court ruled Wednesday. Tarrant County’s Republican commissioners pushed through an unusual mid-decade redistricting … Continue reading
McLennan County joins the mid-decade redistricting trend
Three does make a trend. An unusual mid-decade redistricting that McLennan County commissioners quietly approved this past week appears to transfer thousands of Republican voters to the historically Democrat-friendly Precinct 2 of the Commissioners Court. Precinct 2 was drawn in … Continue reading
Sen. Eckhardt will run for CD10
Game on. State Sen. Sarah Eckhardt launched her campaign for Texas’ 10th Congressional District on Monday, saying voters in the district, long held by Republicans, deserve choices. The Austin Democrat’s announcement comes a month and a half after Rep. Michael … Continue reading
The latest UH/Hobby poll has some red flags for Republicans
First, the headline stories, which don’t interest me much. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are effectively tied in the Republican primary race for U.S. Senate, with 34% of voters backing Paxton and 33% supporting Cornyn. 22% support Wesley Hunt. Jasmine … Continue reading
Three ridiculous voting and election stories
“Silly season” doesn’t begin to cover this stuff. Item 1: Paxton sides with Texas GOP, against secretary of state in lawsuit seeking to close primaries Last month, the Republican Party of Texas sued over a state law that allows anyone … Continue reading
Talarico rakes it in
Impressive. State Rep. James Talarico raised $6.2 million in the first three weeks of his bid for Senate, his campaign announced Wednesday, a massive haul that far outpaces the earliest fundraising numbers tallied by recent Democratic statewide hopefuls. The staggering … Continue reading