I’ve got the canvass data for Harris County and will be working on it to bring you the usual analyses and insights. For whatever the reason, the voting precincts are presented differently than they were in the May/June elections, which has stopped me from doing my usual Excel magic on them. I’ve got an inquiry in with the Clerk’s office about that but hadn’t heard back before the holiday. When I’ve got that cleared up I’ll get on the numbers and we’ll begin to answer some questions about what happened.
In the meantime, I have a couple of high-level thoughts to tide us over.
– I’ve mentioned this before, but the first thing we need to do is figure out why so many 2020 voters didn’t show up in 2024. We basically know who these people are, so it’s a matter of asking them, listening to their answers, and compiling the data. I fully expect that a lot of what we’ll hear will be muddled, contradictory, confusing, and downright aggravating. It’s still our job to make sense of it and figure out how to get them next time.
– Doing that properly will take time and require a fair amount of resources. The money for that should come, at least in part, from Democratic incumbents (more on them in a minute) and anyone else associated with the party who has financial interests with the party. But as this is going to be a reach out and talk to people exercise, grassroots folks can and should participate as well. The first order of business is for someone to organize such an effort. Every candidate for TDP Chair and every current county party Chair should be working on something like this – it could be done statewide, at the local level, or both.
– Speaking of Democratic incumbents, we really need to demand more from them. Every incumbent needs to be asked what they did to help Democrats get out the vote this past year. Were they not on the ballot this year? Doesn’t matter. Do they serve in non-partisan offices like City Council or on school boards? Doesn’t matter. Were they unopposed or otherwise guaranteed to win thanks to their gerrymandered district? You better believe that’s no excuse.
There are Democratic incumbents who do their fair share and more, and that includes some of the judges who lost last month. We know who they are. There are others who do not, and again we have a pretty good idea of who they are. I am here to say that every one of us who votes in the Democratic primary needs to ask them that question, and to be prepared to support someone else if they don’t give a good answer. This has to matter to them at least as much as it matters to us.
This idea is not original to me – my friend and blogging colleague Neil Aquino has been on this beat for awhile. I’ve been asking a version of this question in my interviews during the primary season for the past couple of cycles. Plenty of the activists I talk to and hang out with have been on board for some time. There’s still plenty of room for the heat to be turned up.
– I’m not going to get into specific items for how to approach the next campaign, partly because we need to talk to our disengaged voters first and partly because I don’t feel very confident in my ability to see clearly right now. The one thing I will say is to avoid hot takes, do what you need to do to mourn and rest and recharge because we have a long battle ahead of ourselves, and don’t lose hope. We did this before, and as much as it sucks to have to do it again, we can do it again. Stay strong and carry on.
