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How low can COVID go?

I feel like this is more a function of time and evolution than anything else, but we’ll see.

New coronavirus cases across the greater Houston area dropped to their lowest level in four months, new data showed Monday, just days after Harris County’s COVID threat level dropped to yellow, signaling the virus is not immediately threatening the capacity of the region’s healthcare system.

The demise of the omicron wave appeared all but complete in the latest numbers from the Texas Medical Center, which collectively admitted 77 new COVID-19 patients daily last week, down 63 percent since February.

Across the region, daily infection rates are now roughly equal to those recorded during the lull that followed the delta wave in late November, before the more contagious omicron variant swept the globe. The figures come as the remaining indoor mask mandates expire across the country and as Americans report feeling increasingly exhausted — or altogether fed up — with pandemic restrictions.

Around 430 people tested positive for COVID each day last week, down 80 percent from last month, Texas Medical Center reported Monday morning.

Houston-area deaths from COVID have plummeted in tandem with falling case counts in recent weeks. A total of 4,288 residents have died since the pandemic began.

The figures confirm Houston is in a period of low transmission. How long it will last is uncertain. Some experts, including Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist with UTHealth School of Public Health, consider omicron’s relatively milder disease a “lucky” happenstance that may not be repeated in future iterations of the virus.

Viral waves typically arrive about six months apart, meaning another surge could begin by summer.

Well, the next wave may already be underway in Europe, though at this point it remains to be seen if it will result in anything like what we have seen before. At some level, if we can get enough people vaxxed and boosted, then at least the next wave should not be as hard on the hospitals and the mortuaries. That’s the goal at this point, minimize the damage. You would hope that by now we’ve learned from our past experience.

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One Comment

  1. D.R. says:

    The problem is the protection from these vaccines wanes… anybody without a booster who didn’t get Omicron may be out of luck for B2. Likewise anybody who was boosted before December may have minimal protection against this virus. Those who are at-risk need to start staying home in a few weeks to avoid hospitalization.