Tag Archives: CD25

“Fort Worth is the new Austin”

Hadn’t thought of it that way. Who speaks for Fort Worth in the nation’s capital? For more than 25 years the go-to member of the Texas delegation for Tarrant County has been U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth. From securing … Continue reading

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More redistricting stuff

Just a roundup of some redistricting stories. We’ll start with the DMN. The new map, part of a process of redrawing legislative boundaries every 10 years, makes significant changes in North Texas, where Democrats likely will gain a seat held … Continue reading

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First proposed Congressional map is out

It’s a thing. Texas lawmakers on Monday released their first draft of a new congressional map for the next decade that includes two new districts in Austin and Houston — metropolitan areas with diverse populations tht fueled much of the … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Congress, part 1

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading

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Ground Game Texas

This is good, too. Some of Democrats’ biggest regrets about the 2020 election in Texas had to do with organizing. It was not consistent throughout the cycle — and usually isn’t in any cycle. It was supplanted by TV ads … Continue reading

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January 2021 campaign finance reports: Congress

Should have done this a long time ago, just to close the books on the 2020 election cycle, but for a variety of reasons I didn’t. With the forthcoming special election in CD06, I now have a reason to care … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Presidential results by Congressional district

From Daily Kos Elections, the breakdown of how Presidential voting went in each of Texas’ 36 Congressional districts: Two districts did in fact flip on the presidential level: Trump lost the 24th District in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs while recapturing … Continue reading

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A closer look at county races, Part 2

Part One is here. As before, this is about taking a closer look at the counties where Democrats made gains from 2016. Collin County: Our reach may have exceeded our grasp, but it’s important to note that progress was made. … Continue reading

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October 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

This is it, the last quarterly finance report roundup for the cycle. It’s been quite the time, hasn’t it? Let’s do this and see where we are as voting continues. The January 2019 roundup is here, which closed out the … Continue reading

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The overlooked Congressional race

There are ten Congressional races involving Republican-held seats that are seen as competitive. Nine of them have gotten a fair amount of attention. The tenth is CD06, and the Texas Signal steps in to fill the gap. The race in … Continue reading

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It’s Julie Oliver week

Julie Oliver, the Democratic candidate in CD25, is getting a fair bit of attention this week. First, there’s this Statesman story about what her path to victory looks like. On a recent Zoom fundraiser with Beto O’Rourke, Democratic congressional candidate … Continue reading

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Interview with Julie Oliver

If the story of the 2018 Congressional elections in Texas was the unprecedented number of serious candidates and their equally unprecedented success at fundraising, the story of 2020 is how many of those Congressional races are seen as credibly winnable … Continue reading

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CD03 poll: Taylor 44, Seikaly 43

From Nate Cohn: If there’s any single competitive district you could look at on Election Night to know whether Texas went blue, this might be the pick — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 8:47 AM – 17 September 2020 All we get … Continue reading

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CD25: Williams 45, Oliver 43

The Congressional polls, they keep coming. Progressive Democratic candidate Julie Oliver is in a close race with her GOP incumbent opponent Rep. Roger Williams, a new internal poll finds. The poll of 400 likely voters by EMC Research shows Oliver … Continue reading

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DCCC expands the field in Texas again

This is as wide as it goes. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is adding three more districts to its Texas target list, expanding an already ambitious battlefield in the state. The new targets of the House Democratic campaign arm are … Continue reading

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Once again with female Congressional candidates

This is another post that was drafted in the Before Times, specifically right after the March primary. I went through the runoffs and assessed all of the races that could or would contain a female candidate or incumbent against a … Continue reading

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A slightly less rosy view of Democratic prospects

Here’s the latest race ratings from Texas Elects: Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. … Continue reading

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CD25 poll: Roger Williams 45, Julie Oliver 43

This is genuinely astonishing. To showcase just how extensively Trump’s decline has shifted the playing field, the DCCC shared with the Washington Post details of an in-house poll it conducted of Texas’ deep-red 25th Congressional District that finds Joe Biden … Continue reading

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Checking in on CD21

Thar’s the race where Wendy Davis is trying to unseat the mini-Ted Cruz known as Chip Roy, and the pundits are thinking she can do it. All signs are pointing toward a competitive race between incumbent conservative firebrand U.S. Rep. … Continue reading

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July 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Congratulations, everyone. Not only have we made it to the other side of another quarterly reporting period, we have also successfully navigated the primary runoffs. My next quarterly finance report post for Congress will thus be shorter, as this is … Continue reading

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Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading

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A bullish take on the State House

From Mike Hailey of Capitol Inside: The wildly unpredictable coronavirus appears to be fueling a massive blue wave that sweeps the Democrats back into power in the Texas House of Representatives with President Donald Trump as their all-time greatest ally. … Continue reading

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Comparing the April finance reports

In my roundup of April finance reports for Congress, I said I’d do a comparison of the 2018 numbers to 2020. I’m a blogger of his word, so let’s have that look. Dist Year Name Raised Spent Loans On Hand … Continue reading

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April 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Hey, remember politics? You know, races and finance reports and stuff like that? Yeah, it’s still happening, weird as that may seem right now. As we are well into April, the Q1 Congressional finance reports for 2020 are in, and … Continue reading

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2020 primary results: Senate and Congress

In the US Senate primary, MJ Heger is clearly headed to the runoff. It’s less clear who’s in second place, in part because the statewide results are so out of date on both the Trib and SOS pages. As of … Continue reading

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A look at the CD25 primary

CD25 in Central Texas is a lower-tier race but after a much closer result in 2018 than before it’s on the radar this year and there’s an interesting primary to see who gets to take the shot at it. When … Continue reading

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January 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

The big ones for this cycle the Q4 2019 Congressional finance reports. For the last time, we have new candidates joining the list, and a couple of folks dropping out. Let’s do the thing and see where we are going … Continue reading

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DMN profile of Chris Bell

The Dallas Morning News did a series of profiles of Democratic Senate candidates during the Christmas break. They’re worth reading, especially since polls show many of us don’t know these candidates all that well. I’m going to post about each … Continue reading

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On Republican female Congressional candidates

The sub-head for this article should be “It’s easy to show large percentage gains when you start from a very low base”. Heavy recruiting of female candidates paid off for Texas Democrats in 2018, but it is Republican women who … Continue reading

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After-deadline filing review: Congress

Let’s continue our walk through the filings. I’m going to take a look at some of the interesting Congressional races, skipping over the ones we just looked at. CD01: It’s still not remotely competitive, but I once again want to … Continue reading

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Our first Congressional race ratings

From Politico, here’s the early view of the state of Texas’ Congressional races in 2020. Lean Dem CD23 (Open, R) CD32 (Allred, D) Tossup CD07 (Fletcher, D) CD22 (Open, R) CD24 (Open, R) Lean GOP CD02 (Crenshaw, R) CD10 (McCaul, … Continue reading

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Filing period preview: Congress

So even though we still have the 2019 runoffs to settle, the 2020 election is officially upon us. I say this because the filing period for 2020 candidates began on Saturday the 9th, closing on December 9. I expect there … Continue reading

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October 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Moving on to the Q3 FEC reports, we again have new candidates making their appearance. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle, the April report is here, and the July report is here. For comparison, … Continue reading

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Try, try again

A lot of women ran for office as Democrats in 2018. A lot of them won, and a lot of them who didn’t win are trying again. [Gina Ortiz Jones isn’t] the only woman who’s back for a second round. … Continue reading

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