In a Texas survey done for the Texas Democratic Party, we found Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied in the state at 48. Only 46% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 50% who disapprove. A Quinnipiac University survey released this week showed the state a toss up as well.
One particularly notable finding in the Texas poll is that Biden leads 53-41 among voters under 45…and 51-46 among voters between 46 and 65 as well. The only thing keeping Trump in the game is a 59-38 lead with seniors. That huge generational split means Democrats are going to start winning important elections in Texas some day…and it could even be this year.
See here for more on that Quinnipiac poll. PPP had previously released a poll in April that had Biden up by one, 47-46, which so far has been the best single result he has had in this state since becoming the presumptive (now official) nominee. The TDP has posted the polling data here. It shows Trump doing better among women than men, which is sufficiently odd (and the accompanying numbers divergent enough) that I’m pretty sure that’s a transcription error, and those numbers should be reversed. Interestingly, it also shows Trump leading among independents 52-42, but he only wins Republicans by an 83-14 margin (Biden takes Dems 88-8), and he carries 2016 Trump voters 89-9 while Biden wins 2016 Hillary voters 94-4 and “someone else/did not vote” respondents 54-23. That suggests that Trump’s problems are one part a bit of base erosion and one part a lack of any viable “none of the above” option for the more wishy-washy among us.
As always, it’s one poll, and these are small subsamples, so read that data with extreme caution. Other polls have suggested Trump is doing just fine with his base but is losing among indies, so don’t fall in love with a single narrative but keep an eye on the numbers as a whole. As far as that goes, the six-poll average now stands at Trump 46.7, Biden 44.2, as close as any race has been at this time in my memory.