WTF?
President Trump’s political team is encouraging Republican leaders in Texas to examine how House district lines in the state could be redrawn ahead of next year’s midterm elections to try to save the party’s endangered majority, according to people in Texas and Washington who are familiar with the effort.
The push from Washington has unnerved some Texas Republicans, who worry that reworking the boundaries of Texas House seats to turn Democratic districts red by adding reliably Republican voters from neighboring Republican districts could backfire in an election that is already expected to favor Democrats.
Rather than flip the Democratic districts, new lines could endanger incumbent Republicans.
But a person close to the president, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to talk publicly, nevertheless urged a “ruthless” approach and said Mr. Trump would welcome any chance to pick up seats in the midterms. The president would pay close attention to those in his party who help or hurt that effort, the person warned.
At an “emergency” meeting on Monday night in the Capitol, congressional Republicans from Texas professed little interest in redrawing their districts, according to a person briefed on the gathering who was not authorized to comment publicly. The 20-minute meeting, organized by Representative Michael McCaul, a senior member of the state delegation, focused on the White House push.
Representative Pete Sessions, Republican of Texas, said lawmakers plan to gather again to share data and “be on the same page” on the possible redrawing of the map.
“We assured each other, you need to bone up. We need to have a conversation. We need to think about what those impacts would be on the entire delegation,” Mr. Sessions said.
[…]
The maps that were drawn by the Republican Legislature in 2021, after the last census, are still being fought over, in forums including a trial that began last month in a federal court in El Paso.
But talk among Republicans of taking the task on again has been swirling around the Texas Capitol since the Legislature was in session earlier this year. The governor, the lieutenant governor and the attorney general have all discussed the possibility in recent weeks, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
In recent days, that talk has become more serious. It appeared to be driven in part by President Trump’s concern that the Republican Party could lose its slim majority in the House, derailing the second half of his term and empowering Democratic investigations of his administration.
[…]
Still, those pushing for the plan believe that Republicans could potentially pick up as many as four or five House seats in 2026, according to two of the people with knowledge of the discussions.
To do that would involve pushing Republican voters from safe Republican districts into neighboring Democratic districts to make them more competitive. In a wave year for Democrats, that could endanger incumbent Republicans as well as Democrats.
“The only way you make the state more competitive congressionally is you do it at their expense,” State Representative Trey Martinez Fischer, a San Antonio Democrat, said of congressional Republicans. “I think the Republicans have already maximized their map, given the demographic changes in the state.”
[…]
Any attempt at a mid-decade redistricting would require the Texas Legislature to approve new maps. Since the Legislature is not in session again until 2027, Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, would have to call a special session.
“From my understanding, this would be in July,” said Ron Reynolds, a Texas House Democrat from the Houston area, saying his information had come indirectly from a Republican member of the Texas House. “This is something that they’re keeping very tight-lipped.”
Gotta say, I did not see this coming. On the assumption that the gains made by Republicans among Latino voters in South Texas last year were real and not transitory, it’s not hard to imagine tweaking things in a way to make CDs 28 (Henry Cuellar) and 34 (Vicente Gonzalez) at least red-leaning. To get to four or five new seats, well, here are the next three closest blue districts:
2022
Dist Incumbent Dem % GOP %
===============================
CD16 Escobar 63.46% 36.54%
CD07 Fletcher 63.79% 36.21%
CD32 Allred 65.36% 34.64%
2024
Dist Incumbent Dem % GOP %
===============================
CD16 Escobar 59.50% 40.43%
CD32 Johnson 60.45% 36.97%
CD07 Fletcher 61.28% 38.72%
Eight GOP Congressfolk has percentages lower than Rep. Escobar in 2022, with three under 60%. Another two had percentages lower than Allred. 2024 was a stronger year for Republicans, as only two GOP members had lower percentages that Fletcher’s 61.28%, though another nine were within three points of her. I’m sure there’s a map out there that could endanger one or more of those folks, at least in another decent Republican year. I can’t imagine what a hellish spaghetti bowl such a map might resemble, but that’s not an issue right now. But for sure, there would be some potentially very narrow margins for a number of Republican incumbents, especially if 2026 is a good Democratic year. You know the old saying about pigs and hogs, right?
Basically, all other considerations aside, this is an exercise in risk assessment. Going after just Cuellar and Gonzalez is the least risky action on paper, but some of the Republican votes you’d need to harvest are going to come from CDs 15 and 23, which were both under 60% for the GOP in 2022 (Tony Gonzales did better in 2024 against a lesser opponent), so the downside is there as well. Beyond that, I dunno. It’s all pretty wild to consider. I’m not surprised that the Congressfolks themselves are maybe not too thrilled about this.
If this happens, it would have to happen quickly. Candidates need to be recruited and money needs to be raised, not just for the new challengers but for some number of less-secure incumbents. This will also attract a lot more Democratic action and fundraising, in a year where Dems once again have statewide dreams. There’s also a non-zero chance that a court could order a halt to any new map-drawing until the ongoing redistricting litigation has concluded. I don’t think the Republicans are stupid to consider this – evil, sure, but not stupid – but it’s a big swing and could definitely come with a steep price. Never a dull moment around here. Via the Trib.
Bring it.
If all us Democrats are salivating at the prospect of this, then surely Republicans will figure out it is not a good idea for them, right? Right?