Runoff today in San Antonio

Today’s the day in San Antonio when the mayoral race gets settled once and for all. Phil Hardberger continues to hold a slight edge in the polls.

On the eve of the election, the race was too close to call, according to a final News 4 WOAI/Survey USA tracking poll among likely voters. The poll results released Monday had Hardberger with 52 percent and Castro with 47 percent — a virtual dead heat, considering the poll’s margin of error of 4 percentage points.

“Either side could win it at this point, even though Hardberger’s got the edge,” said Richard Gambitta, a political scientist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. “The challenge to Castro now is to get out his voters.”

As with the May 7 election, The Red State will be liveblogging today, so check with him for updates. The Jeffersonian feels pretty confident of a Hardberger win. On the other hand, Matt points to this Ken Rodriguez column which suggests some keys for the day, which points to a Castro win:

It would help if there were a City Council runoff on Schubert’s turf. There isn’t.

It would help if there were no runoffs in Castro’s backyard. There are two.

It would help if Castro had a weak grassroots organization. He doesn’t.

It would help if Hardberger and Schubert were not political opposites. They are.

It would help if Hardberger could count on a heavy turnout of Schubert supporters. He can’t.

The candidate who probably can count on a heavy turnout is Castro.

The last time there were runoffs in Districts 6 and 7, more people voted in Round 2 than in Round 1.

That’s one reason I give Castro a slight edge in the runoff. There are others.

Everyone agrees this should be a close race. We’ll see how it goes. Good luck to both candidates.

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