Tag Archives: turnout

The SD15 special election is now a two candidate race

From Campos. Commentary said this after the Democratic Party Primary about three and a half weeks ago: “For what it is worth, according to the Texas Secretary of State website, Michelle Bonton, Molly Cook, State Rep. Jarvis Johnson, and Todd … Continue reading

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Initial thoughts on the 2024 primary

Some opening considerations as we peruse the final unofficial voting data. Before you read my words, go check out Stace, Campos, Reform Austin, and the Texas Signal. Here we go: – Final turnout in Harris County was 176,396 for Dems … Continue reading

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Primary 2024 results: Democratic headlines

It’s going to be a late night and I have a couple of long days ahead of me, so I’m going to do some quick summaries based on what I now know, and will come back later to fill the … Continue reading

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Today is Primary Day 2024

From the inbox: Election Day for the first-ever Joint Primary Elections in Harris County is tomorrow, March 5. More than 500 vote centers will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for voters to cast their ballots. Voters can … Continue reading

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One more look at primary turnout

Here’s the Derek Ryan report on early voting in the primaries, which sent me off into a rabbit hole yesterday. Early voting is over. (Thank goodness! Early voting is always the busiest point of the entire two-year election cycle for … Continue reading

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Final 2024 Primary Early Voting totals

Off we go to Primary Day. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 7,735 30,142 37,877 2016 13,034 72,782 85,816 2020 22,785 116,748 139,533 2024 14,661 87,591 102,252 2012 17,734 60,347 78,081 2016 20,780 110,365 131,145 2020 22,801 82,108 104,909 2024 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Ten: Down to the wire

Here we go, the penultimate day and the day where we really see the uptick in early voting: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 7,458 23,080 30,538 2016 12,202 53,302 65,504 2020 21,658 82,365 104,023 2024 14,002 65,756 79,758 2012 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Nine: Two more to go

A slight uptick yesterday in early voting, with the two big days to come. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,719 19,324 22,752 2016 11,367 45,552 56,919 2020 19,400 66,322 85,722 2024 12,448 55,456 67,904 2012 15,239 39,482 54,721 2016 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Eight: That was Tuesday

We are at the point of the early voting calendar where I begin to run out of clever intros. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,381 16,371 22,752 2016 10,970 34,419 45,389 2020 18,503 54,325 72,728 2024 10,440 47,185 57,625 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Seven: Week 2 begins

Week Two is where the action really begins, though usually you don’t see the first hint of it until Wednesday. Let’s check the board: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,295 13,763 18,058 2016 10,180 28,367 38,547 2020 16,651 44,349 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Six: On to week 2

Five more days of early voting to go. Here’s where we are after the weekend: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,055 11,580 17,635 2016 8,850 23,384 32,234 2020 15,101 36,719 51,820 2024 7,643 33,276 40,919 2012 12,915 24,000 36,915 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Four: Heading into the weekend

One sort-of full week of early voting down, seven more days to go. Let’s check the board: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,055 8,242 14,297 2016 8,850 14,554 23,404 2020 15,101 25,260 40,361 2024 6,663 24,646 31,309 2012 12,915 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Three: Settling in

Sorry I didn’t get to this yesterday. Too damn much news. Here we go. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 5,875 6,317 12,192 2016 8,167 10,231 18,398 2020 13,793 17,735 31,528 2024 4,447 17,897 22,344 2012 12,450 13,464 25,914 2016 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day One: And we’re off

It’s Early Voting time, everyone’s favorite time of the year. I’m just going to get right into it, I’m sure there will be stories to note later but for right here and right now, it’s just the numbers. Here are … Continue reading

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Any early thoughts about what primary turnout might look like?

Why yes I do, thanks for asking. The early indicators are that we are in for lower than usual turnout. With President Joe Biden facing only token opposition in the Democratic primary and Trump pulling away on the GOP side, … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: At Large #5

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 At Large #4 Returning to this as promised for the November elections. I will be doing the same for the runoffs shortly, … Continue reading

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The recent history of runoff early voting

I brought this up in yesterday’s post, so let’s take that look at how much of the runoff vote has been cast early in the last few Mayoral elections. Year Early E-Day Total EV % ======================================= 2003 77,984 138,804 216,788 … Continue reading

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2023 final runoff Early Voting totals

Early voting has ended. Early takes are flowing in. As of Tuesday night, nearly 132,000 votes – 120,155 in-person ballots and 11,732 mail ballots – had been recorded in Harris County, according to the Harris County Clerk’s Office. That compares … Continue reading

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2023 runoff early voting: With two days to go

I changed up the schedule of posting early voting daily totals because I realized that the EV periods for the three years I’m comparing are all different, which makes the comparisons a little screwy. At this point in all three … Continue reading

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2023 runoff early voting Day Two totals

Let’s get to it: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 20,233 22,964 43,197 2019 6,024 29,180 35,204 2023 946 28,113 29,059 Again, the early in person totals look normal. The mail, I have no idea. I just now noticed that … Continue reading

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2023 runoff early voting Day One totals

Early voting for the 2023 runoff elections is underway. Here’s the news you can use from Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudpseth: As early voting begins for the December 9 Joint Runoff Election, Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth urges voters to … Continue reading

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Time for another chat about voter registration and turnout

Let’s do it. Texas Democrats came away from Beto O’Rourke’s surprisingly narrow 2018 defeat to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with a simple plan: register to vote the millions of nonvoting Texans that demographics suggest lean Democrat and electoral victories will … Continue reading

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On to the runoff

Here we go. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is trying to do something no Houston mayor has done in 46 years: flip the result between a general election and a runoff. Jim McConn last achieved the feat in 1977, erasing a … Continue reading

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My initial thoughts on the 2023 election

Suffice it to say I was off base on turnout. I thought we would be on track to top the turnout of the 2003 Mayor’s race, but in the end we fell short of 2015’s level. I’d have lost quite … Continue reading

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Today is Election Day 2023

From the inbox: The Harris County Clerk’s Office reminds citizens that [today] is Election Day. 701 vote centers will be open across Harris County from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and registered voters can cast their ballots at a location … Continue reading

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A few thoughts about Tuesday turnout

We now know how many early votes were cast in Harris County for the November 2023 election. I’m now going to run through a few scenarios to show what the range of possibility is for overall final turnout. None of … Continue reading

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November 2023 Final EV totals: Records successfully broken

We had a big last day in early voting on Friday, as you can see below: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 29,859 164,104 193,963 2019 15,304 137,460 152,764 2023 14,925 224,400 239,325 The final EV totals from 2015 are … Continue reading

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November 2023 Day Eleven EV totals: About to break records

With one day to go in early voting, we are about to set a record. Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 27,952 128,611 156,563 2019 14,280 103,945 118,225 2023 14,034 171,673 185,707 The final EV totals from 2015 are here … Continue reading

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November 2023 Day Nine EV totals: Just the numbers

Yesterday was Halloween, I’m still a little strung out from handing out Trick or Treat loot, so here’s just the updated numbers: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 24,768 89,599 114,367 2019 11,356 76,613 87,989 2023 10,274 123,609 133,883 The … Continue reading

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November 2023 Day Eight EV totals: You can’t out-nerd me

This Chron story about early voting through Sunday made me grind my teeth. One week in, early voting turnout has surpassed the levels seen in the last two Houston mayoral elections — but not overwhelmingly so — perhaps a surprise … Continue reading

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November 2023 Day Seven EV totals: My one crazy theory

We are officially one week into early voting for the November 2023 election. Here’s how it’s been going in Harris County so far: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 21,141 61,008 82,149 2019 6,799 55,937 62,736 2023 9,284 91,676 100,960 … Continue reading

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Spotlight on the Harris County Clerk

But first, a few words about early voting so far. Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth reports that voters have cast more than 54.4K in-person ballots during the first four days of Early Voting for the November 7 Joint General & … Continue reading

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November 2023 Day Three EV totals: All in person

We’re at the first Friday of early voting for the November 2023 election, and a pattern is beginning to emerge. This is the data through Day Three: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 18,196 27,596 45,792 2019 6,050 26,206 32,256 … Continue reading

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November 2023 Day One EV totals: You’ve got no mail

It’s that time you’ve been waiting for, so here’s what you want: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 14,240 8,891 23,131 2019 5,407 7,973 13,380 2023 3,289 12,740 16,029 The final EV totals from 2015 are here and the final … Continue reading

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