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New SurveyUSA Governor’s poll

There’s a new SurveyUSA poll on the Texas Governor’s race. Here’s the result:

If the election for Governor of Texas were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Democrat Chris Bell? Independent “Kinky” Friedman? Republican Rick Perry? Independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn? Or some other candidate?

18%     Bell (D)
16%     Friedman (I)
41%     Perry (R)
20%     Strayhorn (I)
1%      Other
3%      Undecided

Basically, that’s a five-point dip for Strayhorn and a three-point gain for Bell, which stands in contrast to the previous poll that showed Strayhorn ahead of Bell by ten. Perry is two points better this time, while Friedman is the same.

1,200 Texas adults were interviewed 5/19/06 – 5/21/06. Of them, 1,021 were Registered Voters. Of them, 605 were judged to be “likely” voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

That’s an expectation of 59.3% turnout, which means I have the same problems with this result that I did with the other one. I’d really love to know how SUSA is coming up with this likely voter model. I’m going to have to see if I can find a contact to ask about that.

Interestingly, the first Rasmussen poll showed Strayhorn significantly ahead of Bell, which was then followed by a second result that showed the two of them virtually tied. That’s basically what happened here with SUSA. I don’t know what to make of that – it may just be random weirdness.

What is consistent is Perry’s hovering in the 40% range. If Bell can consolidate Democratic support, that’s a figure he can surpass in November. While I still believe that these polls are not taking into account historical rates of straight-ticket voting, which would guarantee Bell at least 20 to 25% of the final total, it’s clear he has his work cut out for him in this regard. Would someone please mail this result to Ben Barnes?

By the way, I think a poll designed to measure the preferences this year of people who have voted straight ticket for either party in the past would be a great idea. Everyone is guessing what the effect of Strayhorn and Friedman on the ballot will be with people who normally stick with one party. Why not ask them and see what happens? Maybe I’m right and straight-ticket Dems say they’ll do what they always do, and maybe I’m wrong. Why guess when you can measure? C’mon, pollsters, you know you want to do this!

SUSA link via Political Wire.

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  1. Mathwiz says:

    What’s with the 1% supporting “Other” in this poll? I’d guess there’s a Libertarian candidate on the ballot who might be drawing 1% support, but why not list him/her by name instead of “Other?” And if there’s no one else on the ballot, who are these 1% supporting?

    At any rate, it’s good to see Bell with a bit of momentum. Here’s hoping he can keep it up while Strayhorn keeps Perry down around 40%.

  2. Double B says:

    A bit of momentum? He’s one of the two major party candidates (and the only Democrat) for governor and he’s drawing 18%. First of all, I’d like to know to whom are registered Democrats throwing their votes? Secondly, what’s going on with the Bell campaign? I could put a picture of my cat with a D in parentheses to the right of it and get 18%.

    Texas has managed to make Idaho look like a Democratic hotbed.