As I write this on Sunday, there’s a lot we don’t know about how this saga ends. I feel confident saying that at some point there will be a quorum and a new map will be passed. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.
The purpose of this post is to assume that we’re going to get the map that is currently proposed, and to see how its architect squeezed out five possible pickups without endangering existing incumbents. Given that this map was constructed under the assumption that voting patterns witnessed in 2024 would persist, I also wanted to see what the numbers would look like in a more favorable environment for Democrats, namely those like we saw in the 2018 election. We can then hopefully see the effect of those 2024 assumptions.
To do this, I put the 38 Congressional districts into three groups: The reasonably safe but not overwhelmingly red Republican districts, the deep red districts, and the districts that were won by Democrats in 2024. I then took the election results from 2018 and 2024 for the current and proposed maps and made the tables below, with the Trump/Harris and Beto/Cruz numbers for each, to see how they shift.
2018 results, current districts
2018 results, proposed districts
2024 results, current districts
2024 results, proposed districts
Here’s the first group, the “normal” Republican districts:
Current map – Plan 2193
Dist Trump24 Cruz18 Harris24 Beto18
==========================================
CD02 61.3% 62.0% 37.5% 37.3%
CD03 58.6% 57.5% 38.7% 41.7%
CD05 62.8% 59.9% 35.8% 39.4%
CD06 63.6% 61.5% 35.1% 37.7%
CD10 61.6% 58.4% 36.8% 40.6%
CD12 60.7% 57.7% 38.1% 41.4%
CD15 58.5% 43.8% 40.6% 55.5%
CD21 61.1% 59.8% 37.6% 39.3%
CD22 58.7% 58.4% 39.2% 40.9%
CD23 57.2% 50.5% 41.7% 48.7%
CD24 56.8% 56.9% 41.3% 42.3%
CD26 61.0% 59.6% 37.6% 39.6%
CD31 60.8% 59.9% 37.6% 39.0%
CD38 59.4% 59.8% 38.7% 39.4%
Proposed map – Plan 2308
Dist Trump24 Cruz18 Harris24 Beto18
==========================================
CD02 60.3% 60.2% 38.4% 39.0%
CD03 60.3% 58.9% 37.0% 40.3%
CD05 60.1% 56.8% 38.6% 42.5%
CD06 60.6% 59.5% 37.6% 39.7%
CD10 60.5% 55.8% 37.9% 43.3%
CD12 61.3% 56.9% 37.5% 42.2%
CD15 58.5% 44.1% 40.6% 55.4%
CD21 60.2% 57.4% 38.5% 41.7%
CD22 59.2% 58.5% 38.5% 40.5%
CD23 56.9% 51.4% 41.9% 47.8%
CD24 57.1% 56.7% 41.0% 42.4%
CD26 61.2% 59.4% 37.4% 39.7%
CD31 60.1% 59.2% 38.3% 39.8%
CD38 59.3% 59.1% 38.9% 40.1%
Just so we’re clear, the dividing line between these and the “dark red” districts is fuzzy and vibes-based, so please hold your questions about why this district is here and that district is there. You can see how much care was put into the maintenance of the existing Republican districts. With two obvious exceptions that I’ll get to in a minute, none of these become noticeably less red. CDs 10 and 12 are the biggest mover among the rest of the districts, going from “solid” to “maybe on the fringe of competitiveness in a more favorable year than 2018 was”. Which is to say, not much to hang one’s hat on.
The exceptions are of course CDs 15 and 23, where the former goes from a solid Trump district to one won by Beto by 12 points, and the latter goes from solid Trump to tossup with a slight Republican lean. You have no doubt see the stories about how the Republicans are banking on the red shift among Latinos in 2024 being mostly permanent. These are the first, but far from the last, examples of what they are talking about. If Latinos vote similarly in 2026 to how they did in 2024 – it doesn’t have to be exactly the same, just enough of the same – then the Republicans will accomplish what they are aiming for with this map. That will also re-solidify Texas as a truly red state, not one that is trending towards or on the verge of becoming competitive at the statewide level. If everything is like 2018 again, then not only is Texas back to being a competitive state for the next Presidential election, Dems could break even or maybe possibly pick up a seat even under this map. No pressure, right?
I do think based on current polls and the normal behavior of midterm elections that some reversion to the previous norms are to be expected. The big question is by how much. In 2022, a year where the percentages were more or less the same in the non-15 and 23 districts above, Beto lost CD15 52-46 and CD23 54-44. 2024 was very different than 2018, but it didn’t happen all at once. A reversion to 2022 for Latinos will keep these districts red and likely still give the GOP that five-seat pickup. I really don’t know what to expect, and it’s mostly a fool’s game trying to draw conclusions from polling data this far out. There are reasons for optimism and reasons for caution. Just keep in mind that 1) reversion to 2018 is a big step, and 2) even then, the best we can probably hope for is to break even. If Trump starts polling consistently below 35% approval, then we can reassses.
Now here are the solid red districts:
Current map – Plan 2193
Dist Trump24 Cruz18 Harris24 Beto18
==========================================
CD01 75.2% 72.5% 24.0% 26.9%
CD04 65.3% 62.7% 32.9% 36.6%
CD08 66.3% 62.8% 32.4% 36.5%
CD11 72.2% 69.2% 26.8% 30.0%
CD13 73.3% 71.5% 25.6% 27.8%
CD14 66.5% 62.6% 32.5% 36.7%
CD17 64.0% 60.5% 34.8% 38.7%
CD19 75.3% 71.5% 23.7% 27.8%
CD25 67.5% 64.5% 31.2% 34.7%
CD27 64.3% 59.6% 34.7% 39.7%
CD36 67.8% 64.4% 32.3% 35.0%
Proposed map – Plan 2308
Dist Trump24 Cruz18 Harris24 Beto18
==========================================
CD01 74.3% 71.4% 24.8% 28.0%
CD04 61.2% 59.0% 36.6% 40.3%
CD08 61.9% 56.0% 36.7% 43.3%
CD11 66.5% 63.4% 32.2% 35.7%
CD13 72.5% 70.7% 26.4% 28.5%
CD14 63.5% 60.5% 35.3% 38.8%
CD17 59.9% 56.5% 38.5% 42.5%
CD19 75.3% 71.5% 23.7% 27.8%
CD25 61.4% 56.6% 37.4% 42.6%
CD27 60.0% 58.0% 38.7% 41.2%
CD36 66.2% 61.8% 32.6% 37.6%
Ultimately, if you want to squeeze more Republican districts out of the current Congressional map, you have to move some amount of Democratic voters out of districts that you would like to target for flips, and some number of Republican voters in to replace them. The natural place to do this is in the districts that are the most heavily Republican to begin with, as they have the greatest capacity.
The biggest shifts are in CDs 08, 17, and 25, all of which shift between eight and 12 points towards Dems at the Presidential level from the current map to the proposed one. That doesn’t make any of them competitive under 2024 conditions, but as they also have a similar shift from 2024 to 2018, they’re as competitive as anything from the first group in the 2018 environment. This is also a function of many districts becoming more Latino – the “2024 voting patterns are the new normal” assumption is baked in at multiple levels. If we are in a situation where Trump has mostly lost what he had gained among Latino voters, and his approval ratings are in the dumps, then we are going to want to have recruited decent candidates in these districts. That will almost certainly require a bet on our side, as the filing period for next year will likely be too far out to have any confidence in that kind of projection. Whatever we’re focusing on now, we should be thinking ahead as well.
I will also note that CD11 has a similar shift at the Presidential level, and CD36 has one from 2024 to 2018, but the net effect of both still leaves them as comfortably red. I honestly expected there to be a bigger effect in the deepest red districts, but for the most part it was within the same bounds as anywhere else that was red to begin with.
The real big shifts are in the districts won by Dems in 2024. That’s a tautology to some extent, as these were the districts that were expressly targeted for Republican pickup opportunities, but it’s still shocking to see the effects.
Current map – Plan 2193
Dist Trump24 Cruz18 Harris24 Beto18
==========================================
CD07 38.1% 37.7% 58.8% 61.5%
CD09 27.2% 20.3% 71.2% 79.2%
CD16 41.3% 25.3% 57.2% 74.1%
CD18 29.4% 22.4% 69.1% 76.9%
CD20 38.7% 30.0% 59.9% 69.0%
CD28 53.1% 40.2% 45.8% 58.9%
CD29 39.2% 23.2% 59.6% 75.7%
CD30 25.8% 19.5% 72.6% 79.9%
CD32 36.7% 32.5% 60.3% 66.6%
CD33 31.9% 20.8% 65.6% 78.5%
CD34 51.8% 34.1% 47.3% 65.3%
CD35 32.3% 22.9% 65.8% 76.2%
CD37 24.2% 21.1% 73.2% 77.8%
Proposed map – Plan 2308
Dist Trump24 Cruz18 Harris24 Beto18
==========================================
CD07 36.5% 30.9% 60.5% 68.4%
CD09 57.1% 48.7% 41.9% 50.7%
CD16 41.1% 25.1% 57.4% 74.3%
CD18 22.2% 16.0% 76.3% 83.5%
CD20 35.0% 26.4% 63.5% 72.7%
CD28 54.8% 33.5% 44.4% 65.8%
CD29 34.0% 24.0% 64.7% 75.4%
CD30 25.7% 19.6% 72.7% 79.8%
CD32 57.7% 53.9% 40.0% 45.2%
CD33 32.6% 23.9% 65.2% 75.4%
CD34 54.6% 44.2% 44.5% 55.0%
CD35 54.6% 49.7% 44.2% 49.4%
CD37 20.6% 15.7% 76.8% 83.3%
The good news is that under 2018 conditions, only one of the five targeted districts would be a clear underdog for Dems, that being CD32. CDs 09 and 35 would be tossups, with the former slightly favoring Dems and the latter slightly favoring Republicans. CDs 28 and 34 would be solidly and reasonably blue.
But boy it’s hard to look at these numbers and not be stunned by the degradation in Democratic performance from 2018 to 2024. CDs 16 and 28 are almost not the same district from one cycle to the next, while CDs 29, 33, and 34 have double-digit shifts, with several others right behind. Only CD35 is affected to the same degree as some of the deep red districts. It’s absolutely mind-boggling.
Let’s be clear that this kind of motion in the numbers isn’t the result of a drop in turnout or more effective voter suppression or whatever comforting rationales we want to indulge in. Sure, there were people who voted for our team in 2020 who didn’t show up in 2024. I’ve written about it, and I’m sure to this day that the voter data supports that. But you can’t explain these numbers without accepting that some number of people changed who they voted for. It’s the mirror image of what we saw in districts like the old CD07, when a bunch of people who were Mitt Romney Republicans in 2012 were now voting for Democrats. Those people have largely stuck with us – indeed, they’re more Democratic now – through multiple subsequent elections. If they can shift and stay shifted, why can’t these voters?
One answer to that is that they’re not getting what they voted for, if what they voted for was lower prices and more focus on deporting criminals. We have polling data to back that up. They’re still going to need to be persuaded, and there’s still going to be a ton of money spent to spread lies and fear and disinformation to them, which we will have to counter. It won’t be easy. But the upside for doing it is huge, and it’s not like we have a choice. This is what the playing field is probably going to look like. When the fight stops being about preventing this map from happening – and it will, and we all know that it will – this is what the fight needs to be about. Keep fighting to prevent the map, but be ready to move on when the time comes. We can still get what we want out of this.