Tag Archives: CD17

January 2021 campaign finance reports: Congress

Should have done this a long time ago, just to close the books on the 2020 election cycle, but for a variety of reasons I didn’t. With the forthcoming special election in CD06, I now have a reason to care … Continue reading

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October 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

This is it, the last quarterly finance report roundup for the cycle. It’s been quite the time, hasn’t it? Let’s do this and see where we are as voting continues. The January 2019 roundup is here, which closed out the … Continue reading

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CD17 poll: Sessions 45, Kennedy 42

Another mind-blowing poll result, in a district that no one has seen as competitive. In a district where 56 percent of voters supported President Donald Trump in 2016, Democratic congressional candidate Rick Kennedy is in a strong position to challenge … Continue reading

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Once again with female Congressional candidates

This is another post that was drafted in the Before Times, specifically right after the March primary. I went through the runoffs and assessed all of the races that could or would contain a female candidate or incumbent against a … Continue reading

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A slightly less rosy view of Democratic prospects

Here’s the latest race ratings from Texas Elects: Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. … Continue reading

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July 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Congratulations, everyone. Not only have we made it to the other side of another quarterly reporting period, we have also successfully navigated the primary runoffs. My next quarterly finance report post for Congress will thus be shorter, as this is … Continue reading

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2020 primary runoff results: Congress

I’m going to bullet point these just for simplicity. There will be news stories to look at later. CD03 Dem: Lulu Seikaly cruised to an easy win here. She was just over 60% at around 10 PM, with some Election … Continue reading

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April 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Hey, remember politics? You know, races and finance reports and stuff like that? Yeah, it’s still happening, weird as that may seem right now. As we are well into April, the Q1 Congressional finance reports for 2020 are in, and … Continue reading

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Does getting to 40% make you likely to win the runoff?

I was talking with some fellow political nerds last week, and one of the topics was the forthcoming runoffs. As is usually the case, this year we have some runoffs between candidates who finished fairly close together in round one, … Continue reading

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Runoff roundup

Here, as best as I can determine, are the runoffs of interest for May: US Senate – MJ Hegar versus Royce West CD02 – Sima Ladjevardian versus Elisa Cardnell CD03 – Lulu Seikaly versus Sean McCaffity CD10 – Mike Siegel … Continue reading

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2020 primary results: Senate and Congress

In the US Senate primary, MJ Heger is clearly headed to the runoff. It’s less clear who’s in second place, in part because the statewide results are so out of date on both the Trib and SOS pages. As of … Continue reading

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January 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

The big ones for this cycle the Q4 2019 Congressional finance reports. For the last time, we have new candidates joining the list, and a couple of folks dropping out. Let’s do the thing and see where we are going … Continue reading

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Chron overview of HD134

Is this the year Sarah Davis loses? That’s the question. The March primaries are weeks away, but the first question at a recent forum for the three Democrats running to unseat state Rep. Sarah Davis centered on November: “How do … Continue reading

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After-deadline filing review: Congress

Let’s continue our walk through the filings. I’m going to take a look at some of the interesting Congressional races, skipping over the ones we just looked at. CD01: It’s still not remotely competitive, but I once again want to … Continue reading

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Our first Congressional race ratings

From Politico, here’s the early view of the state of Texas’ Congressional races in 2020. Lean Dem CD23 (Open, R) CD32 (Allred, D) Tossup CD07 (Fletcher, D) CD22 (Open, R) CD24 (Open, R) Lean GOP CD02 (Crenshaw, R) CD10 (McCaul, … Continue reading

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Filing period preview: Congress

So even though we still have the 2019 runoffs to settle, the 2020 election is officially upon us. I say this because the filing period for 2020 candidates began on Saturday the 9th, closing on December 9. I expect there … Continue reading

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October 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Moving on to the Q3 FEC reports, we again have new candidates making their appearance. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle, the April report is here, and the July report is here. For comparison, … Continue reading

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“Congressman 1”

Way to go, Pete! Former U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions is an unnamed member of Congress mentioned in an indictment against two business associates of President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudolph Giuliani, according to NBC News. The two Soviet-born men, Igor Fruman and … Continue reading

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Secondhand Sessions

If at first you don’t succeed, find something easier to do. Former U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions formally launched his campaign Thursday to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Bill Flores, R-Bryan, opting against running again in his old Dallas-based district and pressing … Continue reading

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Five for fleeing

There goes another one. U.S. Rep. Bill Flores announced Wednesday morning that he would not run for reelection in 2020 — making him the fifth Texas Republican to announce his retirement from Congress. “Serving my country as the Representative of … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading

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January 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

We come to the last of our January finance report roundups. The next one will be in April, for Congressional candidates, which will be our first indicator of who among the repeaters and the newcomers has gotten off to a … Continue reading

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October 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Wow. It’s not just Beto. Newly filed campaign finance reports show that money flooded into Democratic congressional campaigns all across the state over the last three months. Along with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s blockbuster $38 million haul in his bid against … Continue reading

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Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading

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July 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

So we know that Texas Democratic Congressional challengers really crushed it in Q2, and that’s on top of three strong quarters before that. How good was it? Let’s quantify. Here are the July 2017 finance reports, here are the October … Continue reading

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Checking in on the Congressional forecast

Now that our November lineups are finalized, I thought I’d check in once again on the 2018 Congressional race forecast, from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab. I last wrote about this in December, at a time when the generic … Continue reading

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A look at CD16 and CD03

As one might expect, the primary race for Beto O’Rourke’s soon-to-be-former Congressional seat is compettiive and < and getting a little salty. [Now-former El Paso COunty Judge Veronica] Escobar is running, in part, on her experience as a former leader … Continue reading

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Another look at Congressional odds

I was browsing around Facebook and came across a link to this 2018 midterm forecast from The Crosstab, whose proprietor also works at Decision Desk. As such, it is basically a December update to the November Decision Desk forecast, which … Continue reading

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Filing roundup: Other Congressional races, part 1

We already knew this, but just a reminder there’s at least one Democratic candidate in all 36 Congressional districts in Texas. In deep-red Texas, Republicans will have to fight for every congressional seat in next year’s midterm elections. For the … Continue reading

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Early Congressional odds

Decision Desk provides an early view of the 2018 Congressional election. The 2018 House Midterm Election is bound to be one of the more interesting in recent memory. With Donald Trump in the White House, infighting on both sides of … Continue reading

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If it were good for Travis it would be good elsewhere as well

This article asks if Travis County is better off being split into five different Congressional districts. Seems to me that’s a question that answers itself, but I’ll play along. The voters and geography of Travis County are split among five … Continue reading

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Runoff roundup

Here’s a look at some of the runoff elections that will be on the ballot next month. On the Democratic side…boy, there’s not much. No statewide runoffs, as Linda Chavez-Thompson got a majority in her three-candidate race for Lite Guv. … Continue reading

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Challenging Chet

Via Eye on Williamson, I see the national GOP is once again looking to try to beat Rep. Chet Edwards in CD17. There’s little question Republicans are looking to target Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), who could face yet another tough … Continue reading

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