I figured there’d be another poll of this race from them.
Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards are leading the crowded race to fill Texas’ 18 Congressional District seat, according to a new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll.
The online survey, conducted Oct. 7–11 among 1,200 likely voters, found Menefee with 27% support and Edwards with 23%. State Rep. Jolanda Jones trailed at 15%, followed by Carmen Maria Montiel at 6%, George Foreman Jr. at 4%, Isaiah Martin at 4%, Carter Page at 3%, and Ronald Dwayne Whitfield at 2%. About 2% of voters were split among several other candidates, while 13% said they were undecided.
The results suggest that no candidate is on track to win more than half the vote, meaning the race will likely advance to a runoff early next year. The report notes that under federal election rules requiring extra time for military and overseas ballots, the runoff would probably take place in February 2026, roughly three months after the Nov. 4 election.
If no one wins outright in November, the poll points to a likely runoff between Menefee and Edwards. In that scenario, Menefee would have a slight edge, leading Edwards 36% to 34%, while about 1 in 5 voters said they’re still unsure.
Menefee would hold a larger lead if he faced Jones instead, 43% to 26%. Edwards would also beat Jones by a wide margin, 44% to 26%.
The survey found that the district’s likely voters are overwhelmingly Democratic, with 72% identifying with the party, 21% identifying as Republican, and 6% as independent. The electorate skews older, with two-thirds being 55 or older, and women make up 56% of likely voters.
You can see the poll memo here, with a link to the full report. This result is surprisingly close to the Texas Victory Consulting poll from earlier in the month, which had Menefee 30, Edwards 24, Jones 19. Both had Republican Carmen Montiel at six percent, which is much lower than what internal campaign polls had her at. For that matter, the UH/Hobby poll from August had Montiel at 14%, tied with Jones for third again behind Menefee and Edwards, who were tied for first. I suspect Montiel is more likely to get above ten percent (but not by much) than below, but this may be a function of the fact that Menefee, Edwards, and Jones are running visible campaigns and Montiel is not. I suspect the same is also true for Isaiah Martin, who hasn’t come close to the top in any poll so far.
But who knows, as always special elections are tough to sample. I won’t say that anything can happen, but any combination of Menefee, Edwards, and Jones ending up in the runoff is plausible to me. I’ll be reviewing the campaign finance reports soon, and you can go back and listen to my interviews as you see fit:
Amanda Edwards
Isaiah Martin
Christian Menefee
Jolanda Jones
Early voting begins Monday. Are you ready to vote yet? Campos and Houston Public Media have more.