Democracy Toolbox (PPP): Biden 47, Trump 46

From the inbox:

A new Texas poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden up by one percentage point over President Donald Trump and also provides insights into Texans’ concerns about voting during the COVID-19 outbreak. The poll was commissioned by Democracy Toolbox and conducted by Public Policy Polling April 27-28, yielding 1032 landline and cell phone responses, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

When asked to choose between Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Donald Trump in the presidential contest, 47 percent responded that they would vote for Joe Biden, 46 percent for Donald Trump, and seven percent were unsure. Forty-nine percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 46 percent approve. Governor Gregg Abbott fared much better, with 58 percent approving of his job performance and 30 percent disapproving.

The poll also asked a number of questions to discover how Texans are feeling about voting in the era of COVID-19, particularly voting in person, and whether the pandemic could impact their decision to participate in upcoming elections. “Thoughtful leaders are asking for universal, no-excuse voting by mail and a majority of Texans agree with them. We will see how that plays out,” said Jeff Dalton of Democracy Toolbox. “We wanted to see how voters will react if the pandemic is still a concern and the state does not lift restrictions on voting by mail.”

Seventy-eight percent of respondents indicated they were very or somewhat concerned about being around other people because of COVID-19. Sixty-three percent responded that they were very or somewhat concerned about voting in person because of the outbreak.

Those who identify as Democrats and Independents appear to be more concerned about voting in person than Republicans. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats said they were very or somewhat concerned. Sixty-four percent of Independents indicated they were very or somewhat concerned. In contrast, 14 percent of Republicans said they were very concerned, 28 percent somewhat concerned, and 58 percent said they were not too concerned or not concerned at all.

Despite worries about being in proximity with others, most voters across the political spectrum seem highly motivated to cast a ballot, even if they are only eligible to vote in person, and even if COVID-19 is still a concern. Seventy-five percent of respondents indicated that they would still participate in July runoff elections, even if they are only eligible to vote in person. Eighty-eight percent said they still plan to vote in November 2020, even if they are only eligible to vote in person.

The survey also asked people if they think Texas, for health and safety reasons, should lift restrictions on who can vote by mail. Fifty-three percent said they would like restrictions removed. Thirty-eight percent indicated they do not want restrictions removed.

You can see the questions and the crosstabs here. The sample reported voting for Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 51-42 margin, which is right on the 2016 result. A couple of questions of interest: First, to the question “If the coronavirus outbreak is still a threat in November during the presidential election, and the only way you are eligible to vote is in person at a polling location, would you still plan to vote in person, or would you consider not voting this year?”, that 88% that said they would still vote in person broke down as 92% of Trump supporters (with 4% saying they wouldn’t vote and 4% saying they didn’t know), and 86% of Clinton suppoters (with 7% each saying “would not vote” and “don’t know”). Second, to the question “If you were eligible to vote by mail, what are the chances you will vote by mail because of coronavirus: will you definitely vote by mail, will you consider voting by mail, or do you think you will you still vote in person?”, 19% of Trump voters would definitely vote by mail, 17% would consider voting by mail, and 60% would still vote in person, while 69% of Clinton voters would definitely vote by mail, 18% would consider it, and 10% would still vote in person. You now have all the information you need to understand the current fight over expanded voting by mail.

Three other items of interest from the crosstabs. One is the complete lack of a gender gap in these numbers. Women and men were very similar in their approval of Trump and Abbott, their intent to vote for Biden or Trump, their support of vote by mail, their level of concern about coronavirus, and so on. Two, independents strongly disapproved of Trump (35 approve, 55 disapprove) and supported Biden (50-34), and supported expanded vote by mail (61-31). Finally, voters under the age of 65 strongly disapprove of Trump (27/59 for 18 to 29-year-olds, 43/51 for 30 to 44-year-olds, and 44/54 for 45 to 64-year-olds), and will vote for Biden (52-29, 46-45, and 53-45, respectively), while those 65 and up were exactly the reverse (62-35 approval, 59-36 voting).

Standard disclaimers: one poll, it’s early, subsamples can be weird, etc etc etc. I’ve added a Polling Texas 2020 sidebar widget to track these results. Enjoy!

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19 Responses to Democracy Toolbox (PPP): Biden 47, Trump 46

  1. Jeff N. says:

    Wow. The skies over Texas are a very bluish shade of purple this morning. Looks like it could be a beautiful day.

  2. David Fagan says:

    Did someone say Tara Read?

    But, if people want to say the same things about Miss. Read that Republicans brought up about Miss. Ford, please use quotation marks so you don’t technically plagiarize.

  3. Manny says:

    David did you not promise that you would go away?

    So all of a sudden you care about women? Save the BS for those others, that follow your cult leader, did you inhale Lysol this morning as recommended by your god?

    I have no idea what occurred, but I did hear Donald J. Trump say that he likes to just grab women by their pussy.

  4. David Fagan says:

    I really just care about the English language in this situation, it’s obvious these issues concerning women are only being used as political pawns on both sides, so at least people could use proper English. Please use proper punctuation is all is all I ask and avoid plagiarism.

    I am also looking forward to both major parties, or those who have pledged their allegiance to either, verbally abusing each other like rabid, foaming at the mouth dogs. So feel free to continue with any linguistic assault you feel you need to participate in, I understand. I understand it all stems from a feeling of having no power in these issues and, ultimately, things are not as we perceive them to be.

    No political party is worth rabies.

  5. brad says:


    Did someone say…yikes, the list is too long on women accused of being sexually assualted/raped by/abused by Trump?

    This list has not been updated for additional credible accusations since publication.

  6. Tom in Lazybrook says:

    I think those looking for some sort of heretonow unseen scandal bailing Trump out against Biden are gonna have very little to work with.

    Biden was VP for 8 years. Any story that had any legs from his past would have likely come out by now. In this case, you have a case of ‘he said, she said’ by a person credibly linked to Russia. If anything, it will remind suburban women about Trumps far more credible accusers. The extremist DNC haters on the far left succeptable to voting third party over this were unlikely to vote for any Democrat anyway. If anything, this is a weak sauce attempt to change the subject. Biden will say “I didnt do that”, place a woman on the ticket as VP, and that will be the end if it other than the hypocritical rants of Trump supporters and the opportunistic ones of Socialists.

    So theyll go with the “Joe is old” card. He is old…but he isnt musing about injesting bleach or shooting a tan booth light up peoples rectums.

    People know Joe, and largely like him. Thats a problem for Trump.

    Here in TX, I suspect the Dems are actually slightly behind, as undecideds usually tend to revert to their historical home in the end. But the Dems are probably close. If the Dems really do get 48+ percent in 2020, that probably means that the suburbs are even more Dem friendly than 2018. That means that the TX House is a tossup, and that between 5-8 Congressional seats are at serious risk.

  7. Bill Daniels says:


    Kavanaugh had been a federal judge in the public eye for years, and no one EVER accused him of being a rapist, yet when he was getting nominated for the Supreme Court, liars came out of the woodwork to accuse him, and since all women have a right to be heard, and to be believed, we had the kangaroo hearings, and even with those hearings, some of the claims were so specious the Dem senators didn’t want to have those women testify.

    Why does Tara Reade deserve any less consideration? Tara is a long time Democrat supporter, meaning she has built in credibility. Running for the presidency is a job interview. Where are the congressional hearings, televised live? There’s already plenty of women who have accused Joe of creepy behavior, including the female Secret Service agents who have to watch him swim naked at his mansion. There’s all kinds of video of Joe being handsy and sniffy with young girls and women

    All the people who absolutely believed and stood with Christine Ford…..where are you now? Why won’t you let Reade be heard? Why won’t you believe her? Joe has NOT requested that the FBI pour through his whole life to be investigated. That is the mark of someone who is guilty, remember? Where’s Mazzie Hirono? Where is Gillibrand? Where is Gloria Allred? Where are the champions of women? Did they stop believing?

    [insert Journey’s Don’t Stop Believing anthem here]

    But beyond that, Joe is polling OK because he’s out of sight, not making gaffes daily. Wait until he debates Trump. Biden has to look at prepared notes to accept an endorsement and have a conversation with Bernie. He came dangerously close to falling asleep during the ‘virtual town hall’ with Hillary, and Hillary carried the conversation. Trump will eviscerate Biden in a one on one; Biden clearly is in mental decline.

    And the most fun thing about the Reade allegation? Planned Parenthood came out and hit Joe on it.

    “At Planned Parenthood Action Fund, we believe women. We know how important it is that survivors be supported and listened to…..”

    I guess since there are virtually no survivors of Planned Parenthood, the few that make it out alive should be supported and listened to.

  8. Bill Daniels says:

    Meet Joe’s 7 other accusers:

    I learned from the Kavanaugh affair that more than one accuser definitely proves guilt. Of note is that these 8 women are none of the ones you have seen in the videos of Joe sniffing, grabbing, and caressing girls and women.

  9. Bill Daniels says:

    Oops, ‘nother one, from back in 2008:

    14 year old accuser.

  10. Manny says:

    Trump stated he would grab them by the pussy, Bill. No doubt about what he does, none.

    Biden is not running against Kavanaugh, that is just a rabbit hole that you and the rest of the racists and bigots like to use for misdirection.

  11. David Fagan says:

    Politicians take up positions and issues to champion, just to exploit them for their own means to get what the politicians want. Then when the same positions and issues do not work for the politician anymore, they toss the issue aside and minimize it’s importance.

    Hypocrisy- the practice of claiming to have moral standards or beliefs to which one’s own behavior does not conform; pretense.

  12. Manny says:

    David you are referencing politicians, Biden for example, when you are really attacking the people that go on offense, like Bill who defended K and called the women liars, and now wants everyone to treat women differently because a Democrat is being accused.

    Two people running for president, one has stated that he grabs women by the pussy. Listen to him say it.

  13. Bill Daniels says:

    Here’s Joey Two Fingers grabbing some unfortunate young woman by the chin. Look how she recoils in horror. And she’s a Biden supporter!

  14. Manny says:

    Bill gets his talking points every day from the billionaires like all good TEA Partiers/racists&bigots;

    The first link the Democrat resigned, wonder why Trump doesn’t resign?

    The second link is not sexual assault, is it Bill. However your leader, who recommends injection of Lysol into your body, does state that he likes to grab women by their pussy.

  15. Manny says:

    Bill, Trump has been accused of rape and attempted rape several times.

    Biden is running against Trump. Can you remember that Bill?

  16. David Fagan says:

    No political party is worth rabies.

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