Good. Keep it up.
National Democrats on Wednesday unveiled their most ambitious list of targets in the Texas House in years, adding a dozen districts, on top of three previously announced seats, to their battleground docket for the fall midterms.
Twelve of the Texas districts targeted by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, an arm of the national party that focuses on state legislatures, are currently held by Republicans. If Democrats were to flip all 12 — the same number they netted in 2018 — and hold onto all their current districts, they would be one seat shy of an even split in the lower chamber, which has been under GOP control since 2003.
Republicans currently hold 88 seats to Democrats’ 62 in the Texas House; 76 seats make a majority.
“As the Texas GOP rallies around Ken Paxton and an extreme slate of MAGA candidates up and down the ballot, we are ready to make big gains for Democrats in the Texas Legislature,” DLCC President Heather Williams said in a statement. “The DLCC is proud to partner with these target race candidates who are laser-focused on bringing down costs for Texans and gradually changing the face of power in Texas.”
The target list, first reported by The Texas Tribune, includes South Texas districts that were recently held by Democrats and perennial targets in the suburbs. It also includes a handful of dark horse seats that broke decisively for President Donald Trump and the Republican House candidate in 2024.
Beyond the dozen GOP districts they are targeting, Democrats also put three of their own seats on the battleground map: those held by Reps. Mihaela Plesa in Dallas and Eddie Morales Jr. in Eagle Pass, and retiring Rep. Bobby Guerra’s district in Mission.
Of the 15 districts, all but one voted for Trump in 2024 over Vice President Kamala Harris, with the narrowest margin for Trump coming in at 1.4 percentage points and the widest at 14.7 points. The top-of-the-ticket margins were more favorable for Democrats in 2018 across nearly every district, however, had the current lines been in place for Beto O’Rourke’s near-upset of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
The effort marks the first time national Democrats are investing resources in Texas legislative races since 2020, when Democrats vastly underperformed despite a well-financed effort to flip the Texas House. The party has lost ground since then, hampered by Republicans fortifying their majority during decennial redistricting in 2021, along with defeats in South Texas amid Latino voters’ shift to the right.
But after three straight cycles in the wilderness, Democrats are optimistic that 2026 might resemble the last Trump midterm election in 2018, due to factors like Trump’s falling approval ratings over rising everyday costs, backlash to the war in Iran and the baggage carried by Attorney General Ken Paxton atop the GOP ticket as the U.S. Senate nominee. Democratic state Sen. Taylor Rehmet’s special election upset in a dark red seat this year has also bolstered the party’s hopes.
“The DLCC has the strategy and Target Map to capitalize on the once-in-a-generation opportunity to build greater Democratic state legislative power in Texas and across the country,” the DLCC said in its announcement.
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Among the races on the DLCC’s target list are several that Democrats have sought to flip for years, including House Districts 108 and 112, suburban North Texas seats occupied by Reps. Morgan Meyer of University Park and Angie Chen Button of Garland, respectively, who have held off Democrats dating back to the 2018 wave.
Democrats also set their sights on a pair of San Antonio-based seats: District 121, where hard-right Rep. Marc LaHood defeated a more moderate Republican incumbent in the 2024 primary, and District 118, where Rep. John Lujan ceded reelection to run for Congress this cycle and the Democratic nominee from 2024, Kristian Carranza, is running again.
Trump carried each of those districts in 2024 by less than 6 percentage points, but each of the Republican lawmakers, aside from Lujan, outperformed the top of the ticket that year. In 2018, Cruz would have defeated O’Rourke by 5 points or less in the Meyer, Button and LaHood districts had they existed under the current lines; O’Rourke, meanwhile, would have carried Lujan’s district by 5 points that year.
In South Texas, discontent among Hispanic voters over the economy and the Trump administration’s deportation crackdown could help Democrats bring that bloc back to the party. There, Democrats are looking to topple Rep. Denise Villalobos, whose heavily Latino Corpus Christi-based district broke for Trump by just 1.4 percentage points in 2024 and would have elected O’Rourke by a whopping 16.5 points in 2018. Still, Villalobos won House District 34 by almost 11 points in 2024, running well ahead of Trump and flipping what had previously been a Democratic seat.
San Benito Rep. Janie Lopez, who flipped her district at the southern tip of Texas in 2022, is also in the DLCC’s sights, having run slightly behind Trump in 2024 while still winning by 10 points. Her majority-Latino seat, House District 37, would have gone for O’Rourke by 8 points in 2018.
And then there are the districts where a Democratic victory would mark a significant upset. Five of the seats targeted by the DLCC are ones where, in 2024, Trump won by 8 points or more and the Republican incumbent won reelection by over 11 points. Those include North Texas-based House Districts 61, 67 and 94 — respectively represented now by Reps. Keresa Richardson, Jeff Leach and retiring Tony Tinderholt — in addition to Round Rock’s District 52 and Houston’s District 138, represented by Reps. Caroline Harris Davila and Lacey Hull, respectively.
The original target list had only five seats on it, so it’s nice to see more aggression as the political climate has gotten more favorable. I’d say this is the year to go for broke, bearing in mind that if we don’t make major gains, including statewide, whatever we do this year is going to be wiped out by a hyper-aggressive partisan re-redistricting for 2028. Winning the House isn’t enough, we really have to win the Governor’s race, and probably more than that as well. If that feel daunting, I get it. It’s asking a lot from a party that hasn’t won anything statewide in thirty years. I’m just saying what the stakes are.
And the universe of potential flips is larger than what is presented here. Lone Star Left did a good job of rounding up some Republican intel, to identify even more seats that could be in range of the November wave. You still have to take into account things like candidate quality and fundraising, but just being a successful incumbent is not enough to avoid being swept under.
In 2018, there was a lot more focus on Congress, as there were multiple Democratic contenders who raised tons of money and made seemingly impregnable districts highly competitive. I feel like the State House was more under the radar that year, and I think the magnitude of the shift in that chamber – along with two State Senate seats, one SBOE seat, and dozens of judges – was big enough to make the Republicans less radical and dangerous, for one session. I think they’re more prepared for it this time, and there are fewer Congressional districts in play (not to mention only one competitive State Senate seat, and that one was already flipped in January), so after the Senate race this is where the action is. Against that, the conditions are worse for Republicans and better for Democrats.
In the short term, what I want to see is better fundraising from a wide range of Democratic candidates, more evidence of campaign coordination across locations and candidates, and as much visible energy as we can muster. We all want to catch the wave, but we all have a part in making it, too.
