Wednesday was also the filing deadline for the CD18 special election. Amanda Edwards has a photo of the SOS proclamation that includes a listing of the candidates and their parties. This Community Impact story also has the lineup and campaign webpages where it could find them. A brief summary:
The Democrats that you’ve heard of:
Amanda Edwards
Christian Menefee
Isaiah Martin
Jolanda Jones
The Dems you probably haven’t heard of:
Feldon Bonner
Stephen Huey
Valencia Williams
The Republicans:
Theodis Daniel
Ollie Knox
Carmen Montiel
Carter Page
Ronald Whitfield
The independents:
Reyna Anderson
Vince Duncan
George Foreman IV
The Green:
Tammie Jean Rochester
That’s sixteen candidates in total, down from the insane earlier count of 29, of whom ten have webpages per that CI article. Zoe Cadore, who had done a pretty good job of fundraising so far and who was in that recent candidate forum, sent out an email on Wednesday saying that she had decided to end her campaign. I feel reasonably confident we’ll see her in the future.
The only recognizable names to me from the non-Dems are Foreman and Montiel, who ran against Sheila Jackson Lee in 2022 and got 26% of the vote. I’ll look to see who has raised what in the October finance reports, but I don’t expect any surprises.
I still think the single most likely outcome in November is a Menefee/Edwards runoff. Jolanda Jones probably has the best name recognition among Dems, and I’m sure Foreman will pick up a stray vote or two on the basis of his name. Countywide turnout in 2021 was 9.2% and in 2017 was 6.7% – those are the only two cycles we’ve had with an odd year and no City of Houston general election. At Large #4 may draw out a few voters, but this race is the marquee matchup and I would expect it to have turnout well in excess of the overall figure. Maybe 15-20%? I’m just guessing, and there weren’t any special elections in those years to provide a basis for comparison. We’ll see how visible the campaigns are, because that will be what drives the voters who don’t show up for the school board and Constitutional amendment elections out to the polls.