This is interesting on a couple of levels.
As the community prepares to decide who will represent Congressional District 18, understanding current voter preferences is essential. This poll, fielded September 27 to October 2, 2025, conducted with 557 respondents between ages 45 to 75, all verified voters who have participated in the last three Democratic primaries, offers a precise snapshot of the electorate.
The survey was distributed to 5,000 likely voters residing in Congressional District 18 and carries a margin of error of approximately ±3%. These results provide valuable insights into the mindset of highly reliable voters who will shape the outcome of this special election. This timely snapshot not only shows current preferences but also highlights the critical segments campaigns should prioritize in the closing weeks. Given the narrow margins among top contenders, targeted outreach and voter contact over the coming days could shift the trajectory of the race.
Candidate Performance
Christian Menefee currently leads the field, with 29.8% indicating their support. His coalition is anchored heavily by women, who make up 66.3% of his supporters. With 56 men (33.7%) and 110 women, Menefee demonstrates strong credibility among highly engaged voters, giving him an early advantage.
Amanda Edwards follows closely, securing 23.9%. Edwards’ base is also majority women, with 90 women (67.5%) and 43 men (32.5%). Her long-standing community ties and proven record of leadership continue to resonate strongly within the district.
Jolanda Jones shows notable momentum, especially in recent weeks. She has risen to 18.9%, with 80 women (76.2%) and 25 men (23.8%) supporting her. Jones’ campaign has generated late energy, particularly among women voters, positioning her as a serious contender in what remains a fluid race.
Undecided voters remain a significant bloc, totaling 22.8%. Among them, 83 women (68.5%) and 40 men (31.5%) reflect the district’s heavy female electorate. This group represents the true pivot point of the race, and their eventual decision will likely determine the outcome.
Carmen María Montiel maintains 5.9%, all of whom are women. While her share of the vote remains limited, her presence demonstrates niche but consistent backing.
George Foreman IV registers 0.5%, entirely male. While numerically small, this support illustrates the potential for alternative or outsider candidates to attract attention within a highly engaged electorate.
There’s some more to the memo but this is the main point of interest. There were a couple of internal campaign polls released in September, and a Hobby Center poll from early August that also had Menefee and Edwards on top. You know my spiel about polling for special elections, but this caught my eye for several reasons. One, that it “was distributed to 5,000 likely voters”, from which the 557 responses came. All were in the age range of 45-75, and all were basically Dem primary voters. We don’t know how it was worded or how many candidates were listed. Isaiah Martin is not mentioned in this memo, so either his support was negligible or, well, I’m not sure. That Republican Carmen Montiel got almost six percent of the responses suggests that this was either an unusual sample of Dem primary voters or that party affiliation wasn’t mentioned.
Like I said, I don’t know how this was presented, what the questions looked like, how many candidate names were given – it makes no sense to mention sixteen names, but any omission is a distortion, no matter how small. I figure we’re likely to see another Hobby Center poll, maybe a Chron/KHOU poll, of this race and the At Large #4 race. We are now seeing some real campaign activity – at least I am, from Menefee, Edwards, Jones, and Martin. Early voting starts in two weeks, so look for a lot more of that now.