A couple of points to note here.
Big John Cornyn
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 points in a new poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP-leadership backed super PAC.
SLF is supporting Cornyn. Their poll has Cornyn trailing Paxton 56-40, according to two people briefed on the survey.
In a three-way contest with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering a run, Cornyn is down 10. Paxton pulled 44% to Cornyn’s 34%. Hunt got 19% in the three-way race.
The survey, which was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by The Tarrance Group, also tested a general election contest between each potential Republican candidate and former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is mulling another Senate run. Cornyn led Allred by 6 points in the poll. Hunt was up 4 points. Paxton was down by 1 point.
Those results underscore a real fear for Republicans — that Paxton, a MAGA loyalist who has faced a slew of legal troubles, is best positioned to win a primary but could struggle in a general election.
Yet more importantly, this poll is devastating for Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002. Privately, some GOP operatives increasingly believe there may be no path for him to secure the nomination. It’s not the first survey to suggest Cornyn is in trouble, but this one comes from Cornyn allies.
I’m not in the business of trying to guess what Republicans will do or why they do what they do. Some things are just unfathomable. My advice for what Democrats should be doing remains the same.
I have no trouble believing that Cornyn would be the stronger candidate. John Cornyn is nowhere close to my idea of a good Senator, but he does have a long and solid record of passing normal, substantive legislation. Even in this hyper-partisan post-truth world, I believe there are more people who would support that than there are that would support Ken Paxton’s performative nihilist wingnut bullshit. The downside of Paxton winning is enough that I’d almost rather than we not test that out, but as noted that’s not in my hands.
That said, let’s not go overboard with a result like this, especially when we don’t even get to see the topline numbers, let alone the poll data. We know that Cornyn leads Allred by six and Paxton trails Allred by one. (Yes, there are multiple potential Democratic Senate candidates, but Allred is the best known other than Beto and the first to suggest an interest in running. Pollsters have to make some choices, you know?) There’s a big difference between this result being “Cornyn 47 Allred 41, Paxton 41 Allred 42” and “Cornyn 47 Allred 41, Paxton 45 Allred 46”. In the former, Allred the Dem is at the same basic level while there are a handful of Republicans who aren’t ready to admit yet that they’ll vote for the Republican even if it’s Ken Paxton. This is a totally normal result. In the latter, Allred has picked up some support, perhaps in part from those “Cornyn but not Paxton” voters, and is tangible evidence that there’s some animus towards Paxton. Still just one result so possibly an outlier, but at least something you can point to and watch for going forward.
Anyway. I keep telling myself that I want to spend less time on polls, it’s too much energy for ephemeral malarkey. I mostly accomplished that last year, one of the few triumphs any of us can claim from that dumpster fire. And now here I am, already being dragged back in for 2026. Please send help. I’ll try to do better from now on. Reform Austin has more.