Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund analysis of the 2024 election

Posted on February 3, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: The Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund—a political action committee that is building and improving infrastructure to create conditions under which Democrats can win in Texas—released its preliminary breakdown of the 2024 election results. The data analysis, conducted in … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: County races 2024 part 2

Posted on January 21, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: President Senate Railroad Commissioner District Attorney and County Attorney Last time we looked at the low-performing countywide races for Democrats. This time it’s the three races where Dems did the best. The starting place is exactly where you’d expect … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: County races 2024 part 1

Posted on January 13, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: President Senate Railroad Commissioner I’m going to break up the countywide race analyses into two posts, to make my life a little easier. I’m also going to reduce the overall amount of information I’m putting in them, to make … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis 2024: Railroad Commissioner

Posted on January 6, 2025 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: President Senate Dist Craddick Culbert Lib Grn ========================================= CD02 99,112 65,117 3,921 3,996 CD07 66,167 95,853 3,751 5,025 CD08 71,653 66,412 3,176 5,058 CD09 31,772 90,778 2,260 4,700 CD18 61,743 139,540 5,594 8,483 CD22 16,983 10,714 706 758 CD29 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Senate 2024

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: President The US Senate race between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz was easily the best Democratic result, the race most like 2020, with Allred winning by over 11 points and 175K votes. The precinct numbers reflect this margin of … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: President 2024

Posted on December 30, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I know you’ve been waiting for this, and now here it is, the 2024 precinct data for Harris County. We’ll start at the top, with the Presidential race. Dist Trump Harris Lib Grn ========================================= CD02 101,141 73,399 1,112 1,027 CD07 … Continue reading →

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Can HISD pass the next bond?

Posted on November 19, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

It depends. After Houston ISD’s historic bond failure in November, several parents, teachers and community members are wondering if or when the state’s largest school district will go back to voters to place another measure on the ballot. […] Some … Continue reading →

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Judicial undervotes 2024

Posted on November 18, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

One brief comment on this Houston Landing story about undervoting, and then I will have some numbers for you. Tens of thousands of Harris County residents stopped voting well short of the end of their Nov. 5 ballots, skipping dozens … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 13 Comments

Republicans performed more or less at 2020 levels in Harris County

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Obviously, the Republicans did well in Harris County this year, better than I expected for sure. They won some judicial races – they’re probably kicking themselves for not contesting more of them – and in general came a lot closer … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: In my neighborhood

Posted on November 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I won’t have access to a Harris County canvass for a couple of weeks, and I may or may not do some countywide comparisons, but I did wonder about how the vote went in my neighborhood. I do a lot … Continue reading →

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A look at recent trends in early, mail, and Election Day voting

Posted on June 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve noted before how I completely overestimated Election Day voting totals in the November/December 2023 and March 2024 races, based on recent past data from similar elections. I’ve tentatively concluded that even for races where a lot of Election Day … Continue reading →

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Some further special election stuff

Posted on May 7, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We begin with this from the inbox. The Harris County Clerk’s Office posted the unofficial May 4 Uniform and Special Elections results on the Harris Votes website early Sunday morning, with 56,612 ballots cast in total. About 2% of Harris … Continue reading →

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The SD15 effect on the HCAD elections

Posted on May 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We have had two elections going on these past weeks. I’ve done my best to bring attention to the three HCAD elections, but they have gone on alongside the special election in SD15. While the stakes in that one are … Continue reading →

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Nikki Haley’s best counties

Posted on March 13, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Both Stace and I have noted the handful of counties in which President Biden underperformed in the primary election. That led me to wonder what the analogous situation was like on the Republican side. Where did Nikki Haley overperform her … Continue reading →

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There’s only one way forward after this primary

Posted on March 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

The worst people you know had a very good week last week. It’s likely to get better for them after the runoffs. These headlines capture the essence of it: ‘Disastrous’: A shaken Texas House prepares for rightward shift after record … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2023 Controller’s runoff

Posted on January 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayoral runoff The City Controller runoff also wasn’t particularly close, as Chris Hollins bested many (many, many, many) time candidate Orlando Sanchez by 17 points. There are some interesting things to point out here though, so let’s get to … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2023 Mayoral runoff

Posted on January 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

You might want to hide your children’s eyes, these numbers are quite ugly if you were a Sheila Jackson Lee supporter: Dist Whitmire J Lee ======================= A 12,578 3,807 B 2,625 11,199 C 29,030 8,769 D 5,012 14,150 E 20,469 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: City Props A and B

Posted on December 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 At Large #4 At Large #5 Finishing up with the two citywide ballot propositions. The first one, Prop A, established that three … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: At Large #5

Posted on December 19, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 At Large #4 Returning to this as promised for the November elections. I will be doing the same for the runoffs shortly, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: At Large #4

Posted on December 6, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 After that nine-candidate pileup in AL3, At Large #4 and its four contenders is a much more sedate affair, and a lot … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: At Large #3

Posted on December 5, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 had the largest non-Mayoral field on the ballot, with nine candidates. Five candidates finished with at least ten percent of the vote, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: At Large #2

Posted on December 4, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 Dist Davis Hellyar Coryat Bess Holly Obes ========================================================== A 5,494 3,854 1,580 2,112 1,830 1,184 B 5,834 800 1,286 5,148 658 1,211 C 7,921 13,067 2,477 4,679 4,923 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #1

Posted on December 3, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum We have four runoffs in the At Large races, and they’re all basically D versus R affairs. The HCDP and the Harris County GOP have taken their sides. Let’s look at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2023 Harris Health proposition

Posted on December 2, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race The nice thing about analyzing Harris County Proposition A is that I can use the precinct/district guide I got and used for the 2022 election, which is nice and clean and gives me totals that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2023 Controller’s race

Posted on November 30, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race I got in a groove and took what I learned from mucking around with the Mayor’s race data and was able to clean up the same for the Controller’s race in relatively short order. As you’ll see, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2023 Mayor’s race

Posted on November 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

The November 2023 election has been officially canvassed and certified, and that means that there’s precinct data available for me to analyze. I’ve been working on it over the weekend, and I will tell you it’s a bit more of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Precinct analysis: State Senate and SBOE 2022

Posted on April 25, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 A comparison with 2012 Congress 2022 As with Congress there won’t be much to see here. The fewer the districts, the more precise the redistricting can be. Here’s the State Senate: Dist Abbott Abb% Beto Beto% … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Congress 2022

Posted on April 4, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 A comparison with 2012 This will be short and bland, as there ain’t many competitive Congressional districts by any metric. Dist Abbott Abb% Beto Beto% =================================== 28 79,478 46.4% 88,550 51.7% 34 57,793 42.7% 75,741 55.9% … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Looking back at the 2012 landscape

Posted on March 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 We’ve had our first look at the way the new State House districts performed, and while we can expect the 2024 election to be a little different, it’s clear at this time that there aren’t many … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State House 2022

Posted on March 20, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We have data. Texas Democrats and Republicans are beginning to gear up for a presidential election cycle in which opportunities to flip seats for Congress and the Legislature appear limited. It’s a natural outcome after Republicans redrew legislative and congressional … Continue reading →

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What will it take to keep those ten appellate court benches we won in 2018?

Posted on February 21, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

As you may recall, Democrats won a ton of Appellate Court races in 2018. Ten of them, in fact, five each on the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals, the first such victories since winning a lone bench in 2008. … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The different kinds of courts

Posted on January 30, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races Not as good statewide races County executive offices Houston/not Houston I’ve spent a lot of time and space on this blog talking about judicial races and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Inside and out of the city

Posted on January 17, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Most years we don’t get the data to differentiate between votes cast by residents of Houston and votes cast by Harris County non-Houston residents. There needs to be a citywide referendum of the ballot in order to get at this … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: County executive offices

Posted on January 9, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races Not as good statewide races County races appear towards the bottom of the ballot, after all of the federal and state races. With the exception of … Continue reading →

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