Only one-third of Texas voters approve of the GOP-led effort to redraw the state’s congressional map, according to a recent statewide poll, which found that independent and Democratic voters overwhelmingly opposed the mid-decade redistricting and would rather give control of Texas’ political maps to an appointed commission.
Just 13% of independent voters approve of state lawmakers redrawing the congressional map, while 41% are against it, according to the survey released Tuesday by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. Overall, 34% of voters said they approved and 41% said they disapproved of the effort, with nearly two-thirds of Republicans voicing support.
The new map, signed into law by Gov. Greg Abbott on Aug. 29, aims to net five GOP seats in the 2026 midterms. The poll surveyed 1,200 voters across Texas between Aug. 22 and Sept. 1, going into the field just before lawmakers sent the map to Abbott’s desk.
The Texas Politics Project poll also measured where Texas voters stand on a range of other issues, including the GOP’s tax and spending megabill approved earlier this summer. The majority of Democrats and independents have decidedly negative opinions about the legislation, fueling its underwater rating — 32% approval vs. 45% disapproval — among statewide voters.
Republicans polled had more favorable views. Sixty-five percent of GOP voters approve of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, with 28% expressing strong approval.
Few voters expect the megabill to actually lower their taxes and health care costs. Democrats and independents think the bill will increase how much they pay, according to the poll. Almost half of Republicans expect the bill to lower taxes, but just 21% said they anticipated lower health care costs.
Texans are also concerned about the rising prices of food and consumer goods, especially as the impacts of Trump’s tariffs loom, the poll found. Only about a quarter of voters said their economic circumstances are better off now than they were a year ago.
We’ve seen plenty of polls in recent years in which an issue question gets a favorable result for Democrats. Pick an issue – guns, abortion, school finance – you can find plenty of such polls. The formula is strong but roughly equivalent and opposite levels of support from Dems and Republicans, and at least a plurality of indies siding with the Dems. That’s enough to tilt the issue towards the Dem position, sometimes with a small majority, sometimes with a plurality.
What caught my eye about this poll, at least on the redistricting question, is that Dems were more against it than Republicans were in favor of it, by a 78-65 margin. Compare that 65% Republican approval of redistricting – and the OBBBA, as noted – to the 85% GOP approval of Trump, or the 76% GOP approval of Greg Abbott. Where did that dropoff come from, and does it mean something?
Now to be sure, the Dems’ 78% disapproval of redistricting falls short of their 93% disapproval of Trump and 89% disapproval of Abbott. Some of this for sure is just a portion of voters not paying as much attention to the news as the rest of us do. But no matter how you look at it, the Dems have more intensity. Which in an off year election, one where Trump isn’t on the ballot – though he’s doing everything he can to put a thumb on it – might make a difference.
As always, this is one poll for one month. I haven’t studied the archives of the UT Politics Project, and I haven’t seen other results about this. It’s also many months before we vote, and a lot of things will happen between now and then. I’m just saying, for what it’s worth, that I noticed this.