Tag Archives: turnout

Was the District C special election an inflection point?

Posted on April 7, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting hypothesis from Chron editorial page honcho Evan Mintz. Don’t be fooled by the fact that the race is going to a runoff — Saturday’s special election for City Council District C was a blowout. Houston progressives were the … Continue reading →

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It will be Panzarella versus Hellyar in District C

Posted on April 5, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

The headline of the Chron story on the District C election results amuses me: “Race for Houston’s District C council seat appears headed to runoff; Panzarella, Hellyar lead”. I mean, of course it’s going to a runoff. There were seven … Continue reading →

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Today is District C special election day

Posted on April 4, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox. [Today] is Election Day for the City of Houston Special Election to fill the vacant District C City Council seat. The elected candidate will serve the remainder of former Council Member Abbie Kamin’s term through January 1, … Continue reading →

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District C turnout is fine

Posted on April 1, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Haven’t I already answered this question? Few voters have cast ballots in an ongoing Houston City Council special election despite the area consistently recording the highest turnout of the city’s 11 districts in past elections. As of Sunday night, only … Continue reading →

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A brief check in on District C

Posted on March 25, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

As of Tuesday, we are officially halfway through early voting for the Houston City Council District C special election. There have been 2,937 votes cast so far – 778 by mail, 2,159 in person. Except for Sunday and Monday, every … Continue reading →

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Not-quite-final Derek Ryan report

Posted on March 23, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Turnout The numbers posted on the Secretary of State show that 2,165,744 people voted in the Republican Primary and 2,311,826 people voted in the Democratic Primary. Yes, more people voted in the Democratic Primary, 146,082 more to … Continue reading →

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What kind of turnout should we expect in District C?

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

You know there’s a special election going on for Houston City Council District C, right? It’s in the middle of our stretch of many months with voting of some kind going on. What is a reasonable expectation for how many … Continue reading →

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The “number of primary votes by Congressional district” metric

Posted on March 11, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Noting this for the record. With the possible exception of U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico, the most relieved Democrats after Tuesday’s primary might be U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of South Texas. Their relief has less to do … Continue reading →

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A followup on turnout and early voting preference

Posted on March 9, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Just a couple of followup items for things we discussed during early voting, now that we have more complete data. The first was about how much of the vote would be cast early, and whether Republicans were waiting until Election … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts on the 2026 primaries

Posted on March 5, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

We don’t have full turnout numbers yet, but as of Wednesday some 363,826 votes were cast in the Democratic primary for Senate in Harris County, while there were 197,389 votes cast on the Republican side. About 140K votes were cast … Continue reading →

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A statewide comparison

Posted on March 2, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

I mentioned this yesterday, so here it is. I decided to look at the most recent early voting turnout numbers I could find for the counties, and then compare them to the final turnout numbers from the 2022 election. I’ll … Continue reading →

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A history of early voting turnout in the primaries

Posted on March 1, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting is over. We’ve already discussed the final EV totals, but there was something of note that I didn’t mention yesterday that I want to comment on today: Year Mail Early Total ===================================== 2018 Dem 22,695 70,152 92,847 2018 … Continue reading →

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Final 2026 early voting report: That was something

Posted on February 28, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday, the last day for early voting, was huge: Over 77K votes cast, with 51K of them being on the Democratic side. I didn’t get the report until almost midnight last night, and so didn’t finish this post until this … Continue reading →

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2026 primary early voting Day Ten: One more day to go

Posted on February 27, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

One more time from Derek Ryan. Turnout Comparison Based on the data I have, here is where things stand through Wednesday: -856,191 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.6% of all registered voters). The Secretary of State is reporting … Continue reading →

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2026 primary early voting Day Nine: Keep on keeping on

Posted on February 26, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s another Derek Ryan update. Turnout Comparison Based on the data I have, here is where things stand: -747,153 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.0% of all registered voters). -865,385 people have voted in the Democratic Primary (4.6% … Continue reading →

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2026 primary early voting Day Eight: Beyond the point of comparison

Posted on February 25, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

We are eight days into early voting, past both of the Mondays that made daily comparisons to past elections a challenge, and you know what? It doesn’t matter anymore, because the early vote total in Harris County so far is … Continue reading →

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More deep dives on primary data

Posted on February 24, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

From Levi Asher: Everyone is talking about the massive early voting numbers in the Texas Democratic primary. Through Day 5, Harris County has already seen 76,555 Democratic ballots cast, more than double where we were at this point in 2024. … Continue reading →

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A closer look at the EV data so far

Posted on February 22, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Derek Ryan is back with his analysis of the three-day EV numbers. Through the first three days of early voting (Tues – Thurs), I have been able to identify 303,095 people who have voted in the Republican Primary (1.6% turnout) … Continue reading →

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2026 primary early voting Day Three: With additional miscellany

Posted on February 20, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

We’ll start with the numbers and then go on to the items of interest. Here are the final daily EV reports for the 2022 and 2018 primaries. Here’s the Day Three EV report, and here are the numbers: Year Mail … Continue reading →

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An erratic look at Day One turnout in a few counties

Posted on February 19, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

I’d love to give you a full-ish look at Day One primary turnout around the state, but that data is harder to find than you might think. The current SOS interface for this is clunky and incomplete. You can be … Continue reading →

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2026 primary early voting Day One: And we’re off

Posted on February 18, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

At long last, we are voting for the 2026 primaries. I will do my thing with the numbers as we go. Let’s recap where we are and what we’re doing. Here are the final daily EV reports for the 2022 … Continue reading →

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A few words about CD18 turnout

Posted on February 13, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

I feel I need to say something about this, which ran just before the CD18 runoff. Early-voting turnout in the runoff election for Texas’ 18th Congressional District is under 4% so far, highlighting the challenges in voter participation as the district … Continue reading →

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A Taylor Rehmet check-in

Posted on January 16, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

I’m still not sure what to expect in this runoff. Even some of his most passionate supporters were surprised by the number of votes Democrat Taylor Rehmet received in the November special election for Texas Senate District 9. His competitors, … Continue reading →

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The Republican non-turnout problem

Posted on January 11, 2026 by Charles Kuffner

Simon Rosenberg flags something of interest, about how MAGA voters are unhappy with the way things are going. Of course this represents an extraordinary betrayal of what the flim-flam confidence man promised the American people when he ran last year. … Continue reading →

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San Antonio will move its elections to November

Posted on December 22, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Good move. San Antonians will cast ballots for municipal elections in November of odd-numbered years — instead of May — beginning in 2029 after a fractured City Council approved the calendar change, a move championed by Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones. … Continue reading →

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Salinas, Jefferson Patterson headed to victory

Posted on December 14, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

As of 10:26 last night, Alejandra Salinas was leading Dwight Boykins in Harris County by about 5,500 votes. You can see the current unofficial results from Harris County here and the final results from Fort Bend County here. Boykins dominated … Continue reading →

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Today is Runoff Day

Posted on December 13, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: The Harris County Clerk’s Office reminds registered voters that tomorrow is Election Day for the December 13, 2025, Joint Runoff Elections. This is your final opportunity to make your voice heard and help decide the outcomes in … Continue reading →

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Final December runoff early voting: Is anger the key?

Posted on December 10, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting take on the Houston City Council At Large #4 runoff, for which early voting ended yesterday. Salinas ran on a decidedly progressive platform for voters dissatisfied with status quo politics — advocating for legal action to fight against … Continue reading →

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Runoff early voting Day One: Getting started

Posted on December 2, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

For a variety of reasons, I probably won’t follow the daily EV reports for the runoff closely, but I will at least keep an eye on them. First, though, this bit from the Chron story on the start of early … Continue reading →

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San Antonio considers moving its elections to November

Posted on November 29, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

They should! San Antonio Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones has asked City Council to move the city’s municipal elections from May to November, a move state lawmakers set the stage for earlier this year. The change would save taxpayers $1 million, … Continue reading →

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Another story about Taylor Rehmet

Posted on November 9, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

This one has more numbers in it. Despite the district’s solid-red reputation, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the most votes in a Tuesday special election for vacant Senate District 9. The district, represented by Kelly Hancock since 2013, encompasses northern Tarrant … Continue reading →

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A bit more election miscellany

Posted on November 8, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Pondering the County Attorney situation. Despite technically resigning, [Harris County Attorney Christian] Menefee has remained the acting county attorney throughout the campaign period. It’s not clear if he will remain in the position as he prepares to campaign for a … Continue reading →

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Finally, a real story about Taylor Rehmet

Posted on November 7, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Amazing what a little overperforming versus expectations can do. For months, the special election to succeed Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock in a red-leaning North Texas Senate seat revolved around the two Republicans in the race. But once the early voting … Continue reading →

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More on the November election

Posted on November 6, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a Chron story from the weekend that annoyed me a little. Early voting in Harris County wrapped up Friday with some of the lowest voting turnouts in recent years for Texas’ most populous county. but still higher than in … Continue reading →

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