PREVOIUSLY:
Back in April I just took a look at who had already started raising money for CD18. There wasn’t much else to report so I thought I’d wait till the July report to see what was going on elsewhere. Turns out, everything is happening. Republicans are running amuck with re-redistricting, so until we know what districts are being affected I’ll keep an eye on all of the Dem incumbents in addition to the challengers of interest. We also have a couple of Senate candidates, so here they are as well. Let’s get into it:
Colin Allred – Senate
Terry Virts – Senate
Michael Swanson – Senate
Shaun Finnie – CD02
Evan Hunt – CD03
Jordan Wheatley – CD03
Lizzie Fletcher – CD07
Al Green – CD09
Tayhlor Coleman – CD10
Veronica Escobar – CD16
Amanda Edwards – CD18
Isaiah Martin – CD18
Christian Menefee – CD18
Jolanda Jones – CD18
Zoe Cadore – CD18
Rain Eatmon – CD18
Stephen Huey – CD18
Joaquin Castro – CD20
Santos Limon – CD23
Kevin Burge – CD24
Jon Buchwald – CD24
Henry Cuellar – CD28
Sylvia Garcia – CD29
Jasmine Crockett – CD30
Julie Johnson – CD32
Marc Veasey – CD33
Vicente Gonzalez – CD34
Greg Casar – CD35
Lloyd Doggett – CD37
Melissa McDonough – CD38
Dist Name Raised Spent Loans On Hand
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Sen Allred
Sen Virts 201,255 115,652 125,374 85,602
Sen Swanson 2,503 1,329 1,698 1,174
02 Finnie 1,018,455 0 680,000 1,018,455
03 Hunt 118,088 35,107 55,925 82,980
03 Wheatley 18,462 13,817 0 4,645
07 Fletcher 569,440 248,811 0 1,637,291
09 Green 437,470 147,224 0 509,331
10 Coleman 58,585 22,443 1,279 36,415
16 Escobar 423,028 214,828 0 324,044
18 Edwards 803,348 181,444 0 623,117
18 Martin 188,079 171,018 0 191,695
18 Menefee 977,795 337,206 0 640,588
18 Jones 100,989 9,423 0 91,566
18 Cadore 239,235 56,653 4,311 182,582
18 Eatmon 13,546 10,908 0 2,687
18 Huey 12,335 174 0 12,160
20 Castro 71,526 142,146 0 168,036
23 Limon 356,755 6,815 354,400 349,940
24 Burge 22,779 4,650 0 18,128
24 Buchwald 12,474 4,300 11,341 8,173
28 Cuellar 642,834 331,578 200,000 359,215
29 Garcia 129,648 306,349 0 195,052
30 Crockett 3,836,453 1,679,780 0 3,767,905
32 Johnson 531,094 253,456 0 508,541
33 Veasey 390,333 556,217 0 843,596
34 Gonzalez 857,476 207,089 0 932,447
35 Casar 264,846 185,034 10,000 450,651
37 Doggett 62,149 65,791 0 6,224,186
38 McDonough 8,870 1,606 113,239 29,963
Reports for Dem Senate candidates are here and for Dem Congressional candidates are here. The January reports are here.
There was not yet a report for Colin Allred, for whatever the reason. Terry Virts’ $200K may not look like much, but he announced about a week before the deadline, so that’s a pretty good start. If Rep. Joaquin Castro decides to run for something other than re-election, he starts out with less on hand than what Terry Virts raised in that week. Some people see a disconnect between the talk about Castro (and about Ron Nirenberg) and his current campaign balance.
I don’t normally review all of the Dem incumbents’ reports, unless they’re known to be facing a strong challenge. With the special session looming and who knows what will happen to the map, I figured I’d keep track of everyone for now. At least until we know where they end up. Some are in a better position at the outset than others. Jasmine Crockett may have the chance to be quite the hero this cycle given where she is.
In the absence of re-redistricting, the most objectively flippable seat for Dems is CD15, which under the current map is the new CD23 and has appropriately been the focus of a lot of attention and fundraising. There’s no Dem candidate for CD15 and a finance report for July, but as of July 17 that has changed, as Harlingen doctor Ana Cuellar (no, no relation to Henry) has made her candidacy known. Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, whose recruitment by Dems I noted in the January roundup, is still out there as a possible candidate as well.
Speaking of CD23, that’s the placeholder candidate with $350K on hand, pretty much all of it thanks to a loan to himself. I don’t remember him being any kind of moneybag last cycle, so I’m not sure what to make of that. My advice would be to keep looking for an upgrade.
As of this drafting, there were 17 CD18 candidates who had links to FEC finance report pages, but only the seven listed above had anything to report. I will not be paying attention to anyone who does not have a report to file. Christian Menefee continues to be the financial frontrunner, with Amanda Edwards mostly keeping pace and being almost dead even in cash on hand thanks to lower expenditures. We are going to be inundated with ads, mailers, and door-knockers before we know it. Isaiah Martin still has a decent amount of cash on hand, but with that burn rate he’s going to have a hard time keeping up. Jolanda Jones is the most recent entrant to the race, and was limited to June for her fundraising because the Lege was in session. She’s about to be on the sidelines again, and if she’s unlucky that could drag on. Keep an eye on Zoe Cadore, who posted some strong numbers. Given her first-time status in a field with big names, that’s impressive.
I first saw Shaun Finnie‘s name in this Downballot story, then allowed my eyes to pop a little when I went and looked up his report. I agree with their assertion that under the current map he’s a big longshot, but if CD02 winds up as a 55% red district, and especially if the wingnut Steve Toth takes out Dan Crenshaw, it could get really interesting. This is exactly the risk the Republicans are toying with.
I’m also interested in Evan Hunt, Tayhlor Coleman, whose vanlife Instagram is a great follow, whoever can make some noise in CDs 23 and 24 and hopefully 21, and more. Marquette Green-Scott is back in CD22 but hasn’t raised any money yet. Melissa McDonough is also back in CD38, and now she’s joined by Marvalette Hunter, former Chief of Staff to then-Mayor Turner and former Chief Development Officer for the Harris County Housing Authority. I’ll be looking for her October report. Again, any of these districts – and who knows, maybe others – could suddenly become a lot more competitive. We’ll know soon enough.