This one has more numbers in it.
Taylor Rehmet
Despite the district’s solid-red reputation, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the most votes in a Tuesday special election for vacant Senate District 9.
The district, represented by Kelly Hancock since 2013, encompasses northern Tarrant County and much of Fort Worth, and spans into Keller and Southlake. It went for Trump in 2024, 58% to 41% for former Vice President Kamala Harris. Hancock’s Democratic opponent won 40% of votes in a 2022 election for the seat.
But Rehmet, in a special election that aligned with a statewide constitutional election, won 47.6% percent of votes. He’s headed to a runoff with Republican Leigh Wambsganss, who captured 36% of votes. The other Republican in the race, former Southlake Mayor John Huffman, won 16.5%.
So what’s behind Rehmet’s lead? The union leader from Fort Worth was hesitant to speculate in an election night interview. Perhaps it comes down to his humble background and being an honest person, he said.
“I really believe that people can see through all the polish and all the fancy money behind certain politicians, because what matters whenever it comes to representation is, does this person have the integrity needed?” Rehmet said. “Does the person have the drive?”
But experts say his win can partially be seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump, in line with Democratic successes across the country Tuesday night.
“This was a night for Democrats to express their discontent with Trump,” said Jim Riddlespergerger, a TCU political science professor.
Now, Rehmet and Wambsganss will work to get the votes needed to win the coming runoff — a date for which hasn’t been set. And Republicans can’t sit back if they want to keep the district red.
“We cannot take the runoff for granted,” said Tarrant County Commissioner Matt Krause in a social media post. Krause previously served in the Texas House. “The Democrat candidate also had a strong showing which should be a wakeup call to all Republicans in SD 9.”
[…]
“It’s just a different thing when a Democrat runs this strong in a Republican district,” said SMU Political Science Professor Cal Jillson.
There are Democratic voters in the district, though they’ve typically been outnumbered by Republicans, so it’s not a surprise Rehmet would advance to a runoff or even clinch the first place spot, said Riddlesperger.
“But the fact that he got in the upper 40 percent was, in fact, quite surprising,” Riddlesperger said.
[…]
But also contributing to his victory was a desire for Democrats to show opposition to Trump — even if the president wasn’t explicitly on the ballot. Experts said the referendum, to some degree, also extends to state leadership, like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a Trump surrogate who, like the president, endorsed Wambsganss.
“There’s certainly a lot of concern from voters that the politicians in power aren’t doing enough to help them,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Allison Campolo also sees the outcome as a rebuke of Republican leadership, including Trump. Rehmet’s favorable outcome is also a signal of the Democrat’s successful campaign, she said.
“Here in Texas, so many of us are represented by so many terrible Republicans who are very extremist, and I think this is a big pushback against everything that’s been happening this year, everything since November 2024,” Campolo said Tuesday night at Rehmet’s watch party.
[…]
Wambsganss, who works as Patriot Mobiles’ chief communication officer, is better positioned in her path to victory come runoff time, Rottinghaus said. Her key to success will be getting Republican voters to turn out, he said.
“She’s in a better position because it’s a Republican leaning district and getting Republicans to vote in these runoffs is an easier task than getting Democrats or independents to come vote,” Rottinghaus said.
Wambsganss said her runoff message remains the same as in the first round of voting.
“I’m there to fight for faith, family and freedom, just like the over three decades that I’ve spent my life doing for Texas and for conservative values,” she said, highlighting issues like lowering property taxes, supporting first responders, border security and education.
Jillson expects Rehmet to continue focusing on the “kitchen table issues.”
“Because that resonated in the election yesterday,” Jillson said.
Rehmet will also likely work to win over Huffman supporters, Riddlesperger said.
“It’s hard for a Democrat to make arguments that will appeal to Republican voters, but it certainly can be done, and it has to be done,” Riddlesperger said.
What do Huffman voters do? “I think many of the Huffman voters stay home,” Jillson said. “Most of the rest, I think, go to Wambsganss. A few go to Rehmet, and the race is close.”
And then there’s Trump’s endorsement, featured prominently in Wambsganss’ bid. Wambsganss will have to weigh focusing on her support for Trump versus a focus on topics beyond social issues, Jillson said.
The president’s support is a double-edged sword, Rottinghaus said.
“It helps her among core Republican voters, who are more likely to turn out in a runoff to a special election,” Rottinghaus said. “But it obviously ties her to Trump’s economy, which a lot of people are frustrated by.”
See here for the first story. I said in that piece that for the Democratic Party and affiliated orgs to get more involved is needed but also at least somewhat risky, in that raising the profile of the race and of Taylor Rehmet could have the effect of getting more Republicans engaged as well. It’s nice to see someone make the point that the Republicans face a similar choice and risk, since this election was in large part a response to Donald Trump. And boy howdy to I cosign what Allison Campolo says. That’s especially true in Tarrant County, between their mid-decade redistricting and their loathsome County Judge and Republican Party Chair.
I guess the way to think about this is that Rehmet has a lead in the number of people who did vote, and a deficit in the number of people who could vote. How exactly do you maximize the former while minimizing the latter? I don’t know, but that’s how he wins. I wish him all the luck in the world.