When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table:
Dist 2012 2014 2016 Total 2018
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CD02 50,168 0 14,217 64,385 843,045
CD03 0 0 0 0 153,559
CD06 145,117 13,027 27,339 185,483 358,960
CD07 76,900 74,005 68,159 219,064 2,321,869
CD08 14,935 0 0 14,935 25,044
CD10 51,855 9,994 6,120 67,969 171,955
CD12 10,785 80,216 525 91,526 106,715
CD14 1,187,774 35,302 21,586 1,244,662 105,067
CD17 0 0 39,642 39,642 67,000
CD21 57,058 0 70,714 127,772 1,594,724
CD22 40,303 0 24,584 64,887 405,169
CD23 1,802,829 2,671,926 2,198,475 6,673,230 2,256,366
CD24 6,252 10,001 21,914 39,167 61,324
CD25 12,235 32,801 55,579 100,615 199,047
CD26 11,273 0 0 11,273 94,235
CD27 399,641 301,255 23,558 724,454 93,570
CD31 0 67,742 28,317 96,059 1,618,359
CD32 79,696 10,215 0 89,911 1,916,601
CD36 2,597 25,213 0 27,810 516,859
Total 3,927,360 3,251,481 2,600,204 9,780,045 12,909,468
The first three columns are the total amounts raised by the November candidate in the given district for the given year. Some years there were no candidates, and some years the candidate reported raising no money. The fourth column is the sum of the first three. Note that with the exception of CD23 in 2014, these are all totals raised by challengers to Republican incumbents.
The numbers speak for themselves. With five months still go so, Democratic Congressional challengers have raised more so far this cycle than the challengers in the previous three cycles combined. The combined amount raised this year is three times what was raised in 2012, four times what was raised in 2014, and five times what was raised in 2016. Candidates this year outraised the three-year total in their districts everywhere except CDs 14 (due to Nick Lampson’s candidacy in 2012), 27 (due to two cycles’ worth of decent funding), and 23, the one true swing district where the big money is always raised.
It’s been said many times and I’ll say it again: We’ve never seen anything like this before. The reasons for it are well-explored, and the conditions that have given rise to it are (I fervently hope) singular, but it all happened. Is this a unicorn that we’ll never see again, or will it be the first step towards something different, more like this year even if not quite as much? I’d say that depends to some extent on how successful this year ends up being, and how committed everyone is to making this be more than a one-time thing. It’s a good start, but there is a whole lot more that can still be done.