Tag Archives: turnout

Finally, a real story about Taylor Rehmet

Posted on November 7, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Amazing what a little overperforming versus expectations can do. For months, the special election to succeed Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock in a red-leaning North Texas Senate seat revolved around the two Republicans in the race. But once the early voting … Continue reading →

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More on the November election

Posted on November 6, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a Chron story from the weekend that annoyed me a little. Early voting in Harris County wrapped up Friday with some of the lowest voting turnouts in recent years for Texas’ most populous county. but still higher than in … Continue reading →

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Election Day for November 2025 is tomorrow

Posted on November 3, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: The Harris County Clerk’s Office (HCCO) reminds registered voters that Election Day is Tuesday, November 4, 2025, the final opportunity to cast a ballot in this election. Races and Measures Include 17 proposed amendments to the Texas … Continue reading →

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Final November 2025 early voting: A lot of people voted early

Posted on November 2, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

And here’s a look at the final early voting totals. Final EV total 2025 = 212,104 Final EV total 2021 = 114,060 Final EV total 2017 = 60,974 A lot of people voted last week! Even I was a little … Continue reading →

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Early voting Day Five: A brief comparison

Posted on October 26, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Final EV total 2021 = 114,060 Final EV total 2017 = 60,974 Day Five EV total 2025 = 63,969 So less than halfway through early voting this year, we have exceeded the entire EV total from 2017, and are more … Continue reading →

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Early voting Day One: Looking back at 2017 and 2021

Posted on October 21, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

One day of early voting is in the books. I’m not going to follow the EV reports every day, as this is as off a year as we get in our election cycle, but I will check in a couple … Continue reading →

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The CD18 lineup

Posted on September 6, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Wednesday was also the filing deadline for the CD18 special election. Amanda Edwards has a photo of the SOS proclamation that includes a listing of the candidates and their parties. This Community Impact story also has the lineup and campaign … Continue reading →

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Yes, the omnibus voter suppression law suppressed voting by mail

Posted on June 1, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Cause, meet effect. Some county election officials across Texas say the number of people voting by mail has dropped since 2020, but they’re not sure why. New research suggests that the recent overhaul of state election laws could explain some … Continue reading →

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The turnout effect in those school board races

Posted on May 11, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

In yesterday’s post we talked about the possible voucher effect in the recent school board elections, which were by and large a rout of the wingnuts. That same Chron story offered one more explanation at the end. While some of … Continue reading →

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Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund analysis of the 2024 election

Posted on February 3, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: The Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund—a political action committee that is building and improving infrastructure to create conditions under which Democrats can win in Texas—released its preliminary breakdown of the 2024 election results. The data analysis, conducted in … Continue reading →

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A different perspective on turnout

Posted on December 10, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From the December 3 New York Times daily newsletter: If you’ve been reading post-election coverage, you’ve probably seen one of the big takeaways from the returns so far: In counties across the country, Kamala Harris won many fewer votes than … Continue reading →

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A couple of thoughts about moving forward

Posted on December 2, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve got the canvass data for Harris County and will be working on it to bring you the usual analyses and insights. For whatever the reason, the voting precincts are presented differently than they were in the May/June elections, which … Continue reading →

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My quadrennial warning to be careful with charts and percentages

Posted on November 25, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From City of Yes: The sun came up Wednesday morning, but for many, no doubt, our proverbial American “shining city on a hill” had lost some of its luster. While the presidential election results have disappointed many city dwellers, the … Continue reading →

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Republicans performed more or less at 2020 levels in Harris County

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Obviously, the Republicans did well in Harris County this year, better than I expected for sure. They won some judicial races – they’re probably kicking themselves for not contesting more of them – and in general came a lot closer … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: In my neighborhood

Posted on November 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I won’t have access to a Harris County canvass for a couple of weeks, and I may or may not do some countywide comparisons, but I did wonder about how the vote went in my neighborhood. I do a lot … Continue reading →

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Just a couple of thoughts because I’m not ready for more yet

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

There’s an older gentleman who rides his bike around the neighborhood. I see him pretty regularly when I’m out walking the dog. We always wave hello as we pass by. On Sunday he pulled his bike over to the curb … Continue reading →

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A brief list of things I’ll be watching for today

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

In no particular order… 1. I don’t expect Democrats to win statewide in Texas. It would be great, it would do a world of good, but I’d be setting myself up for disappointment if I start there. What I want … Continue reading →

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Final November 2024 early voting: Definitely short

Posted on November 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting is done, and I have to say, we didn’t get to where I expected we would: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting are Mail = 57,059 In Person = 1,175,901 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Eleven: One more day

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Hard to believe, it seems like this election has been going on since the late 90s, but we have one day of early voting to go. Your early voting results through Thursday, Day Eleven: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Ten: Slower so far than I expected

Posted on October 31, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’ve got two days of EV remaining. Your early voting results through Wednesday, Day Ten: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting are Mail = 51,477 In Person = 961,273 Total = 1,012,750 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Eight: Second Monday

Posted on October 29, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’re in the second and final week of early voting. There are now four days of EV remaining. Your early voting results through Monday, Day Eight: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Seven: The weekend

Posted on October 28, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Just going to get right into it here. Your early voting results through Sunday, Day Seven: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after seven days of early voting are Mail = 44,805 In Person = 686,937 Total = … Continue reading →

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Comparing early voting apples to apples

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron’s writeup of the first five days of early voting is an incomplete picture. Is turnout up or down in Texas in the 2024 election? It depends on how you look at it. Since early voting began Monday, more … Continue reading →

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UTSA poll for October: A little weird

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Not really sure how to explain this other than to say polls be weird sometimes. A new survey from UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research indicated that in bright blue San Antonio, support has been growing for Democrat Colin Allred in his uphill … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Five: The average so far

Posted on October 26, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’re at the end of the first week of early voting – I was able to wait for the Day Five report before writing this, so I’m caught up for now. It was a very busy week. Let’s take a … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Three: Let’s not overanalyze this

Posted on October 25, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Lone Star Left caught my eye on Wednesday as they looked at the statewide early voting data so far. All day, I waited for a full update from the Secretary of State (SoS) regarding the Day 1 early voter turnout. … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Two: On average

Posted on October 24, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Reading this story gave me an idea for how to talk about early voting so far compared to 2020. The first day of early voting for El Paso County’s general election drew 31% fewer voters than the record-setting 2020 race. … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day One: Where are the mail ballots?

Posted on October 23, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

As I said yesterday, the Day One early voting report came in a little too late on Monday night for me to queue this up for Tuesday. It’s also the case that comparing this year to 2020 is not going … Continue reading →

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Make that 18.6 million registered voters

Posted on October 22, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

That’s a lot. Texas added nearly 200,000 voters to its rolls in the two weeks before the deadline to register, according to state data, giving the state a record-breaking 18.6 million voters going into this year’s election. Since 2016, when … Continue reading →

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On longshot candidates

Posted on October 14, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks at candidates running in districts they are highly unlikely to win. I have a few thoughts. In the 2022 election, a Houston Chronicle analysis found only about 5% of Texans lived in districts with competitive races for … Continue reading →

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Eighteen million registered voters

Posted on October 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Number go up. Texas has been one of the nation’s fastest-growing states since the 1970s, but its voter rolls have at times been stagnant. From 2000 to 2012, the number of registered voters grew by 1.2 million. In only the … Continue reading →

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Is the Texas Republican Party actually worried?

Posted on September 29, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I hope so. The Republican Party of Texas has vowed a “major investment” in South Texas legislative races amid ongoing criticism from county-level leaders over its fundraising and voter outreach efforts. On Monday, the party announced a commitment to knock … Continue reading →

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Scott and McCrutcheon win HCAD runoffs

Posted on June 16, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Not much to say, you can see the live results. There were 12,479 total mail ballots, so another 1,436 were received after Tuesday. A bit more than 11K votes had been counted as of 10 PM and two thirds of … Continue reading →

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HCAD Runoff Day is today

Posted on June 15, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth announced that the June 15 Uniform Runoff Election Day is this Saturday. There are 131 Election Day vote centers open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. across Harris County. “A runoff election … Continue reading →

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