Before I address that question, here’s an important bit of business to resolve.
Illinois courts will not force Texas Democrats back to the state, a judge ruled Wednesday, dealing a blow to Attorney General Ken Paxton and House Speaker Dustin Burrows’ efforts to restore the headcount necessary to pass the GOP’s new congressional map.
Burrows issued civil arrest warrants Aug. 4 for the dozens of House Democrats who left the state to deny quorum, the minimum number of people required for the House to take up legislation. Those warrants can only be enforced within state lines, making them largely symbolic for the lawmakers who had absconded to Illinois, Massachusetts and New York.
But Burrows and Paxton took the unusual step of asking courts in those states to carry out the warrants and bring the lawmakers back to Texas.
On Wednesday, Illinois Judge Scott Larson rejected the petition, ruling that Paxton and Burrows had “failed to present a legal basis for the court” to take up the issue.
Illinois courts’ cannot consider whether “foreign legislators” were willfully evading their duties, and they cannot direct Illinois law enforcement to execute civil quorum warrants upon “nonresidents temporarily located in the State of Illinois,” Larson said, noting that the warrants specifically say they are to be enforced within Texas. Even if the court were to take up the case, which Larson ruled it lacks the ability to do, the response would be a ruling on whether the lawmakers are willfully disobeying a court order — not an order returning them to Texas as Paxton and Burrows demanded, Larson said.
See here for the background. I’m not sure if the proper reaction to this is “womp womp” or “neener neener”, but either way it’s always a delight to see Ken Paxton get beclowned. Remember, these jokers venue-shopped their lawsuit, filing it in a county that “voted for Trump by 47 percentage points in 2024” even though the Dems were nowhere near it. And yet, the judge they got told them to GTFO with this malarkey. Whatever else is going on in the current hellscape, that made yesterday a good day.
Back to the headline question. There was a report from KTRK on Tuesday night that seemed to be well sourced claiming that Dems would return after the first session ended. Not so fast, it seems.
With Texas expected to end its first special legislative session Friday and immediately begin a new one, the dozens of Democratic legislators who fled the state to block Republicans’ redistricting proposal are hammering out a plan for their return home.
Texas Democrats met late into the night Tuesday then again Wednesday, including breaking into smaller groups, to discuss their next steps and what their ultimate exit strategy looked like after spending the last 10 days out of the state, according to four sources close to the talks.
But those sources said the lawmakers do not yet have full consensus on an exit plan. “It’s hard to get folks on the same page,” said one of the sources, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal party strategy.
Still, there does appear to be agreement on one point: The Democrats won’t come back to Austin until Republicans officially bring the first special session to a close. They’re beginning to describe their ability to block Republicans from passing their new map that could net the party as many as five seats in the U.S. House during the first special session as proof of victory.
[…]
So while it appears likely that Democrats will succeed in delaying the process enough to force a second special session, there is an acknowledgement among the caucus that their protest will need to come to an end some point soon.
“From the get-go, they knew they were never going to stay out of Texas forever. People didn’t expect them to. The goal that the smartest among them set was: We need to bring national attention to this issue so other states are ready to counter if Republicans really do this,” one aide to a Texas House Democrat breaking quorum told NBC News.
“They’ve done that. That’s as much as anyone could expect — they are a minority in a legislature, but the entire country turned their attention to this issue. And the fact that California and New York are now considering redrawing their maps [in response to Texas] is a win,” the aide continued.
The aide added that while it’s “hard” to strike a victorious message if Republicans ultimately enact the new maps, as expected, it’s incumbent on Democrats across the country to drive the point home.
“This is a communications battle. When you’re in the minority, what you have is a bullhorn and an ability to draw attention to issues. Eventually, the majority will vote. That’s democracy,” the aide said.
My take on this is that while they probably won’t be boarding planes on Saturday, the end of the walkout is in sight. As it was always going to be, for reasons we have discussed before. Daily Kos adds a bit of detail:
Despite earlier speculation that Democrats might return this weekend, Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu made clear on Wednesday that his colleagues are prepared to again deny the quorum needed to pass the GOP maps.
“What happens next is entirely up to Greg Abbott. After deliberation among our caucus, we have reached a consensus: Texas House Democrats refuse to give him a quorum to pass his racist maps that silence more than 2 million Black and Latino Texans,” Wu’s statement read. “Texas House Democrats will issue our demands for a second special session on Friday. Abbott can choose to govern for Texas families, or he can keep serving Trump and face the consequences we’ve unleashed nationwide.”
We should know more tomorrow, but do bear in mind that this is a situation where even a couple of outliers can force the issue by simply returning home themselves. That’s basically how the 2021 quorum break ended. If there’s one lesson I hope everyone learned from that, it’s that it’s much better to return together, as they had left together, rather than have a few stragglers come in on their own. If that means the group comes back earlier than some might like, so be it. Acting as one maintains the show of strength fueled by unity. Anything else undermines it. Here’s hoping they get that right.
On a subject we touched on yesterday, we have another poll about how people have viewed this standoff.
A recent YouGov poll found that large majorities of Americans see gerrymandering as a major problem, think it is unfair, and say it should be illegal. But what do Americans think about the specific situation in Texas? In another survey, we found that few Americans approve of Texas’ redistricting proposal. Americans are divided over whether to approve or disapprove of state legislators leaving Texas to prevent a vote, but are more likely to disapprove than to approve of expelling absent members from the state legislature.
About one-third (30%) of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Texas state legislators’ plan to create five new Republican-leaning districts. About half (48%) disapprove of the proposal.
The vast majority of Democrats (85%) and about half of Independents (51%) disapprove of the plan, compared to only 6% of Democrats and 18% of Independents who approve. Republicans are far more likely to approve (66%) than to disapprove (11%) of the proposal. Republicans express less-passionate attitudes about the proposal than Democrats do: Only 38% of Republicans strongly approve of the plan, while 73% of Democrats strongly disapprove of it.
While few Americans approve of Texas’ redistricting plan, there is less consensus over whether legislators in the opposition are right to delay the vote by leaving the state. Americans are slightly more likely to disapprove than to approve of legislators leaving the state (41% vs. 37%). That difference is within the margin of error for this survey.
Democrats are much more likely to approve (62%) than to disapprove (25%) of the attempt to prevent a vote. Republicans are much more likely to disapprove (64%) than to approve (16%). Like with Americans overall, Independents are about evenly split: 34% approve and 34% disapprove.
About as good as you could ask for. The keys are the stronger numbers for Dems than for Republicans, as I’d take that as a measure of intensity, and a good majority of indies on our side. I still doubt this swings anyone’s vote, but if it gets Dems more fired up than Republicans while not alienating indies, that’s a win. Olivia Julianna and Lone Star Left have more.