
I do 30 day campaign finance reports for city of Houston elections and Harris County elections. I’ve never done them before for state candidates, partly because of my own capacity and partly because there’s rarely been anything worth looking for. This is a different year, so we’ll take a look. I did July finance reports for statewide candidates here and for legislative candidates of interest here. I’m going to combine them for this post, and will do Harris County candidates in another post. I also recommend you read Chris Tackett for a detailed look at the statewide reports, and Lone Star Left for toplines on legislative races. Now here we go.
Gina Hinojosa – Governor
Vikki Goodwin – Lite Guv
Nathan Johnson – Attorney General
Sarah Eckhardt – Comptroller
Clayton Tucker – Ag Commissioner
Benjamin Flores – Land Commissioner
Jon Rosenthal – Railroad Commissioner
Name Raised Spent Loan On Hand
======================================================
Hinojosa 13,256,631 12,117,024 387,000 4,082,077
Goodwin 1,160,974 697,542 40,000 643,078
Johnson 1,085,705 363,264 0 1,020,213
Eckhardt 504,225 345,881 0 335,135
Tucker 260,637 143,963 0 276,703
Flores 34,626 19,910 0 29,339
Rosenthal 488,415 114,481 0 378,434
I think in about every way we can imagine, Gina Hinojosa has exceeded our expectations. She’s now raised over $20 million, with some national money now coming her way. It’s nowhere close to Abbott money, but that’s a completely unrealistic metric, and now that he’s blown most of his cash without much to show for it they’re not too far apart in available funds now. I can’t say enough good things about the campaign she’s run. Great new ad, too.
If someone asks for a candidate they can contribute to where it will have an impact and isn’t Talarico or Hinojosa, point them to Vikki Goodwin. She’s as diligent as anyone else on the ticket, she makes a great case for herself, she’s not taking any of Dan Patrick’s bullshit, and she’s also had the lead in a couple of polls. I still think the THC issue is an under-the-radar needle-mover. She has enough money to do a little bit of advertising, a little more would sure help.
Nathan Johnson has enough money to do some advertising, and I hope he can get his name more out there because hoo boy is his opponent an under-discussed menace. It’s hard to rank them all by how terrible they are because they all contain multitudes, but Mayes Middleton is determined to stand out.
No one else is really positioned to do much in terms of spending, though we should give kudos to Jon Rosenthal, who outraised Bo French in this period. You could say that’s more about French, but if Rosenthal weren’t the excellent candidate he is I doubt he’d have reaped this much benefit from it.
Here are the legislative candidates of interest:
Sen. Taylor Rehmet – SD09
Stephanie Guerrero Saenz – HD34
Ozzie Ochoa – HD37
Chris Jimenez – HD52
Brittany Black – HD61
Jordan Wheatley – HD67
Katie O’Brien Duzan – HD94
Allison Mitchell – HD108
Zachary Herbert – HD112
Kristian Carranza – HD118
Zack Dunn – HD121
Stefanie Boyd – HD126
Michelle Williams – HD127
Sara McGee – HD132
Josh Wallenstein – HD133
Tyler Smith – HD138
Dist Name Raised Spent Loans On Hand
==============================================================
SD09 Rehmet 192,247 153,727 0 127,475
HD34 Guerrero Saenz 162,691 104,264 0 63,950
HD37 Ochoa 98,560 19,118 0 77,116
HD52 Jimenez 354,409 88,405 0 223,161
HD61 Black 57,190 60,259 35,035 82,066
HD67 Wheatley 46,856 6,538 750 41,637
HD94 O'Brien Duzan 277,660 130,970 0 138,979
HD108 Mitchell 130,396 32,902 0 102,242
HD112 Herbert 382,726 240,976 4,592 259,948
HD118 Carranza 444,586 157,219 0 383,613
HD121 Dunn 197,077 76,203 0 137,570
HD126 Boyd 23,719 19,498 0 15,508
HD127 Williams 12,458 15,410 0 390
HD132 McGee 36,178 14,772 0 34,081
HD133 Wallenstein 240,930 125,576 9,874 195,522
HD138 Smith 241,623 147,597 0 103,329
These are the DLCC candidates plus a few extra Harris County candidates added in. It’s hardly a comprehensive list of seats that could be in play, just a list of ones I’ve made note of.
I confess to being a little puzzled why some of the DLCC candidates didn’t raise more money than they did. I don’t know how those relationships work, I just know that if we’re serious about trying to flip the House, it’s probably going to take more than this. I’m not trying to point fingers, just to make sense of what I’m seeing.
I also think maybe some of the campaigns that have raised decent amount might have spent more by now. Being responsible with the cash you raise is of course a virtue, but you’ve got to get your message out, and having the cash only helps if you use it. I presume the state level messaging is covering for some of this, and by their nature these candidates can and should be focusing on the ground game, which won’t show up as much in the finance reports. Hopefully there’s some mail being sent and online ads happening as well.
I don’t have any specific comments beyond that. Several of the seats we flipped in 2018 came out of the blue (as it were), so in an environment like this campaign cash is less of a factor than it might be in other years. How active and engaged a campaign is, how well they work with other local groups, how good they are at social media, all these things matter. If you have any insights on these or other candidates to watch, leave a comment.











