Measles update: Yes, there are still new cases being reported

It’s still a thing.

The Texas Department of State Health Services says three new measles cases have been detected in the last week in connection to an outbreak in West Texas.

The state has been tracking case numbers since the outbreak began in late January.

Three new cases not believed to be connected to the West Texas outbreak were reported in Lamar County.

Since late January, 753 measles cases have been confirmed by state officials.

Gaines County, the center of the outbreak, has reported 414 cases since the outbreak began in January. The county accounts for more than half of the state’s cases.

Only Gaines and Lamar counties have been designated as “outbreak counties” by DSHS.

The new cases for the past week are from Bexar, El Paso, and Gaines counties, with one each.

There have been 99 patients hospitalized since the outbreak started, an increase of two over last week’s update. The state says these hospitalizations are from earlier in the outbreak.

Since January, 21 cases have been reported in people who were considered fully vaccinated and 22 cases in people who only had one dose of the vaccine. 710 of the 753 people who tested positive were unvaccinated.

I think Bexar County was the last big urban county to report a case. Here’s a bit more on that.

The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) added Bexar County to the list of counties with a case of measles linked to the West Texas outbreak on Tuesday. This is the first measles infection in Bexar County since 2019, when there were two measles cases.

The case confirmed this week in Bexar County is an isolated infection, according to San Antonio Metropolitan Health District Director Dr. Claude Jacob. It was reported on June 15 and investigated by Metro Health’s epidemiology team, which found no additional public exposure. That was followed by a state investigation, which confirmed a link to the simmering measles outbreak that originated in Gaines County in January.

As with all the others, one hopes that this remains an isolated incident. In the meantime, more measles cases from this outbreak continue to appear in New Mexico. There are more cases from other outbreaks around the country.

Michigan has its second measles outbreak of the year, Utah has seven cases and health workers in New Mexico are rushing to contain an outbreak in a county jail.

But for the first time in months, Texas confirmed no additional measles cases this week tied to a major outbreak that raged through the late winter and spring.

There have been 1,227 confirmed measles cases this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.

There are three other major outbreaks in North America. The longest, in Ontario, Canada, has resulted in 2,212 cases from mid-October through June 24. The province logged its first death June 5 in a baby who got congenital measles but also had other preexisting conditions.

Another outbreak in Alberta, Canada, has sickened 1,122 as of Friday. And the Mexican state of Chihuahua had 2,485 measles cases and eight deaths as of Thursday, according to data from the state health ministry.

Other U.S. states with active outbreaks — which the CDC defines as three or more related cases — include Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota and Oklahoma.

That story is from June 27, so the “no new cases” status didn’t last long. Here’s a map of where the cases are around the country – as you can see, it’s easier to name the states that have not seen any measles infections than those that have. If you want to keep a closer eye on things, here you go.

A new online tool developed by Austin Public Health is now being used by major cities and states across the country.

The measles outbreak calculator, created with the Texas Advanced Computing Center, shows the potential consequences of outbreaks in communities with declining vaccination rates. The tool launched in March and is being used by New York City, Houston, Dallas, and the states of Texas and Massachusetts. Illinois has also replicated the model for local use.

“In communities where vaccination rates dip even slightly, the risk of measles outbreaks rises dramatically,” said Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County Health Authority. “This new measles calculator puts that reality into stark relief, showing how fast measles can spread and making the invisible visible. It’s a vital tool that empowers schools, healthcare providers and families to act now, keep students safe and strengthen our collective immunity.”

School superintendents, emergency medical services and regional health departments are using the calculator to make informed decisions about outbreak prevention.

The project involved collaboration with the University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School and other institutions, along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The calculator uses a model to estimate outbreak potential based on community vaccination rates, predicting outcomes from 200 simulations and defining outbreaks as 20 or more new infections.

The tool can be viewed here.

Very cool, and kudos to all involved. It’s nice to know that science can still march onward, despite all the obstacles now in its path.

And finally, on a tangential note.

A new, more contagious COVID-19 variant — and the particularly painful sore throat it causes — is spreading this summer.

NB.1.8.1, or Nimbus, is more contagious because it is better able to bind to cell receptors in the body as compared to recent past variants, said Erin Carlson, a clinical professor at the University of Texas at Arlington and an infectious disease expert with a doctorate in public health.

“It’s just like the difference between — for those of us originally from snowy, cold places — if you’re slipping and sliding in your regular athletic shoes on the ice, versus if you put crampon spikes on your shoes, how that’s going to dig into the ice,” Carlson said.

Those infected with this variant have reported a very painful sore throat, which has earned the nickname “razor blade throat,” and more are experiencing gastrointestinal symptoms like nausea, bloating and diarrhea than did with past variants, Carlson said.

Otherwise, the symptoms are the same as past iterations of the virus — including fever, cough, congestion and fatigue.

Like other variants, some individuals face a higher risk of getting seriously ill, such as those who are diabetic, immunocompromised or immunosuppressed. Carlson said those infected should keep their distance from others while contagious.

“It’s still very important that if we think we’re sick to stay at home, to wear a mask, those kinds of things, so we don’t infect somebody who could potentially get very sick from this,” Carlson said.

Although Nimbus is more contagious, Carlson said, it is not more dangerous or deadly for those who catch it.

“It’s not actually causing more damage to the host, it just has the weird symptom of this sore throat,” she said.

From a risk assessment perspective, it’s a tossup whether getting a booster shot would make a material difference. The COVID vaxx does an excellent job of keeping you out of the hospital, but only does so much to keep you from getting sick in the first place. You could get a booster, if you wanted to and one were available for you, but it may or may not keep you from getting the “razor blade throat”. But if you want to drag RFK Jr through the mud for his anti-vaxx idiocy and the way we’re feeling a lot more exposed with COVID anyway, by all means be my guest.

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