Make of this what you will. It’s a national poll plus samples of likely voters in a variety of states, some red and some blue and some purple, including Texas. The numbers of interest for us:
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Joe Biden?
Very favorable = 20%
Somewhat favorable = 21%
Somewhat unfavorable = 13%
Very unfavorable = 44%
Other/Unsure = 0%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Donald Trump?
Very favorable = 26%
Somewhat favorable = 20%
Somewhat unfavorable = 9%
Very unfavorable = 44%
Other/Unsure = 2%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Greg Abbott?
Very favorable = 27%
Somewhat favorable = 22%
Somewhat unfavorable = 10%
Very unfavorable = 36%
Other/Unsure = 5%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Beto O’Rourke?
Very favorable = 28%
Somewhat favorable = 18%
Somewhat unfavorable = 10%
Very unfavorable = 38%
Other/Unsure = 6%
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for
Abbott = 48%
Beto = 46%
If the 2024 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for
Trump = 48%
Biden = 43%
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for
The Republican = 50%
The Democrat = 43%
I’m not familiar with this pollster. In the states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, they have pretty enthusiastic leads for Democratic candidates, but in the states where you’d expect Republicans to win they have them up by expectedly large margins. The Abbott/Beto race is the closest we’ve seen in any poll so far, but it’s not really an outlier. Abbott’s level of support is pretty consistently around 47-49 – he rarely if ever tops 50% in the polls – while Beto is usually around 42 or 43. It’s plausible to get this result just by the “don’t know” respondents leaning towards Beto. Note that this poll did not name either of the third party candidates, as some other polls have, so that could have a boosting effect for both Abbott and Beto as well. This is an optimistic result, and I’d like to see more like it before I fully bought in, but it’s not a bolt out of the blue. The Trump approval and 2024 numbers, the generic Congressional numbers, the Biden approval numbers, they’re all in line with other polls or in the case of the Congressional one leaning a bit Republican. Like I said, make of this what you will. See Lakshya Jain’s Twitter thread for more.
Fascinating that both Biden and Trump have a majority in the “unfavorable” range. Biden manages to be less favorable than Trump, even though the news blamed Trump for everything, but defends Biden and doesn’t cover things like Hunter Biden’s laptop. This is why I don’t waste my time voting, 81 million votes, not sure how Biden got more votes than Kennedy, Washington, and Lincoln combined. Of course Trump did, too with 75 million votes. You get over 150 million votes for the two most unpopular presidents ever.
Dr. Hochman, no one gives a shit about what was or wasn’t on Hunter Biden’s laptop…what with him not being an elected official and all.