Tag Archives: Election 2024

The “number of primary votes by Congressional district” metric

Noting this for the record. With the possible exception of U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico, the most relieved Democrats after Tuesday’s primary might be U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of South Texas. Their relief has less to do … Continue reading

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From the “FAFO: South Texas” files

Not one but two articles from Politico, on back-to-back days, about some Republicans getting all nervous about Trump and his anti-immigrant rampage. First up: Home builders are warning President Donald Trump that his aggressive immigration enforcement efforts are hurting their … Continue reading

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A statewide comparison

I mentioned this yesterday, so here it is. I decided to look at the most recent early voting turnout numbers I could find for the counties, and then compare them to the final turnout numbers from the 2022 election. I’ll … Continue reading

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A history of early voting turnout in the primaries

Early voting is over. We’ve already discussed the final EV totals, but there was something of note that I didn’t mention yesterday that I want to comment on today: Year Mail Early Total ===================================== 2018 Dem 22,695 70,152 92,847 2018 … Continue reading

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Final 2026 early voting report: That was something

Yesterday, the last day for early voting, was huge: Over 77K votes cast, with 51K of them being on the Democratic side. I didn’t get the report until almost midnight last night, and so didn’t finish this post until this … Continue reading

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2026 primary early voting Day Ten: One more day to go

One more time from Derek Ryan. Turnout Comparison Based on the data I have, here is where things stand through Wednesday: -856,191 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.6% of all registered voters). The Secretary of State is reporting … Continue reading

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UT/Texas Politics Project: Crockett 56, Talarico 44

Adding it to the poll pile. Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has a double-digit lead over Austin state Rep. James Talarico in the final days of Texas’ Senate Democratic primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday. In the survey, … Continue reading

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2026 primary early voting Day Nine: Keep on keeping on

Here’s another Derek Ryan update. Turnout Comparison Based on the data I have, here is where things stand: -747,153 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.0% of all registered voters). -865,385 people have voted in the Democratic Primary (4.6% … Continue reading

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2026 primary early voting Day Eight: Beyond the point of comparison

We are eight days into early voting, past both of the Mondays that made daily comparisons to past elections a challenge, and you know what? It doesn’t matter anymore, because the early vote total in Harris County so far is … Continue reading

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More deep dives on primary data

From Levi Asher: Everyone is talking about the massive early voting numbers in the Texas Democratic primary. Through Day 5, Harris County has already seen 76,555 Democratic ballots cast, more than double where we were at this point in 2024. … Continue reading

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The best-laid plans to hand-count ballots often go awry

Oh, Gillespie County. You rascals, you. Gillespie County Republicans have scrapped plans to hand count all of their 2026 primary ballots after failing to recruit enough workers — at least for early voting. The lack of manpower prompted party officials … Continue reading

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A closer look at the EV data so far

Derek Ryan is back with his analysis of the three-day EV numbers. Through the first three days of early voting (Tues – Thurs), I have been able to identify 303,095 people who have voted in the Republican Primary (1.6% turnout) … Continue reading

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UH/Hobby primary poll: Crockett and Paxton lead

Make of it what you will. Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just over a week before the start of … Continue reading

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Amanda Edwards suspends her campaign

Not a surprise. Former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards is suspending her full-term campaign for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, a week after suffering a decisive loss in the special runoff election for the remainder of the term. Because of … Continue reading

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Everyone’s talking about SD09 now

Time for a roundup, because there’s just so much. I’m going to start with a couple of social media posts that highlight some numbers, and then go on to the many articles I’ve come across. Buckle up. Dana, there was … Continue reading

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A brief note about the latest Cook Political Report House race ratings

I was struck by what seems to be an omission as I read this Daily Kos post about the state of the 2026 election. As Trump tries to shore up the GOP’s fragile House majority through norms-busting mid-decade redistricting, the … Continue reading

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A Taylor Rehmet check-in

I’m still not sure what to expect in this runoff. Even some of his most passionate supporters were surprised by the number of votes Democrat Taylor Rehmet received in the November special election for Texas Senate District 9. His competitors, … Continue reading

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Slightly better but still bad

That’s how one would describe the latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll numbers for Donald Trump and Texas Republicans. The dominant political narrative for much of the past year has been that Democrats are sitting pretty heading into the 2026 midterms, … Continue reading

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The Republican non-turnout problem

Simon Rosenberg flags something of interest, about how MAGA voters are unhappy with the way things are going. Of course this represents an extraordinary betrayal of what the flim-flam confidence man promised the American people when he ran last year. … Continue reading

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Dallas County Republicans abandon hand count plan

Some unexpected sanity. After months of laying the groundwork to hand-count thousands of ballots in the March 3 primary, the Dallas County Republican Party announced on Tuesday it has decided not to do so, opting instead to contract with the county elections … Continue reading

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The Congressional situation in Texas

I’m always happy to see stories like this. The main group working to elect Democrats to the U.S. House announced Wednesday it sees a path to victory in a district that Texas Republicans just redrew to be more GOP-friendly. The … Continue reading

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How aggressive will Dems be in legislative races?

This is a good start, but I hope they ratchet it up from there. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s national arm that targets legislative races, announced Wednesday that it plans to put resources into Texas next year for … Continue reading

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The Dallas County GOP’s hand-counting debacle

This is going to be a disaster. Dallas County Republicans say they’re planning to go ahead with hand-counting tens of thousands of Election Day ballots cast in the upcoming March 3 primary after raising more than $400,000 towards the effort. … Continue reading

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Both Tarrant County redistricting lawsuits have been dismissed

Not a surprise. Both lawsuits accusing Tarrant County of racial gerrymandering are now over. A group of Tarrant County residents who sued over the new commissioners court precinct map withdrew their lawsuit Monday without a clear explanation. A second lawsuit, brought by … Continue reading

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Another story about Taylor Rehmet

This one has more numbers in it. Despite the district’s solid-red reputation, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the most votes in a Tuesday special election for vacant Senate District 9. The district, represented by Kelly Hancock since 2013, encompasses northern Tarrant … Continue reading

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A bit more election miscellany

Pondering the County Attorney situation. Despite technically resigning, [Harris County Attorney Christian] Menefee has remained the acting county attorney throughout the campaign period. It’s not clear if he will remain in the position as he prepares to campaign for a … Continue reading

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Finally, a real story about Taylor Rehmet

Amazing what a little overperforming versus expectations can do. For months, the special election to succeed Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock in a red-leaning North Texas Senate seat revolved around the two Republicans in the race. But once the early voting … Continue reading

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The latest UT Politics Project poll also has some warning signs for Republicans

Two data points isn’t enough for a trend, but it is worth noticing. A small majority of Texans oppose the deployment of the Texas National Guard for law enforcement in cities out of state, according to a recent statewide survey. … Continue reading

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Fifth Circuit upholds Tarrant County redistricting map

Not a surprise. A group of Tarrant County residents who sued over the county’s redistricting process did not prove the new map is racially discriminatory, a federal appeals court ruled Wednesday. Tarrant County’s Republican commissioners pushed through an unusual mid-decade redistricting … Continue reading

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McLennan County joins the mid-decade redistricting trend

Three does make a trend. An unusual mid-decade redistricting that McLennan County commissioners quietly approved this past week appears to transfer thousands of Republican voters to the historically Democrat-friendly Precinct 2 of the Commissioners Court. Precinct 2 was drawn in … Continue reading

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Sen. Eckhardt will run for CD10

Game on. State Sen. Sarah Eckhardt launched her campaign for Texas’ 10th Congressional District on Monday, saying voters in the district, long held by Republicans, deserve choices. The Austin Democrat’s announcement comes a month and a half after Rep. Michael … Continue reading

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The latest UH/Hobby poll has some red flags for Republicans

First, the headline stories, which don’t interest me much. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are effectively tied in the Republican primary race for U.S. Senate, with 34% of voters backing Paxton and 33% supporting Cornyn. 22% support Wesley Hunt. Jasmine … Continue reading

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Three ridiculous voting and election stories

“Silly season” doesn’t begin to cover this stuff. Item 1: Paxton sides with Texas GOP, against secretary of state in lawsuit seeking to close primaries Last month, the Republican Party of Texas sued over a state law that allows anyone … Continue reading

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Talarico rakes it in

Impressive. State Rep. James Talarico raised $6.2 million in the first three weeks of his bid for Senate, his campaign announced Wednesday, a massive haul that far outpaces the earliest fundraising numbers tallied by recent Democratic statewide hopefuls. The staggering … Continue reading

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