Precinct analysis: Congress 2022

State House 2022
A comparison with 2012

This will be short and bland, as there ain’t many competitive Congressional districts by any metric.

Dist  Abbott   Abb%    Beto   Beto%
28    79,478  46.4%   88,550  51.7%
34    57,793  42.7%   75,741  55.9%

15    81,095  52.4%   71,649  46.3%
23   116,353  54.4%   94,259  44.1%

03   163,075  59.1%  108,840  39.5%
12   143,586  59.9%   92,478  38.6%
22   144,862  59.5%   95,274  39.1% 
24   172,837  57.5%  123,159  41.0%

I could do a similar comparison to 2012, but that won’t tell us much. We already know that the swing seat list at that time was the then-Dem held CD23, and that was about it. CD23 flipped red in 2014 and managed to stay there, while CDs 07 and 32 went blue in 2018 and are now a much darker blue, to help make their formerly swingy neighbors more reliably red. This is what redistricting is all about.

Not a whole lot to say here. Republican interest in CD34 is already starting to wane, and I suspect we’re all going to be stuck with Henry Cuellar for the foreseeable future. Whatever one may say about Jessica Cisneros and any future efforts to oust Cuellar in a primary, the narrative that his district is “dark blue”, which wasn’t the case in 2020 or 2022, will hopefully die. I do think a better Dem than Cuellar can hold that district, but anyone who claims that basically any Dem could do so is at best kidding themselves. Let’s please put some more thought into this if we try again next year, that’s all I’m saying.

The best Dem pickup chance, at least on paper, is the seat that redistricting helped take away in CD15. Maybe CD23 becomes interesting again if the Republicans fully indulge in their fury against Rep. Tony Gonzales, or maybe like Cuellar and CD28 there exists room for someone more orthodox to hold the seat. On the one hand, Republican primary voters are not known for making rational, calculated choices. On the other hand, that is still a ten-point margin. You pay your money and you take your chances.

I continue to believe that the best target will end up being CD24 again, but that will likely take a couple of cycles. Maybe CDs 03 and 22 can join it, if we pray hard enough to the Demography Gods. I dunno. I will of course keep an eye on this, and I am somehow still a cockeyed optimist in these matters, but for now my forecast is that the Congressional landscape is boring. I hope to be wrong about that sooner rather than later.

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3 Responses to Precinct analysis: Congress 2022

  1. Manny says:

    Re: Henry Cuellar

    Tell someone you are going after their jobs, then don’t be surprised if they vote for the other person.

    Border patrol and the oil industry are the best-paying jobs in that area.

    Unsurprisingly, many first and second-generation immigrants from south of the border are against illegal immigration. They got their pie and don’t want to share; the low-wage newcomers will affect their jobs.

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